Tape 167 - Domestic Economy, Vacuum in Far East, Chile Inflation

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-	Hello, this is William Clark of the Chicago Tribune	0:02
	saying welcome once again to a visit	0:05
	with the distinguished economist, Professor Milton Friedman,	0:07
	of the University of Chicago.	0:10
	We're recording this visit very early,	0:12
	just about the turn of the month into May, 1975.	0:16
	And Dr. Friedman has just returned from a long trip	0:20
	that carried into Chile, to Australia, and to Japan,	0:23
	and we want to hear about situation in those countries	0:27
	and how they reacted to developments in Vietnam.	0:30
	But first, Dr. Friedman, I wonder	0:33
	if anything has occurred while you were away	0:35
	to change your thinking about the timing	0:37
	of an economic upturn here at home?	0:39
-	I have only had time, since I got back,	0:42
	to look rather casually at the figures	0:44
	that have been coming out.	0:47
	But they, as well as the ones I saw while I was away,	0:49
	after all, there is a world news service	0:53
	and it's amazing how easy it is to keep up	0:55
	with what's happening in the United States	0:57
	from the most distant points in the world,	0:59
	but the combination leads me to feel	1:01
	that the position I was taking earlier	1:05
	is essentially the same.	1:08
	Before I left, it looked as if the Fed	1:10
	had changed its monetary policy	1:13
	and had started on a monetary explosion in February.	1:15
	The most recent figures which I have seen,	1:20
	which go through the middle of April, confirm that,	1:23
	that whereas the quantity of money narrowly to fund M-1	1:30
	had grown from July of 1974 to February '75	1:36
	at the extremely low rate of 1.4%.	1:45
	In the past two months, from February to now,	1:49
	it has grown at the rate of over 12%,	1:51
	which is an extremely rapid rate of growth.	1:54
	The same thing is true for M-2.	1:57
	Money plus time deposits, including time deposits,	1:59
	for the corresponding two dates	2:04
	from July 1974 to February 1975,	2:07
	M-2 grew at the rate of 5.7%,	2:13
	and for the past two months at the rate of 12 1/2%,	2:16
	or more than twice as much.	2:20
	Thus both monetary series combined to suggest	2:22
	that there has been a very rapid expansion	2:26
	in the quantity of money in the past couple of months,	2:29
	and that the turnaround came just about early in February.	2:31
	If one takes into account	2:37
	that there is typically a six to ninth months lag	2:39
	between a change in the rate of growth of the money supply	2:41
	and in the economy, this would lead you	2:44
	to something like August to October	2:48
	as the expected time of the bottoming out of the recession.	2:50
	That's, of course, contingent on a continuation	2:54
	of monetary expansion, not necessarily at this pace,	2:56
	but at a pace larger than that which prevailed	3:00
	at the end of last year.	3:06
	I continue to believe that the real danger	3:09
	is not that money will grow too slowly,	3:11
	but that it will grow too rapidly.	3:14
	Rates of growth such as have occurred	3:17
	in the past two months, if continued,	3:19
	would spell a resumption of inflation	3:21
	in late '76 or early '77 at very high rates.	3:23
	It remains to be seen whether that fear will be realized.	3:30
	The Federal Reserve people and others	3:33
	talk about maintaining moderation in monetary growth.	3:38
	One could justify such rapid rates of growth	3:41
	for a two months period, on the ground that you were	3:44
	offsetting the extremely slow rate of growth earlier,	3:49
	and that what one should really look at	3:53
	was a longer term rate of growth,	3:54
	the rate of growth over a year,	3:57
	rather than the rate of growth over these brief periods.	3:58
	Over the past year, the rate of growth of M-1	4:01
	has been at only 4%, and of M-2 has been only 7%.	4:04
	Those are rates of growth which would be good	4:09
	for the long run.	4:11
	But, as is already clear from what I've said,	4:12
	those averages are made up of two very different periods,	4:16
	extremely slow growth for the period	4:21
	from mid '74 to early '75,	4:23
	and extremely rapid growth for the past two months.	4:26
	We shall have to wait and see how that develops.	4:29
	My own guess is that while the rate of growth	4:31
	may not be maintained at this high level,	4:35
	it will be maintained at a higher level than is desirable	4:37
	under the pressures which will come	4:40
