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-	Instructional Dynamics Incorporated	0:02
	welcomes you to this weekly series of commentaries	0:04
	on the current economic scene.	0:06
	Reporting to you,	0:08
	will be one of the nations leading economists	0:09
	Professor Milton Friedman,	0:11
	of the University of Chicago.	0:13
	Dr. Friedman, to begin this discussion	0:16
	we have a letter from one of our subscribers	0:18
	who's asked you to comment on the possibility that gold	0:22
	might be revalued upward.	0:25
	What is your opinion?	0:27
-	Currently, there are two prices for gold	0:29
	formally speaking.	0:32
	One price is the price in the free market in London,	0:34
	that's a free market price	0:36
	and there's no point in talking about	0:38
	whether it's going to be revalued or not,	0:40
	it will be determined by market purchases and sales.	0:41
	The other is the so-called official price of $35 an ounce,	0:44
	the second tier of the two tier system	0:48
	established last spring.	0:50
	The question I take it refers to the second tier,	0:52
	to the formal official price of $35 an ounce.	0:56
	I think that there is very little chance indeed	0:59
	that that price will be raised by the United States	1:02
	in this coming 12 months	1:06
	or indeed in several more years after that.	1:07
	I think I may say,	1:10
	that it would be a major mistake to raise the price.	1:12
	That price of $35 an ounce is, at the moment,	1:16
	a pure formality it has very little meaning.	1:19
	According to the agreement reached last spring,	1:23
	it was understood that the trades between central banks	1:25
	would be carried on at that $35 an ounce price,	1:29
	that is to say,	1:33
	if the central bank of Germany wanted to turn in dollars	1:34
	we, technically speaking,	1:36
	are committed to giving them dollars at $35 an ounce.	1:38
	I'm sorry,	1:41
	giving them gold for their dollars at $35 an ounce.	1:42
	But although this is the understanding on paper,	1:44
	in fact what you really have	1:49
	is a situation in which gold is no longer really convertible	1:51
	on demand by anybody.	1:56
	If the treasury is asked to exchange $20 million,	1:59
	$10 million, $30 million for one country	2:04
	or another I have no doubt they will do so.	2:07
	What I think everybody understands,	2:09
	the Germans, the French, the Italians, the British	2:12
	and all the rest.	2:14
	That a request for a conversion	2:16
	of a very large sum of dollars,	2:18
	for example if one of these countries were to come and say,	2:20
	"We have $500 million	2:23
	"that we would like to convert into gold."	2:24
	I think it is perfectly clear to everybody involved,	2:26
	that the answer the treasury would be,	2:29
	"Sorry boys, no so,	2:31
	"that's not a demand for monetary purposes	2:34
	"and we are not going to contribute to speculation in gold."	2:36
	So that the fact of the matter is,	2:39
	if you look beneath the surface,	2:41
	that we now have defacto, non-convertibility of gold	2:43
	or of dollars into gold I should say,	2:47
	non-convertibility of dollars into gold,	2:50
	not only so far as private people are concerned,	2:52
	so far as official central banks,	2:55
	government treasuries and so on,	2:58
	that's not a bad situation.	3:00
	In fact, I have for long been in favor	3:02
	of allowing gold to be a free market commodity,	3:04
	with its price determined by	3:07
	private purchases and sales.	3:08
	Nothing is less important to this country	3:10
	than what the price of gold is in London,	3:12
	it is foolish for us to make large sacrifices	3:15
	or engage in large measures	3:19
	in order to try to keep the price of gold	3:21
	one thing rather than another.	3:23
	So that, not only does that seem desirable	3:25
	but I think it is very unlikely	3:29
	that any administration would feel it desirable	3:31
	to raise the price of gold.	3:36
	(mumbles)	3:38
	Whether it be a Republican or Democratic administration,	3:39
	it is politically very difficult to say	3:44
	that we should raise the price of gold	3:48
	when the main beneficiaries of that would be	3:50
	South Africa and Russia,	3:52
	two countries with whom the people of this country	3:54
	feel about as little sympathy	3:57
	as they do with any other countries.	3:58
	And also, the speculators.	4:00
	This last point needs a little more emphasis.	4:02
	In the great gold rush of last fall,	4:05
