Tape 149 - Current Economic Conditions, Capital Markets, Indexation Stock Volume and Prices

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-	Hello, this is Rose Friedman inviting you,	0:03
	on behalf of Instructional Dynamics, to another of our	0:06
	biweekly conversations with Milton Friedman,	0:08
	professor of economics at the University of Chicago.	0:11
	We are taping these conversations	0:14
	on Wednesday, June 26th, 1974.	0:16
	Would you want to comment on the	0:25
	current situation in any way?	0:27
-	I can do so very quickly because	0:29
	there seems to me to be no substantial change	0:31
	in the situation in the past few weeks.	0:35
	Monetary growth continues	0:39
	along the trendline	0:43
	marked out by the last three years.	0:46
	That is, until at a rate which	0:49
	hovers around the trendline	0:54
	of close to 10% annual rate of growth.	0:55
	And one, around a trendline that hovers about,	0:59
	something like 6.7% annual rate of growth.	1:02
	These rates fluctuate from week to week	1:07
	and over a period of several weeks,	1:09
	a recent speeding up in m one,	1:11
	slowing down in m two,	1:13
	but I see no evidence whatsoever that their anything more	1:15
	than perturbations about that longer term trend,	1:19
	up to the moment.	1:22
	So far, as the economy is concerned,	1:23
	it continues, rather sluggish.	1:26
	The very rapid, very substantial decline in GNP	1:28
	in the first quarter, reflecting largely,	1:33
	the special impact of the oil situation	1:37
	in automobiles will not be repeated in the second.	1:39
	But all of the indicators are that there	1:42
	will be a very slow rate of growth, if any,	1:43
	from the first to the second quarter.	1:46
	I see no reason to suppose that there will be any sharp	1:48
	pickup in the economy in the next couple of quarters.	1:51
	I believe the predictions that we had already come to a turn	1:54
	we're going to be in the sharp uprise are premature,	1:59
	and will not be realized for some time.	2:02
	I think we will continue to see, therefore, this kind of a	2:05
	sluggish performance of the economy,	2:08
	we will continue to see unemployment rising,	2:10
	somewhat over coming months.	2:13
	We will continue to see high	2:15
	but declining rates of inflation,	2:17
	with the rate of inflation coming back down	2:19
	to something like 6 or 7%, by the end of the year.	2:21
-	The Wall Street Journal, this morning,	2:25
	has an interesting quotation from Ralph Saul	2:27
	of the First Boston Corporation.	2:31
	Quote, "During the past several months,	2:36
	"we have had a situation	2:38
	"when some corporations have been foreclosed	2:39
	"from using the public securities market	2:42
	"to raise long-term capital.	2:44
	"Some lower rated utilities have been almost	2:46
	"cut off from these markets	2:48
	"and it has been difficult to market	2:50
	"most industrial bond issues,	2:51
	"except for the highest quality companies.	2:53
	"The problem this time isn't the outright availability	2:56
	"of financing, but its high cost.	2:59
	"High interest rates and inflation	3:01
	"have created uncertainty among	3:03
	"both users, issuers, and investors."	3:04
	Says Mr. Saul.	3:07
	"Under these circumstances	3:09
	"corporations other than those	3:10
	"with the highest credit rating	3:12
	"may be forced to avoid the long-term market	3:13
	"until the return of lower rates."	3:16
-	What this quotation reflects	3:19
	is a phenomenon that I think is of very great importance	3:21
	for the coming years.	3:25
	It reflects, I believe, the fact that primarily,	3:29
	not essentially the point that Mr. Saul is emphasizing,	3:33
	but the point that seems to me much more fundamental,	3:37
	the deficiencies of fixed interest rate securities	3:42
	in a time of variable inflation.	3:45
	Up until recently, borrowing on fixed-rate bonds	3:49
	was a very profitable thing for enterprises to do.	3:54
	The reason for this was because the long-term interest rate	3:58
	lagged behind inflation	4:01
	and did not fully take it into account.	4:03
	As a result, anybody who borrowed long	4:06
	over the past 10 years or so,	4:08
	has gotten away with murder.	4:10
	In many cases, has a rate of interest,	4:12
	which with present rates of inflation	4:15
	leaves him with a negative real cost.	4:16
	That is he is being paid in real terms for borrowing money.	4:19
	To some extent that is still the situation.	4:24
	The present rate on high-grade securities have	4:27
	something like nine percentage points,	4:30