	from the need to finance very large deficits	4:42
	and from the continuing concern about high unemployment.	4:45
	I continue to believe that this tendency will be reinforced	4:49
	by the sigh of relief, which everybody is now expressing	4:53
	at the sharp decline in the rate of inflation.	4:58
	But that sharp decline in the rate of inflation	5:03
	will prove temporary, unless monetary growth is pulled back	5:05
	to lower levels.	5:10
-	Thank you.	5:11
	Now there are two sets of observations	5:13
	that you might make about your travels, Dr. Friedman.	5:15
	One would be essentially political,	5:19
	including the reactions you saw	5:21
	to the developments in Vietnam,	5:23
	and the other would be economic.	5:25
	I hope that we'll have time for you to do a little of both,	5:27
	but I wonder if we might start first with the political.	5:30
-	Now, ordinarily, I am hesitant to comment	5:34
	on the political situation--	5:36
-	Yes, I know.
-	As an economist, but this was rather	5:38
	an exceptional circumstance.	5:40
	I was in Australia at the time that Cambodia fell	5:42
	and while the final stages of the Vietnam tragedy	5:47
	were unfolding.	5:50
	I was in Japan just a few days ago,	5:52
	when Saigon was on the verge of being entered	5:57
	by the Vietcong and the North Vietnamese.	6:01
	Both countries are critical countries in the Far East.	6:07
	Both are highly affluent countries.	6:12
	They both are extremely tempting targets	6:15
	for anybody who would want to expand	6:18
	or want to get further economic power.	6:20
	Australia is, in some way, an even more tempting target	6:22
	than Japan, 13 1/2 million people on a continent	6:25
	with a land area roughly the same	6:32
	as that of the United States,	6:34
	with tremendous mineral wealth of coal, of iron ore.	6:36
	You name it, Australia has it.	6:41
	Australia has depended, and Japan have both depended	6:45
	for many years upon the umbrella of the United States.	6:48
	Both have been maintaining military forces	6:55
	that are very small compared to their potential.	6:59
	That is, if you take the expenditures on armed forces,	7:02
	the percentage of national income spent	7:06
	is very much lower in both Australia and in Japan	7:08
	than it is in the United States.	7:11
	By very much lower, I mean 1/2 or 1/3 as much.	7:13
	I don't remember the exact numbers.	7:17
	Both were obviously unsettled by the collapse in Vietnam,	7:21
	but the main impression I carried away	7:27
	was that neither had reacted to it in a realistic sense.	7:30
	Both were continuing to have a artificial appreciation	7:34
	of the role that the United States could or would play	7:40
	in the Far East.	7:43
	Let me illustrate that by a little anecdote.	7:45
	I talked with the head of one of the oil companies,	7:47
	large oil companies in Australia.	7:51
	We came around to talking about the consequences	7:55
	for Australia or for the Middle East, Far East.	7:57
	I mentioned the possibility that Iran,	8:02
	with its new-found munitions, with its rearming,	8:04
	would seek to make itself the master of the Persian Gulf,	8:09
	might move in and try to take over Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,	8:11
	and the other countries.	8:14
	"Oh," said my host, "that won't happen."	8:15
	"Why not?" Said I.	8:18
	"Why, the U.S. wouldn't let it happen." He said.	8:20
	Now that is an attitude that seemed to me inconceivable.	8:23
	He was very much taken aback when I told him	8:28
	that I thought there was not a chance in a million	8:31
	that the U.S. people would stand for American troops	8:33
	being sent to the Mid East in order to prevent Iran	8:37
	from taking over Saudi Arabia.	8:41
	In general, what I'm getting at is a lack of appreciation	8:44
	of the vacuum that has emerged in the world as a whole,	8:49
	not only in the Far East, as a result	8:54
	of the events in Vietnam.	8:56
	The official party in Australia is the Labor Party.	8:59
	It took power about two years ago	9:02
	after a long period out in the wilderness,	9:04
	23 years of a prior government.	9:06
	It was a party that pulled Australia out of Vietnam,	9:10
	and indeed, one of the major forces	9:14
	that enabled the Labor Party to come to power	9:18
	was the great dispute within Australia	9:21
	about whether Australia ought to be involved in Vietnam.	9:23
	And it was exactly the same kind of a dispute	9:25
	that we had in this country and the arguments	9:28