	we sold several billion dollars worth of gold.	4:07
	We sold that gold at $35 an ounce.	4:09
	It seems to me almost intolerable, politically, to say,	4:12
	"We are now going to buy back at $70 an ounce,	4:15
	"gold that we sold at $35 an ounce."	4:18
	All of these political problems would be as nothing	4:21
	if economic forces required or demanded	4:26
	a rise in the price of gold.	4:28
	Now economic forces do require and demand	4:30
	a rise in the free market price of gold	4:32
	and the price of gold in London.	4:34
	But there is no economic force whatsoever	4:36
	that requires the US to change the official price of gold	4:39
	or that requires the US	4:42
	to engage in pegging the price of gold at any level.	4:43
	And thus, I think both on political grounds	4:47
	and on economic grounds,	4:48
	the chance of a US revaluation of gold is very small indeed.	4:50
-	Well wouldn't a revaluation	4:55
	of the price of gold by the United States,	4:57
	in effect, be devaluing the dollar?	4:59
-	The term devaluation of the dollar	5:02
	is a complex one.	5:03
	It would be devaluing the dollar	5:06
	in terms of one sense of that term,	5:07
	in terms of the price of gold in terms of the dollar.	5:09
	However, if the US raised the price of gold,	5:12
	let's suppose we raised it, to take an extreme case,	5:14
	from $35 to $70, doubled it.	5:16
	If Britain also doubled the price of gold,	5:19
	if Germany doubled the price of gold,	5:21
	if France doubled the price of gold,	5:24
	then no exchange rates would be changed	5:26
	and the price of the dollar in terms of the Pound Sterling,	5:29
	in terms of the Franc, in terms of the Mark,	5:32
	would remain the same.	5:34
	Hence, a sharp distinction must be made	5:36
	between a general rise in the price of gold	5:38
	on the part of all countries involved	5:40
	and a rise in the price of gold	5:42
	only on the part of some countries.	5:43
	When Britain devalued a year ago,	5:45
	this involved raising the Pound Sterling price of gold	5:48
	but also changing the price of the Pound Sterling	5:52
	in terms of the dollar.	5:55
	It went from $2.80 to $2.40.	5:55
	In the present uproar in Europe what is being talked about	5:59
	is a devaluation of the Franc,	6:01
	which would mean a change of the official price of gold	6:03
	in terms of the Franc,	6:07
	but more important, a change in the exchange rates.	6:08
	In this second sense of devaluation,	6:11
	you could have devaluation,	6:13
	the United States exchange rates	6:16
	could change compared to some other countries,	6:18
	with or without a change in the price of gold.	6:20
-	And Dr. Friedman,	6:23
	you've mentioned the current turmoil in Europe	6:24
	perhaps you could into more detail about that.	6:26
	What's really happening in France and in West Germany?	6:28
-	That is a fascinating episode,	6:31
	France of course has been on the verge of difficulties	6:33
	ever since last May,	6:37
	when there were the great social,	6:38
	political, economic difficulties.	6:40
	These difficulties were resolved by measures	6:42
	which were widely believe to presage	6:45
	a very sharp rise in prices and wages in France	6:47
	and therefore made holders of French currency	6:50
	anxious to exchange French currency for other currencies.	6:53
	This was really an extraordinary event	6:58
	which had far reaching implications	7:00
	because France had seemed to be	7:02
	one of the hardest currencies in the world.	7:04
	Here was General De Gaulle on top of his great pile of gold	7:05
	yelling about financial discipline	7:08
	and about how sound money should rule.	7:10
	And all of a sudden overnight,	7:13
	that pile of gold is undermined by a few students	7:15
	who go on strike at the Sorbonne,	7:18
	joined later by some workers,	7:20
	then France topples from a position of a hard money,	7:22
	to a position of a money in danger.	7:26
	This, I may say,	7:29
	this situation was reinforced a few months ago	7:31
	when Russia invaded Czechoslovakia.	7:34
	The reason it was reinforced was because	7:37
	already the French episode had led	7:39
	speculators of the world to say to themselves,	7:42
	"My god,	7:45
	"here's a country which seemed to have such a hard currency	7:45
	"and overnight it can go on to become a soft currency.	7:48
	"Maybe we shouldn't be so happy about the German Mark,	7:50
	"it's a very strong currency,	7:53
	"but maybe the German Mark"	7:56
	"could overnight be weak currency."	7:58