	does not provide very	4:34
	large allowance for inflation,	4:38
	given that the Federal Reserve policy	4:40
	for three or four years has been implicitly	4:42
	if not explicitly directed at producing	4:44
	something like 6% per year inflation.	4:47
	A 9% corporate bond rate means a real rate	4:50
	of 3% which is low by historical standards.	4:53
	However, this is for high-grade securities.	4:57
	For lower-grade securities,	5:02
	the inflation premium may be the same.	5:05
	But risk differentials have been going up.	5:08
	Because the uncertainty about future inflation	5:11
	about what will be the course of inflation in the future,	5:16
	is added to the uncertainty	5:19
	about the fundamental soundness of the company,	5:21
	about the possibility of it paying back.	5:24
	And thus, I have the impression,	5:27
	though I cannot document this, and maybe it's wrong,	5:30
	that the differentials between high and low quality	5:33
	securities have risen.	5:36
	However, from the point of view	5:38
	of the borrowing firm, even though it has to pay	5:39
	a high rate because lenders figure with the	5:43
	probability that the firm will go broke.	5:46
	The borrowers hardly going to figure along those lines,	5:49
	and so he is stuck with that high rate.	5:52
	And the result is what Mr. Saul describes.	5:55
	The situation in which, firms are very unwilling	5:58
	to enter into the market and borrow funds	6:02
	at the prices they would have to pay	6:06
	in the current market to get them.	6:07
	This hesitancy in borrowing at these terms	6:11
	in the market is reinforced and must be reinforced	6:13
	by two other considerations.	6:18
	One consideration is the amount of capital investment	6:22
	which is being required by pollution	6:24
	and environmental considerations.	6:26
	Which yields no return in the form	6:28
	of income	6:34
	to the company in question.	6:34
	The effect of this is, as it were,	6:38
	to reduce the real yield on	6:40
	capital investment.	6:44
	If you are a utility or a chemical company	6:46
	or a manufacturing company, or any kind of company	6:49
	which now has to spend a large sum of money	6:51
	in a way which is completely unproductive	6:54
	from the point of your income statement.	6:56
	This certainly reduces the net attractiveness	7:00
	to the business and makes it less attractive	7:02
	for you to expand.	7:05
	It hence reduces the price that you are willing	7:06
	to pay to borrow funds in the long-term market.	7:10
	The second factor working in the same direction	7:14
	is the extremely low level of equity stock prices.	7:16
	Indeed, the stock market is a real mystery.	7:19
	If you are a paper company	7:24
	and you want to get new facilities,	7:26
	as an individual company you would like	7:28
	to get a new factory, why in the world should you build one	7:30
	at high cost when you could buy one	7:32
	from another paper company at low cost.	7:36
	That is if you look at the market price	7:39
	of the stocks of corporations in effect	7:42
	that is a market evaluation	7:45
	of the selling price of existing capital goods.	7:48
	That market evaluation of the selling price of existing	7:50
	capital goods is a great deal lower,	7:53
	in most cases than the cost of reproducing,	7:55
	of adding to capital.	7:58
	Indeed, it is a mystery to me, from this point of view,	8:00
	that capital expenditures by enterprises have	8:04
	stayed up as high as they have.	8:06
	At any rate, these two factors,	8:08
	the extra cost being imposed on companies	8:11
	which are not productive,	8:14
	and the low value of equity in companies	8:16
	reinforce the effect of high and variable inflation rates	8:20
	on the unwillingness and inability of enterprises	8:26
	to borrow in the long-term capital market.	8:29
	What is a way out of this?	8:32
	I must say Mr. Saul's way out suggested	8:34
	at the end of the Wall Street Journal	8:37
	is not one that appeals to me.	8:38
	He wants more of the hair of the dog that bit him.	8:40
	He talks about the government setting up something	8:43
	like a new counterpart to the Federal Reserve system to	8:46
	control capital allocations.	8:53
	I shudder at what that would lead us into.	8:55
	We are indeed heading in a way in that direction	8:58
	in the way of government capital allocation.	9:02
	One of the problems in the market is that,	9:04
	as I've emphasized before,	9:07
	an increasing fraction of all new savings	9:09
	are being preempted by government	9:11
	either directly to finance its deficit	9:13