	about the Vietnamese situation.	9:32
	The present Deputy Prime Minister of Australia,	9:35
	a man by the name of Dr. Cairns,	9:38
	was one of the leaders in the so-called Peace Movement.	9:41
	He, in fact, almost exalted in triumph on TV	9:45
	at the Vietcong's capture of South Vietnam.	9:49
	He restrained his exaltation	9:55
	cuz it was obviously politically unwise to do so,	9:57
	but it was very clear that he was extremely happy	10:00
	at the outcome.	10:02
	The official policy of the Labor Party	10:04
	with respect to defense is premised on a report	10:08
	in which the key statement is that Australia faces no threat	10:11
	from the outside for the next 10 years,	10:15
	for at least the next 10 years.	10:17
	That's the atmosphere within which policy is being made,	10:19
	and it's quite clear that there is no disposition	10:22
	at the moment to do anything	10:24
	about increasing their own armed strength.	10:26
	And when you ask them, the more knowledgeable ones	10:29
	are concerned about this.	10:32
	They feel that Australia oughta do more to defend itself.	10:34
	But they are continuing to rely on the United States	10:37
	as the ultimate source of strength.	10:41
	The same thing occurs in Great Britain, I mean, in Japan.	10:44
	When I talked to the editor	10:49
	of one of the major newspapers in Japan,	10:51
	he was, himself, extremely concerned	10:54
	about the Russian and the Chinese threat to Japan.	10:56
	He has always been a strong supporter	11:03
	of a Japanese-American alliance,	11:05
	always one of the people whom I would have regarded	11:07
	as pro American, and he still is.	11:10
	He personally felt that Japan	11:14
	probably oughta be very concerned about its own safety,	11:18
	but his attitude was that the constitution	11:22
	which the U.S. forced on Japan after the war	11:25
	makes it illegal for Japan to rearm, and that beyond that,	11:28
	any government which sought to rearm on any major scale	11:33
	would be out of office almost instantaneously	11:37
	as a result of the reaction of the public at large.	11:39
	So his attitude was, "Well, maybe we can't	11:42
	"depend on the United States,	11:44
	"but we have to depend on the United States.	11:45
	"It's the only recourse we have."	11:47
-	Which concerns Japan more, Russia or China?	11:51
-	I would say at the moment,	11:54
	the more immediate fear is that of Russia,	11:55
	because of the Kuril Islands	11:57
	and the fishing rights up in the north	11:59
	and the dispute about that.	12:00
	So, moreover, I think that the Japanese	12:02
	kind of have a feeling that they know better	12:05
	how to get along with the Chinese	12:07
	than they do how to get along with the Russians.	12:09
	Now this is an interesting thing,	12:12
	because the fact is that while Japan has, in a way,	12:13
	severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan	12:18
	to renew them with mainland China,	12:20
	the trade which it is now carrying on with Taiwan	12:22
	is considerably larger than the trade	12:25
	which it is carrying on with mainland China.	12:27
-	That's interesting.	12:30
-	Of course, I must confess personally,	12:31
	with respect to Japan, I have very mixed feelings.	12:33
	I don't know whether I am more worried	12:35
	about the possibility that they will rearm	12:38
	or about the possibility that they won't,	12:40
	because neither one is a very happy thing.	12:43
	The fundamental thing that comes out of all of this,	12:45
	in my mind, is that there is a real vacuum of power,	12:48
	not only in the Far East but in the world.	12:54
	When Great Britain was the defender and guardian	12:56
	of the world's peace and it gave up that task,	13:01
	we were there to take over.	13:04
	Now that we are giving up that task,	13:07
	and I see no other way to describe	13:08
	what's happening in this country	13:11
	than to say that we are giving up this task,	13:12
	that there is a tremendous isolationist movement	13:14
	sweeping the country, that we are going to retreat back,	13:17
	into not even a fortress America,	13:20
	but we have the same attitudes, it seems to me,	13:22
	that our defense needs no strengthening	13:26
	that Japan and Australia has.	13:29
	I don't believe that they have different attitudes,	13:30
	really fundamentally on this, than the American people have.	13:33
	I think we are all living, in a sense, in a fool's paradise,	13:36
	in a sense of supposing that a vacuum can exist	13:39