	And then along came Czechoslovakia	8:00
	with the threats that you might have	8:01
	West Germany involved in war,	8:03
	or at least in political difficulties.	8:06
	Then this caused speculators worldwide	8:10
	to wonder about the German Mark.	8:12
	But now, you have all the turmoil that's going on there,	8:14
	the most interesting feature of that turmoil,	8:19
	is that it doesn't seem yet to have affected the dollar.	8:21
	Now why?	8:23
	Well I think the answer is very straightforward.	8:24
	The papers talk loosely about people running on money,	8:27
	or people trying to get out of currencies,	8:31
	or flight from the dollar.	8:34
	In order to fly from a currency,	8:36
	you have to fly into something.	8:37
	The crucial question you must ask yourself,	8:40
	is if you're a holder of one currency,	8:42
	what other currency would you prefer to hold?	8:45
	Now if you're going to hold one of the European currencies,	8:47
	then at the moment,	8:50
	it clearly seems far more sensible for you	8:52
	to hold the German Mark which is a very strong currency	8:56
	than to hold the French Franc	8:59
	which appears to be a very weak currency,	9:00
	or to hold the Swiss Franc	9:02
	rather than the British Pound let's say.	9:03
	But suppose you ask yourself,	9:06
	I've got dollars,	9:08
	would I be wise to put those dollars	9:09
	into a European currency?	9:12
	Then the dollar holders in this world are at the moment	9:14
	faced with a dilemma.	9:18
	They may be very leery of the US economy,	9:20
	they may think we're engaged in inflation,	9:23
	they may be worried about the dollar's safety in that sense.	9:24
	But they have no place to go, they're stuck,	9:28
	since the French turmoil,	9:30
	since the Czechoslovakia invasion,	9:33
	if they ask themselves where shall I go?	9:35
	It seems like going from the frying pan to the fryer	9:38
	to convert dollars even into Marks.	9:41
	You might do a little of it.	9:43
	This has been from the point of view	9:45
	of the US balance of payments,	9:47
	a very fortunate or unfortunate turn of affairs,	9:49
	depending on how you look at it.	9:52
	It was fortunate in the sense	9:54
	that it is a major factor that underlies	9:56
	the deceptive, current balance of payments figures.	9:58
	These balance of payments figures for the third quarter	10:03
	show a slight surplus,	10:06
	but that surplus is entirely due to a capital movement	10:07
	which involves this kind of a transfer	10:10
	of funds from Europe to the United States.	10:13
	Incidentally, I should go back and say,	10:16
	you might say,	10:17
	"Well if he's going to get out of the dollar,	10:18
	"he might get into gold."	10:20
	But that raises the price of gold	10:22
	but doesn't get rid of any dollars,	10:23
	it just means somebody else holds the dollars.	10:25
	The person who sold the gold.	10:27
	And now you have to ask what will he do with the dollars	10:28
	and you're back to where you were before	10:30
	which is why I left gold out of the picture	10:32
	when I was talking about it that way.	10:34
	Well to come back then,	10:36
	here you are, it looks as if the speculators of the world	10:38
	have no place else to go,	10:41
	and as a result the weakness in the Franc	10:42
	and the turmoil in Europe has not communicated itself	10:44
	to any attempt to get out of gold.	10:49
	As I already said,	10:51
	that made the balance of payments figures look very strong.	10:51
	That may seem fortunate,	10:54
	personally I think it's a very unfortunate development,	10:56
	because our basic underlying	10:58
	balance of payments situation is not necessarily strong.	11:00
	It would've been far better for this country	11:04
	if we had had a financial crisis	11:06
	like Europe is now having,	11:08
	in this country, in the world this summer.	11:09
	That would have forced us to do the sensible thing,	11:12
	which I'll come back to later,	11:15
	but the sensible thing in my opinion	11:17
	would be to let the dollar go free,	11:19
	let its price be determined in the open market	11:21
	just as I earlier suggested	11:25
	that the price of gold should go free.	11:26
-	Well Dr. Friedman,	11:32
	getting back to West Germany just for a moment,	11:33
	just the other day the bond government	11:36
	decided against revaluing the Mark upward.	11:38
	What is this going to do?	11:41
-	Well the German government	11:43
	has not decided against revaluing the Mark upward,	11:44