	or indirectly in the form of government	9:15
	guaranteed investments for this that or the other thing.	9:18
	But I think that there is a much more immediate	9:24
	and direct way out that will be appearing	9:25
	and has already started to appear.	9:28
	And that is, through a change in the form of borrowing.	9:31
	What is called for, is a form of borrowing	9:35
	which does not commit an enterprise that borrows	9:39
	to a high nominal interest rate,	9:42
	regardless of future events.	9:45
	You will be immediately aware of where I'm going,	9:48
	because this has been a theme	9:53
	that I have been stressing over and over again.	9:55
	What it calls for is a purchasing power security,	9:58
	inflation adjusted bonds.	10:02
	What public utilities and other enterprises	10:04
	are going to have to do,	10:07
	if they are going to reduce their risks of getting stuck	10:09
	with very high nominal rates, is they're going to have to	10:14
	offer securities in which the rate of interest	10:17
	is linked either to some short term market rate of interest	10:20
	or to a cost of living escalator.	10:24
	The first sign of this has made its appearance.	10:27
	City Corp, the holding company for National City Bank	10:30
	of New York, has announced that it is issuing	10:33
	six year debentures Five year debentures, I believe,	10:37
	in which the rate of interest will be adjusted	10:43
	every six months,	10:47
	to a market rate.	10:50
	If my memory serves me right,	10:52
	they are going to link their rate of interest	10:54
	to the rate of interest on treasury bills.	10:56
	But for the moment it doesn't matter what the details are.	10:58
	The basic idea is essentially to have a	11:01
	variable interest rate security	11:04
	which doesn't freeze either City Corp or its borrowers.	11:06
	Over the past 20 years or so,	11:13
	that arrangement would have been very close	11:19
	to a purchasing power security.	11:21
	Short-term interest rates have pretty well adjusted	11:23
	for the rate of inflation.	11:25
	And have moved up and down with the rate of inflation.	11:27
	So that this is in a way an equivalent	11:30
	to a purchasing power security.	11:33
	It is the first major move along this line	11:35
	that I've come across, although undoubtedly	11:38
	there have been smaller, more minor moves.	11:40
	I think we shall see many more moves	11:46
	along this line in the coming years.	11:48
	Indeed, I hope we shall.	11:52
	Because I believe it will be a race between	11:54
	whether these arrangements develop fast enough	11:58
	or whether the government extends its heavy hand,	12:01
	increasingly over capital allocations.	12:05
-	While we're on the subject, do you have any reaction	12:09
	to the articles that have been appearing	12:11
	on escalator clauses?	12:13
-	Well first, I have been fascinated by the extraordinarily	12:15
	large number of such articles and the amount of attention	12:19
	that escalator clauses have been receiving.	12:22
	Two of the most recent were lengthy analysis by	12:25
	Walter Heller in the Wall Street Journal,	12:30
	which in large part was simply a repetition of an analysis	12:32
	which is being issued by a Minneapolis Bank	12:38
	for which he serves as a consultant.	12:40
	And an article which has not yet appeared,	12:44
	but which is coming out shortly	12:47
	in the Morgan Guaranty Survey,	12:48
	of which I saw an advance copy	12:52
	in their amusing Mouseville series.	12:54
	Which talk about Mouseville having a meeting	12:59
	to discuss the possibility of a	13:01
	purchasing power escalator clause arrangement.	13:04
	Aside from the frequency of such discussions,	13:11
	one thing about them really does bother me very much.	13:13
	And this is a personal matter.	13:17
	I am the scapegoat in most of the discussions	13:19
	of opposition to escalation,	13:23
	and the particular point that both of these two	13:24
	I mentioned jump on, is the fact that my	13:27
	most recent Newsweek support	13:32
	of escalator clauses	13:36
	came in the course of a column	13:38
	in which I discussed the Brazilian case.	13:39
	Both Heller and the Mouseville piece,	13:43
	take it for granted that somehow the Brasil case	13:48
	had an important part in shifting me to be in favor	13:55
	of indexation, of escalator clauses.	13:59
	And both of them jump on that as a red herring,	14:02
	and proceed to analyze, well at least Heller analyzes	14:05
	at great length, the Brazilian experience,	14:09
	Mouseville doesn't analyze it at great length	14:11