	for a long time without any harm.	13:42
	Now maybe that's right.	13:45
	I had breakfast in Tokyo with a group of graduates	13:47
	of the University of Chicago,	13:51
	half Japanese and half Americans	13:52
	who were over there for various business ventures,	13:54
	and one of the Americans there maintained very strenuously	13:57
	that the vacuum idea was a meaningless concept	14:02
	because the world was perfectly safe	14:06
	without any single great power there to guard it.	14:08
	I hope he's right but I fear he is not,	14:11
	and I believe, therefore, that the next five or 10 years	14:15
	are going to be very dangerous years,	14:18
	not only in the Far East, but throughout much of the world.	14:20
-	Those are interesting and certainly provocative comments	14:24
	on the political aspect of what you observed,	14:28
	Professor Friedman, I wonder if we might turn now	14:31
	to the economic side.	14:33
	How's the inflation in Chile these days?	14:35
	(laughter)	14:38
-	Well, Chile is a textbook example	14:39
	of what a real honest to God inflation is like.	14:43
	I may say inflation plagues all of the countries I was at,	14:48
	but with rather differences in Chile,	14:51
	which I'll come back to in more detail in a moment.	14:53
	Inflation is currently running at the rate	14:56
	of something like 300 to 400% a year.	14:58
	In Australia, it's currently running at 17% a year,	15:02
	and it's been going up in Australia.	15:07
	In Japan, it's currently running at about 15% a year,	15:11
	and it's been coming down from about 30%.	15:14
	So that all three countries, like the United States,	15:20
	have had an inflation problem.	15:24
	The Chilean problem is the easiest one to describe.	15:27
	It is a carryover from a long period	15:31
	of developments in Chile.	15:35
	It's tempting to think of it	15:37
	as simply a momentary phenomenon	15:39
	arising out of the Allende regime,	15:42
	the overthrow of the Allende regime	15:45
	and the establishment of a military junta,	15:47
	but the roots go back much earlier than that.	15:50
	They really go back to something like 1908,	15:53
	when Chile was one of the earliest countries,	15:56
	certainly in the Western Hemisphere,	16:00
	to start on the road toward a welfare state.	16:02
	And fundamentally, the basic problems of Chile today	16:05
	are very much the same as the basic problems	16:09
	of Great Britain today.	16:12
	They stem ultimately from a welfare state,	16:13
	carried to a point at which, on the one hand,	16:16
	it absorbs so large a fraction of the nation's income	16:20
	that it cannot be met with the kind of taxes	16:24
	that people are really willing to bear.	16:27
	And on the other hand, it involves so large an intervention	16:30
	and private activity as to destroy individual incentive	16:33
	and the free market system.	16:36
	I was very much struck by the parallel, in this respect,	16:38
	not only in Chile, but all of us	16:42
	are going down the same path.	16:44
	From this longer range point of view,	16:45
	Chile is a cautionary tale that we should all look at	16:48
	with great care, because it brings out in sharp contrast	16:51
	the possible consequences of the past	16:59
	that Britain has followed, that the U.S. has followed,	17:01
	that Australia is following, that Japan is following.	17:04
	The common feature of all of the countries around the world	17:08
	is that as it goes down onto a welfare state line,	17:11
	the fraction of income which government spends	17:14
	tends to go up.	17:17
	As that fraction tends to go up,	17:18
	it becomes more and more difficult	17:20
	to finance it out of taxes, which the public	17:22
	is voluntarily willing to bear.	17:24
	There is more and more pressure to turn	17:26
	to the inflationary tax.	17:28
	Moreover, it stimulates social unrest,	17:29
	because to begin with in this process,	17:33
	it's possible to provide substantial benefits	17:36
	to small groups at very minor costs to a large group.	17:38
	Taxpayers are a large silent majority.	17:42
	As the process proceeds,	17:47
	this becomes more and more difficult,	17:49
	and finally you're getting to the point	17:51
	where 50% of the people are trying to get funds	17:53
	out of the other 50%.	17:55
	And at that point, you have added to the economic problem,	17:56
	the political problem of a breakdown in political cohesion.	18:01
	I think Britain is very close to the end of that process,	18:05
	as I've said before on these tapes.	18:08