	they have decided not to do it in an open and obvious way.	11:47
	The fact is that the pressure of economic forces in Europe	11:52
	leave very little alternative.	11:59
	Something has to be done	12:00
	to alter the relative values of the Mark and the Franc.	12:02
	Under present circumstances the fact is,	12:04
	that the Franc is too expensive in terms of other currencies	12:06
	and the Mark is too cheap.	12:09
	And as a result you have this steady pressure on the Franc	12:10
	in favor of the Mark.	12:14
	Now, what the Germans have done is a rather ingenious thing,	12:16
	they have in effect,	12:21
	said they are going to revalue the Mark.	12:24
	Raise its value.	12:27
	But they're not going to call it that,	12:28
	they're going to do it in an indirect way.	12:29
	Let me explain.	12:31
	Suppose you consider the problem of trade alone,	12:33
	purchases and sales of imports and exports.	12:36
	Then a 10% upward valuation of the Mark,	12:39
	which means changing the price of the Mark	12:44
	from $0.25 a Mark to $0.275 a Mark,	12:46
	is absolutely identical in its effect	12:51
	with a more complicated set of things,	12:53
	namely, imposing a 10% tax on imports into Germany	12:56
	and giving a 10% subsidy to exports out of Germany.	13:02
	Now let me show why that's exactly the same thing.	13:06
	Consider a German,	13:09
	a German now for four Marks can buy something worth a dollar	13:11
	if the Mark cost $0.28,	13:15
	for four Marks he would be able to buy something	13:21
	costing a dollar, I should say $0.275,	13:25
	he would be able to buy something costing $1.10	13:29
	that is for his four Marks he would then get $1.10.	13:31
	This means	13:35
	that American goods become more attractive to him,	13:36
	before he command over $1 worth of American goods,	13:38
	now he has command over $1.10 of American goods	13:43
	that's why an upward valuation of the Mark	13:46
	would increase imports into Germany.	13:47
	Looked at the other way	13:51
	from the point of view of the American,	13:51
	at $0.25 a Mark,	13:54
	he has to pay $1 to buy something that costs four Marks.	13:57
	At $0.275 a Mark,	14:01
	he has to pay $1.10 to buy that same item,	14:03
	which costs four Marks.	14:13
	And therefore, he is discouraged from buying German goods.	14:14
	So an upward valuation of the Mark,	14:17
	raising its price from $0.25 to $0.275	14:19
	will encourage imports into Germany	14:21
	and discourage exports from Germany.	14:23
	Now consider the following,	14:26
	consider a case where the German government	14:27
	instead of doing this,	14:31
	give us a subsidy on imports.	14:33
	I think I spoke before backward,	14:35
	I think I said a tax on imports and a subsidy on exports,	14:37
	that's equivalent to a devaluation.	14:40
	I should have said a subsidy on imports and a tax on exports	14:42
	that's the equivalent to an upward revaluation.	14:45
	Take the same case.	14:47
	The German government leaves the price of the Mark at $0.25,	14:49
	but it says to anybody	14:52
	who imports goods from the United States,	14:53
	"For every Mark you spend,	14:55
	"we will give you an extra 10% of that Mark (mumbles)	15:00
	"as a subsidy."	15:05
	Now the Germans,	15:06
	if they use four Marks they get a dollar	15:07
	in addition they get a government subsidy of 10% or $1.10,	15:10
	so an importer of US goods can again import exactly $1.10	15:14
	he's in identically the same position	15:18
	as if the Mark had been revalued upward by 10%.	15:20
	Now, let's suppose the government now says,	15:23
	"We're gonna impose a tax of 10% on exports."	15:25
	Well, then again,	15:29
	the American who before with $1 could buy four Marks,	15:30
	now it will take him $1.10 to buy that same amount of goods.	15:34
	Because in addition to the four Marks,	15:39
	he has to pay the 10% tax.	15:41
	So, so far as purchases and sales are concerned,	15:42
	a 10% subsidy on imports and a 10% tax on exports	15:46
	is identical with a 10% upward valuation.	15:51
	Now, in order to get this right,	15:54
	we gotta look at what the German government is really doing.	15:55
	They aren't doing it even quite that open.	15:57
	What has been happening,	16:00
	is that they have something called a value added tax.	16:02
	And they have been rebating this value added tax	16:05
	of 11% on exports,	16:08
	and they have been imposing it on imports.	16:10