	but refers to it, in a rather less than favorable way.	14:13
	Now I believe we can learn from Brasil.	14:20
	And I have no objection to an analysis of Brasil	14:22
	both what it has to say in favor of	14:25
	and opposed to escalator clauses.	14:27
	What bothers me about it is something very different.	14:28
	I have long been in favor	14:31
	of wide spread escalation and indexing.	14:34
	I have discussed the matter in Newsweek columns	14:36
	originally in 1969, long before I ever made	14:39
	any trip south to Brasil.	14:43
	I used the Brazilian experience to illustrate	14:45
	the advantages of indexing, rather than,	14:48
	as an argument as a fundamental argument	14:52
	or as a major argument, or as a primary argument	14:55
	for indexing.	14:58
	There are many features of the Brazilian system	14:59
	that I would not carry over to this country.	15:01
	There are many features of the Brazilian economic	15:03
	and political arrangement that I find objectionable.	15:05
	But it is clear that in my opinion the indexing	15:08
	has served a very important function in Brasil	15:11
	in permitting Brasil	15:14
	to combine rapid growth	15:17
	with a reduction in the rate of inflation.	15:20
	As such it seems to me to be an excellent illustration	15:24
	of the possible virtues of indexation,	15:27
	without being either a conclusive argument for it,	15:30
	or its adverse affects being a conclusive argument	15:33
	against indexation.	15:36
	In an article of mine which will appear	15:38
	in the July issue of Fortune	15:41
	which treats in a more systematic	15:43
	and lengthy fashion the problem of indexation,	15:44
	I have gone out of my way to avoid referring to Brasil	15:49
	except in one side reference in which I inserted the remark	15:52
	that Brasil has gone farther in this direction	15:57
	than I would recommend.	15:59
	But somehow or other I've discovered from experience,	16:02
	if people cannot attack your argument	16:05
	at it's strongest point,	16:08
	they will look for whatever red herring is available	16:11
	with which to do so.	16:13
-	But why do they really oppose indexation?	16:17
-	Well, curious, I have been fascinated by the people	16:21
	who have come out against indexation,	16:26
	because they form a curious coalition	16:27
	of both the left and the right.	16:29
	On the left, the strongest opponents of indexation	16:32
	have been people like Walter Heller, Joseph Pechman,	16:34
	Arthur Okun, who in most respects	16:38
	would be identified with the left.	16:40
	On the right, Central Bankers,	16:45
	who are generally identified with the right	16:48
	have been strong opponents of indexation.	16:51
	The person writing in Morgan Guaranty Survey.	16:54
	It's an anonymous article,	16:58
	but it's clearly somebody whose general sympathies	16:59
	would be regarded as on the right.	17:01
	The gold standard advocates	17:04
	are on the whole against indexation.	17:06
	So the conservative	17:08
	hard money men,	17:11
	seem to be against indexation.	17:12
	One example, which is rather different	17:16
	from either of these categories,	17:18
	but fits somewhat into this pattern	17:20
	is William Fellner of the Council of Economic Advisors,	17:22
	who certainly is on the right by comparison	17:26
	with people like Heller, Okun, and Pechman.	17:30
	Well one explanation, of course,	17:33
	of a coalition of the right and the left	17:35
	is that they're correct.	17:37
	And that they are just united in being against error.	17:38
	Needless to say, it's not a view I accept.	17:41
	And especially I am strengthened in that	17:44
	by the long line of great economists over the last century	17:46
	who have taken the same position as I have	17:51
	on the virtues of	17:53
	escalation and indexation as a way to ease the pangs	17:54
	of fluctuations in general prices.	17:58
	Well then we look for another explanation.	18:01
	And here I think the explanation	18:03
	is very different on the two sides.	18:04
	I think the fundamental reason why the left is opposed to	18:07
	indexation is because they are in favor of bigger	18:09
	governments under whatever cause, whatever reason,	18:13
	whatever circumstance.	18:16
	They recognize, quite properly, that a major source of	18:19
	expansion in the size of government has been inflation.	18:24
	It has caused an expansion	18:30
	in the role of government directly,	18:31
	by increasing the yield of taxes	18:33
	and thus enabling governmental expenditures to expand	18:35
	as a fraction of income	18:40