	Now, go back to the Chilean case,	18:11
	it's a relatively poor country.	18:13
	The per capita income in Chile in real terms,	18:15
	if you believe the numbers that come out,	18:18
	is about 1/10th of that in the United States.	18:20
	That's probably an exaggeration	18:23
	because these international comparisons	18:25
	tend to overstate differences in income,	18:28
	but it is a relatively poor country.	18:30
	That country is one which had a very long tradition	18:33
	of a political democracy in a reasonably free society,	18:36
	the longest in South America.	18:40
	The Allende regime brought that to an end,	18:43
	but the Allende regime was a logical consequence	18:45
	of what had gone down before.	18:48
	It was not introducing anything very different.	18:49
	It was just carrying out to their logical implication	18:52
	many of the laws that had been passed before.	18:55
	The junta took over from the Allende regime.	18:58
	It is not a free government by any manner or means.	19:01
	It certainly is a dictatorial government,	19:05
	but Chile had only bad choices at that time.	19:08
	To turn to the economic side of it,	19:14
	the basic situation is that government spending in Chile,	19:17
	at all levels, amounts to about 40% of the national income.	19:21
	That's not very different from the percentage	19:26
	in the United States, and it's very much lower	19:28
	than the percentage in Great Britain,	19:30
	where government spending is now approaching 60%	19:32
	of the national income.	19:34
	But, as I mentioned before, Chile is a far poorer country	19:36
	than either Britain or the United States.	19:39
	Of the 40% of the national income being spent by government,	19:45
	roughly 30% is currently being raised by taxes.	19:50
	I might mention that the 40% is lower and the 30% is higher	19:53
	than at the end of the Allende regime,	19:58
	when the Allende regime had driven the spending higher	20:01
	and taxes lower.	20:05
	And several of the first acts of the government that came in	20:07
	were to try to reform the collection	20:12
	of taxes on the one hand	20:13
	and to hold down government spending on the other.	20:15
	But they have not gone anything like, so far,	20:17
	as they would like to go, or as would be desirable to go.	20:20
	At any rate, the bare facts, 40% government spending,	20:23
	30% taxes, leaving 10% that has to be raised	20:26
	in some other way.	20:30
	With inflation at rates which ran as high as 900%,	20:32
	at the very early stages of the takeover by the junta,	20:37
	capital market has been almost completely destroyed,	20:42
	so there is no way the government can finance	20:44
	any of its expenditures by issuing bonds or securities.	20:46
	Although, of course, any that it does issue are indexed.	20:49
	The only other recourse is printing money,	20:54
	and here again, the situation is very simple.	20:57
	The Allende regime took over	21:00
	what had been private commercial banks,	21:01
	they are all in government hands.	21:03
	In order to try to offset its own inflationary actions,	21:05
	it raised reserve requirements on them	21:09
	so that 85% of the assets of the government banks	21:11
	are pure cash.	21:14
	As a result, it's approximately correct to say that 100%	21:16
	of all money issued is pure government money,	21:21
	and that 100% of all new money issued	21:24
	goes to pay for government spending.	21:26
	It's a straight, clear, fiscal deficit,	21:27
	as clear as anything could be.	21:30
	Now, the arithmetic of it works out very simply.	21:32
	The tax base is the amount of cash.	21:36
	Inflation is a tax.	21:39
	And here's a clear case that the tax base	21:40
	is the amount of cash that the public holds.	21:43
	The amount of cash that the public holds,	21:45
	currency and deposits at these government banks,	21:48
	is equal in amount to about 3% of the national income.	21:51
	Now that's worth stopping to contemplate a moment.	21:54
	In the United States, a corresponding number	21:59
	would be something like 30% for M-1,	22:00
	50% or more for M-2.	22:06
	But with inflation rates of 900%, or now 300%,	22:09
	obviously people want to hold their cash balances	22:14
	down to a very minimum.	22:17
	And they have managed to reduce them to about 1/10th	22:18
	of the level that we hold, say to 3%.	22:22
	Another way of looking at that is	22:26
	that total spending is probably something	22:28
	like two or three times national income	22:30