	So they've been putting a tax on imports	16:13
	and as it were, giving a subsidy to exports.	16:15
	Now what they propose to do,	16:17
	is to reduce both that tax and subsidy.	16:18
	They're not gonna go the whole way,	16:21
	as of this stage of talking	16:22
	I don't know how far they're going to go,	16:25
	I haven't seen the precise detail	16:27
	but suppose they cut that in half.	16:29
	Then that means,	16:30
	that instead of there being a tax of 11% on imports	16:32
	there will be tax of only 5.5%,	16:37
	that's equivalent to giving a subsidy to imports,	16:39
	that encourages imports.	16:41
	Instead of there being a rebate of 11.5% on exports	16:43
	there will be rebate of only 5.5%,	16:47
	that's equivalent to imposing a 5.5% tax on exports.	16:49
	So if they were to cut this value added treatment	16:53
	precisely in half,	16:56
	that is economically equivalent,	16:57
	so far as purchases and sales are concerned,	16:59
	to a revaluation of the Mark by exactly 5.5%.	17:02
	Why do it this very complicated and roundabout way,	17:06
	instead of straight out and open and above board?	17:09
	There are two reasons.	17:11
	One is pure human reason of saving face,	17:12
	they have said over and over and over again	17:15
	that they will not revalue the Mark	17:17
	and they hate to admit that they're gonna do it	17:19
	when they said they weren't.	17:20
	But there is a substantive reason beyond that.	17:22
	This arrangement is perfectly equivalent	17:24
	with respect to all imports and exports,	17:27
	so long as its maintained in effect,	17:29
	it will be equivalent with respect to future,	17:31
	actual physical capital movements investments in Germany,	17:33
	because, in so far as those require imports,	17:36
	they will get the benefit of lower tax,	17:39
	in so far as they produce exports,	17:40
	they will get the lower subsidy.	17:42
	But consider the people who bought Marks	17:46
	in the hope a formal revaluation of the Mark.	17:49
	This is indirect and concealed revaluation	17:53
	will give them no profits.	17:55
	They will get nothing out of it.	17:57
	Because they changed money for money,	17:58
	they took Francs and converted it into Marks	18:01
	and the price of the Franc in terms of the Mark	18:03
	on this step will not be changed.	18:05
	So if this method works,	18:06
	it will have the effect on trade movements of a revaluation,	18:08
	but at the same time it will not reward the people	18:13
	who speculated in favor of the Mark.	18:17
-	So in other words,	18:19
	the spectators might get burned a bit?	18:20
-	They won't get burned,	18:22
	the difficulty with our present system of currencies	18:23
	which have fixed exchange rates,	18:26
	and the reason why you have these big speculative movements,	18:28
	is because it costs you nothing to speculate	18:32
	with a government guarantee of a price,	18:34
	everybody knows that the German Mark	18:36
	isn't gonna go down in price, it isn't gonna be devalued	18:38
	and therefore, it's a free ride.	18:41
	Indeed, one of the things that always strikes me	18:43
	as so terribly amusing under these circumstances,	18:45
	is that people like myself,	18:49
	will for many many years have been arguing	18:50
	that what you ought to have	18:52
	is a free market in exchange rates,	18:53
	are always being met with the argument,	18:55
	"Oh that would be terrible,	18:56
	"that would introduce uncertainty into the market."	18:58
	And then the result of the fixed rates,	19:00
	is that you have things like	19:02
	the Pound Sterling crisis of a year ago,	19:04
	like the French-German situation now,	19:07
	I suppose this isn't uncertainty,	19:09
	this is something else,	19:11
	so it seems to me kind of amusing	19:12
	that you should adopt in the name of certainty,	19:15
	in the name of assuredness,	19:22
	you should adopt a system	19:23
	which maximizes the extent of destabilizing speculation.	19:25
	Because it imposes no cost on it.	19:29
	See let's suppose you had a free exchange rate now.	19:31
	As speculators at the very beginning	19:35
	started to leave the Franc and go to the Mark,	19:37
	that would've driven up the price of the Mark	19:40
	in terms of the Frank.	19:42
	Under those circumstances,	19:43
	speculators would've been deterred,	19:45
	they at least would take a chance at a loss later on	19:46
	if the Mark price came down.	19:49
	But when you have government guarantee	19:51
	that the price of the Mark	19:54