	without requiring corresponding explicit increases in taxes.	18:42
	It has promoted the expansion of the scale of government	18:46
	because every time you have had measures	18:49
	such as wage and price control, or other direct controls	18:53
	to stem inflation, that has lead to an expansion	18:57
	of the role of government.	19:01
	Moreover, by removing, by reducing the occasion	19:05
	for labor disputes and the like,	19:09
	you would also indirectly reduce	19:10
	the role of government in that area.	19:12
	Thus I believe their basic objection to indexation is an	19:13
	implicit or explicit recognition that the substitution of an	19:19
	automatic arrangement of that kind would reduce the scope of	19:24
	explicit governmental intervention into the economy	19:29
	in a variety of ways.	19:33
	Now that's certainly is not the explanation	19:35
	for the people on the right.	19:37
	And here I believe the explanation for the people	19:39
	on the right is primarily	19:41
	conservatism in the literal sense, of the status quo.	19:44
	Of a difficulty of adjusting their minds	19:49
	to something new and something different.	19:52
	This is a phenomenon which I observed so strikingly	19:55
	with respect to flexible exchange rates.	19:59
	Every bank in the United States, almost,	20:03
	was opposed to, almost is needed because Mr. Wriston	20:05
	of the National City Bank who was pioneering	20:10
	on variable interest rates securities	20:12
	was also a great exception in this area.	20:15
	He was a proponent of floating exchange rates.	20:18
	Almost alone against the	20:21
	combined phalanx of commercial bankers.	20:23
	But now that we have floating rates,	20:26
	the commercial bankers find it fine	20:28
	and almost all of them are in favor of them.	20:30
	In the same way, as soon as a capital market develops	20:32
	so that purchasing power securities become widespread	20:36
	and built into the system,	20:40
	you will find that many of the people	20:41
	who today are the strongest opponents of it,	20:43
	will become	20:46
	defenders.	20:49
	The other major explanation I think	20:50
	for people in the right is their general	20:52
	continued hope	20:58
	and desire, one which I certainly share,	21:00
	that we can get off the inflation kick	21:04
	and back down to a zero inflation kick.	21:06
	They are afraid that anything which makes it easier	21:09
	in some ways to live with inflation will delay the cure.	21:12
	That may be true.	21:17
	I believe that it's very difficult to know	21:21
	whether widespread adoption of escalation	21:23
	will improve the chances of action to control inflation	21:26
	or reduce them from the point of view	21:29
	of the incentive to do so.	21:33
	I have no doubt that widespread escalation	21:35
	would make it politically feasible to undertake the measures	21:37
	necessary to reduce inflation.	21:41
	But I believe that the	21:44
	people I've designated	21:49
	as on the right are inclined to overemphasize	21:50
	the negative effects which	21:55
	indexation would have	22:00
	on the will to reduce inflation.	22:01
	And to underestimate it's positive effects.	22:04
-	I believe we have time to answer one of the two questions	22:09
	that we received from Mr. Parker,	22:13
	Chairman of the National Bank of Sarasota.	22:16
	His second question is,	22:19
	"in your latest tape, and on a least one previous occasion,	22:20
	"you made a statement with which I wish to take exception.	22:24
	"As I recall, you said that at stock market bottoms,	22:27
	"there was high volume and that this high volume resulted	22:31
	"from a difference of opinion.	22:34
	"I wish to submit that neither the records	22:36
	"nor my own recollection confirm this statement.	22:38
	"For example, at the market turn in 1949,	22:40
	"the volume was exceedingly low and it was followed	22:44
	"by about three years of up-market.	22:47
	"Again this occurred during the end of	22:50
	"1953, 57, 60, 62, 65, 66, and 1970.	22:51
	"On the way up to this exceeding high point,	22:58
	"the volume expanded in every instance on the way.	23:01
	"And in almost every instance the volume contracted	23:04
	"at the extreme high, but was still far above	23:06
	"the following low point.	23:09
	"And this is a well-known phenomenon.	23:11
	"My question is, why do you repeatedly say	23:13
	"that volume increases at low points?"	23:16
-	Well that's a very pertinent and thoughtful question.	23:20
	And I really have very little defense of myself.	23:24
	The one point on which I have great confidence,	23:29