	because you buy it wholesale	22:32
	from the manufacturers or retail	22:35
	so that gross payments are a much higher number	22:36
	than national income, which is only the final value	22:39
	of goods and services.	22:42
	And I roughly estimated that the money stock	22:44
	is enough to handle about three days payments,	22:47
	so that people have to live from hand to mouth,	22:49
	and a large fraction of the attention	22:52
	of all of the people in Chile	22:53
	goes to how do they make their receipts	22:54
	exactly match their payments,	22:56
	so that they won't have to hold any of this wasting cash.	22:58
	There's no doubt in my mind that Chile cannot really recover	23:02
	until it gets the inflation under control	23:05
	for this kind of a reason.	23:08
	At any rate, the tax base has been reduced	23:09
	to a very low level of 3% of the national income.	23:13
	If on a tax base of 3% of the national income,	23:17
	you're gonna a raise a sum of money	23:19
	equal to 10% of the national income,	23:21
	you need a tax rate of over 300%.	23:23
	And that's exactly what you have,	23:26
	you have a rate of inflation of something over 300%,	23:27
	with a rate of money creation,	23:31
	which increases the quantity of money	23:32
	by something over 20% a month.	23:34
	That's a clear pure case.	23:37
	I mentioned that the inflation had come down	23:40
	from some 900% to about 300% as a result of the measures	23:44
	which the government had already taken	23:48
	in reducing expenditures and raising the explicit taxes.	23:50
	Along with that decline came, as people should expect,	23:54
	but most people might not, an increase in unemployment,	23:59
	so that unemployment in Santiago	24:02
	has doubled over the past year	24:04
	from about four or 5% to close to 10%.	24:05
	And although the government is a military junta,	24:09
	it is very much concerned about the level of unemployment,	24:11
	and the one refrain we heard repeatedly	24:15
	in talking to government people and people in power	24:18
	was that how would such and such a measure	24:21
	affect the level of unemployment.	24:24
	From the longer run point of view,	24:26
	the policy which Chile must follow, if it is to recover	24:30
	and have a respectable economic situation	24:34
	must include a sharp reduction in government spending.	24:37
	There is no other way, in my opinion,	24:42
	on which it can get itself into a position	24:44
	where it can really cut the inflation down sharply.	24:47
	And unless it cuts the inflation down sharply,	24:51
	it is hard to see that it can recover	24:53
	in a very effective way.	24:57
	On the other hand, one of the amazing things	24:59
	is how a country can operate under such conditions.	25:03
	Walking in the streets, going in the stores,	25:06
	you would not have the feeling	25:08
	that there was anything really very abnormal going on.	25:09
	The capacity of the human being to adjust	25:12
	to what seemed like intolerable circumstances is tremendous.	25:15
-	Thank you very much, Professor Friedman.	25:20
	Perhaps we can hear a little more	25:21
	about Australia's and Japan's economy on your next tape.	25:22
	If you subscribers would like to pose questions	25:26
	for Dr. Friedman to answer	25:28
	or suggest subjects for him to discuss,	25:30
	please write them to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated,	25:32
	450, four five oh, East Ohio Street, Chicago, 60611.	25:36
	Dr. Friedman will be with you again in a couple of weeks.	25:43

Item Info

Title:

Tape 167 - Domestic Economy, Vacuum in Far East, Chile Inflation

Contributor:

Friedman, Milton, 1912-2006

Subject:

Format:

audiocassettes

Language:

English

Digital Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010 and undated

Source Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010

Series:

Economics Cassette Series: Milton Friedman

Rights:

Limited Re-Use

CC BY-NC 4.0

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Identifier:

RL10082-CS-0303
ref2746_7fj
samuelsonpaul
duke:325325
pstau001302
ark:/87924/r4m03zd55
33f10dba-1432-4fe5-a99b-8dc342bcf160

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https://idn.duke.edu/ark:/87924/r4m03zd55

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Tape 167 - Domestic Economy, Vacuum in Far East, Chile Inflation

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Economists' Papers Archive

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