	in terms of the Franc will be fixed,	19:55
	you have a one way deal.	19:57
	The most you can lose is your transaction cost,	19:58
	there is a little cost of buying and selling.	20:00
	But beyond that you cannot lose a great deal	20:02
	because the German government, in effect,	20:04
	guarantees you a bottom price.	20:06
-	With this turmoil	20:10
	between the Franc and the Mark	20:11
	in the current economic news,	20:13
	what is all this going to mean to President-elect Nixon	20:16
	when he takes over,	20:20
	as far as our balance of payments is concerned?	20:21
-	That is a very very complicated issue,	20:24
	and I am not completely certain how to answer that.	20:28
	These kinds of eruptions,	20:32
	have a tendency of suddenly springing up	20:37
	and then dying down again.	20:39
	If indeed the Franc is not devalued,	20:41
	if this German concealed revaluation suffices to bring	20:44
	some measure of equality into the balance of payments	20:49
	between France and Germany and other countries,	20:52
	well then the whole thing may die down again.	20:55
	But that's a very optimistic picture.	20:57
	I think the odds are	21:00
	that the Franc will sooner or later be devalued,	21:01
	regardless of what President De Gaulle	21:04
	or his premier may say.	21:07
	Now that's not a certainty,	21:08
	De Gaulle has been willing to take very strong measures	21:10
	and take very extreme measures in order to defend the Franc	21:12
	and he may be able to pull this chestnut out of the fire,	21:15
	but it's a difficult chestnut to pull out.	21:18
	In the mean time there will be continued turmoil	21:21
	within the European money market	21:25
	as between the Franc and other currencies.	21:27
	When the devaluation occurs,	21:30
	even that may not solve the problem	21:31
	look at the case of the Pound Sterling,	21:33
	it devalued a year ago	21:35
	and now it is again in difficulty	21:37
	and it's been involved in this recent mixture.	21:39
	So it's not clear that the thing will settle down.	21:42
	But so far as the United States is concerned,	21:45
	the circumstance I mentioned before	21:47
	of the fact that holders of dollars	21:50
	have almost no place to go,	21:51
	gives President-elect Nixon a wider range of options	21:53
	than he otherwise would have.	21:59
	Because I think that there is a very very good chance	22:01
	that no crisis will emerge with respect to the dollar	22:04
	in the next few months.	22:08
	As I say, from my own personal point of view,	22:09
	not speaking for him at all, on the contrary,	22:11
	I think this is a bad thing.	22:13
	I think a crisis	22:15
	which produces a right resolution of our problem	22:16
	would be a good thing,	22:20
	we'd get it over with quick	22:21
	and we'd be through.	22:22
	I think the gold panic last year	22:23
	was splendid from this point of view,	22:24
	it forced us to let the price of gold go on a free market	22:26
	as we should've done out of our own volition earlier,	22:30
	then you know there's been almost no talk	22:32
	about gold speculation since then.	22:34
	So Mr Nixon will have a wide range of options open to him,	22:37
	I can speak very easily of which one I'd like him to take	22:45
	but as to which one he will,	22:47
	that's a more difficult question	22:48
	and I'll have to leave it for the moment unanswered.	22:49
-	Thank you very much Dr Milton Friedman.	22:52
	If you have questions or comments or suggestions or topics	22:55
	you would like discussed in this series,	22:58
	please send them to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated,	23:00
	166 East Superior Street, Chicago, Illinois 60611.	23:03

Item Info

Title:

Tape 4 - untitled

Date:

1968

Contributor:

Friedman, Milton, 1912-2006

Subject:

Format:

audiocassettes

Language:

English

Digital Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010 and undated

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Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010

Series:

Economics Cassette Series: Milton Friedman

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ref2532_fmf
samuelsonpaul
duke:325219
pstau001196
ark:/87924/r4qv3cm0z
fb9a063a-6e2c-4216-8694-6509ebfa15af

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Tape 4 - untitled

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Economists' Papers Archive

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