	is that the volume of trading is a reflection	23:34
	of difference of opinion.	23:38
	If everybody is of the same opinion,	23:41
	if everybody believes, for example,	23:44
	that a particular stock is under priced	23:46
	there will be no purchases or sales or very few,	23:49
	but there will be a sharp rise in price	23:52
	with very little trading.	23:55
	Similarly if everybody believes that a stock is overpriced,	23:56
	the price will drop with very little trading.	24:01
	There can be a good deal of trading of buying and selling	24:05
	only if some people think, the security	24:08
	is worth more than other people think.	24:11
	Now I must confess that I went too quickly from that	24:15
	proposition to the proposition that Mr. Parker questions.	24:19
	I took it for granted, I suppose,	24:25
	the difference of opinion must be at a peak	24:28
	when the market is at its low or its high point.	24:30
	But I really cannot argue that that must be the case,	24:34
	and from the figures which Mr. Parker quotes	24:38
	and I may add that he sent me some charts	24:42
	documenting his statement.	24:45
	It appears that apparently what I thought was true	24:48
	is not true.	24:50
	That indeed, volume is low	24:52
	at relatively low points in the market.	24:56
	Which would suggest that the difference of opinion	24:58
	is also low at that point.	25:01
	Now I suppose there's no reason why that couldn't be so.	25:03
	That what happens is, right now for example	25:06
	with the market being very low,	25:10
	there is not a great deal of difference of opinion,	25:13
	in the sense of some people who think strongly	25:15
	that the market's going to go way down	25:18
	and some people who think strongly	25:20
	that the market is going to go way up.	25:22
	Perhaps a low point in the market simply reflects	25:24
	an offsetting affect that everybody has come	25:27
	to the conclusion that he doesn't quite know	25:29
	which way the market is going to go	25:31
	and holds no strong opinions on it either way.	25:33
	And what the evidence that Mr. Parker refers to suggests	25:36
	is that as a market goes up opinions begin to differ.	25:39
	That some people interpret the rise in the market as	25:45
	appropriate and right and other people as going against	25:48
	what they think are the basic views.	25:51
	And so as the market rises, differences of opinion increase,	25:53
	and then to follow through his analysis,	25:58
	it would imply that when you get toward the top of the	26:00
	market, once again, differences of opinion decline.	26:02
	So in substance, in sum, I will stop saying what I've been	26:06
	saying and concentrate simply on the relation between volume	26:10
	and difference of opinion which I think is clear and obvious	26:14
	and not on the relation between difference of opinion	26:20
	and high and low prices in the market.	26:23
-	Thank you very much.	26:27
	Remember subscribers, if you have any questions or comments,	26:28
	please send them to Instructional Dynamics,	26:32
	450 Ohio Street, Chicago, IL 60611.	26:34
	We shall be visiting with you again in two weeks.	26:41

Item Info

Title:

Tape 149 - Current Economic Conditions, Capital Markets, Indexation Stock Volume and Prices

Contributor:

Friedman, Milton, 1912-2006

Subject:

Format:

audiocassettes

Language:

English

Digital Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010 and undated

Source Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010

Series:

Economics Cassette Series: Milton Friedman

Rights:

Limited Re-Use

CC BY-NC 4.0

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This material is made available for research, scholarship, and private study. Copyright in this material has not been transferred to Duke University. For reuses of this material beyond those permitted by fair use or otherwise allowed under the Copyright Act, please see our page on copyright and citations: https://library.duke.edu/rubenstein/research/citations-and-permissions.

Identifier:

RL10082-CS-0293
ref2726_ofb
samuelsonpaul
duke:325315
pstau001292
ark:/87924/r41834j9f
3f80e162-f906-4284-bb88-6f4f1895ffca

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https://idn.duke.edu/ark:/87924/r41834j9f

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Tape 149 - Current Economic Conditions, Capital Markets, Indexation Stock Volume and Prices

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Economists' Papers Archive

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