Tape 188 - Assessing the recovery
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- | Welcome once again as MIT Professor Paul Samuelson | 0:03 |
discusses the current economic scene. | 0:05 | |
This series is produced | 0:07 | |
by Instructional Dynamics Incorporated. | 0:08 | |
- | The third quarter has ended, and we don't yet know | 0:17 |
what the real growth of GNP was in the third quarter. | 0:22 | |
But the estimates have been coming in, | 0:28 | |
and I think it's fair to say | 0:31 | |
that with each passing month of the third quarter, | 0:33 | |
they have not been going lower. | 0:37 | |
If anything, the consensus forecasters | 0:40 | |
have been tending to raise their estimates. | 0:43 | |
Just to give you one straw in the wind, | 0:46 | |
a straw that is not in the middle of the range | 0:51 | |
of the consensus forecasters, it's a little bit extreme, | 0:54 | |
but it's an interesting straw. | 0:57 | |
Let me comment on the report on the recovery | 1:00 | |
that was issued by the new Congressional Budget Office. | 1:05 | |
The Congressional Budget Office is an innovation | 1:10 | |
in our system of government. | 1:14 | |
The Federal Reserve has long had a career staff | 1:17 | |
at the call of the Federal Reserve Board, | 1:25 | |
and at each Open Market Committee | 1:30 | |
of the Federal Reserve Board, | 1:33 | |
prepared to lay out for the Open Market Committee | 1:35 | |
what have been current trends, | 1:39 | |
and what are the likelihoods with respect to future trends? | 1:42 | |
Every important agency in the Executive | 1:48 | |
also has a macroeconomic monitoring research staff. | 1:52 | |
Of course, the Council of Economic Advisors. | 2:00 | |
the Treasury, the Bureau of The Budget, | 2:03 | |
Office of Budget and Management. | 2:07 | |
These constitute the so-called troika who meet | 2:11 | |
and determine, for the President, | 2:15 | |
what his policy options are. | 2:19 | |
Congress has been at something of a disadvantage | 2:26 | |
in this adversary procedure. | 2:29 | |
It could sit and have hearings, | 2:31 | |
and an occasional congressional committee, | 2:36 | |
like the Joint Economic Committee, | 2:39 | |
might have an in-staff set of macroeconomists | 2:40 | |
who occasionally did forecasts. | 2:48 | |
But the Congress at large | 2:51 | |
has not had access to expert opinion. | 2:54 | |
And so the Congressional Budget Office was set up | 2:58 | |
with Alice Rivlin, Dr. Alice Rivlin, | 3:06 | |
a distinguished economist who's served a tour of duty. | 3:11 | |
I think it was in HEW. | 3:15 | |
I believe it was during the Nixon term. | 3:18 | |
She was previously just most recently at Brookings. | 3:21 | |
She's a very respected figure, | 3:26 | |
not only gave a great deal of joy to those | 3:28 | |
who've been concerned that career women | 3:33 | |
in the professions get a fair shake | 3:37 | |
when Alice Rivlin was appointed, | 3:39 | |
but on her own merits there was a great deal | 3:41 | |
of approval for this. | 3:45 | |
And she has assembled, in remarkably fast time, | 3:46 | |
an excellent staff. | 3:52 | |
As somebody has said she landed running, | 3:53 | |
and they put out a report in June, | 3:59 | |
and they put out another report in September. | 4:02 | |
And periodically, they will outline for the Congress, | 4:05 | |
what the various policy options are. | 4:09 | |
Their inflexible rule is not themselves | 4:13 | |
to make any policy recommendations. | 4:16 | |
And I hope they stick to that rule, | 4:19 | |
because the more liberal half of Congress, | 4:22 | |
I think welcomes the Congressional Budget Office, | 4:29 | |
and the more conservative half of Congress | 4:33 | |
is a little bit doubtful. | 4:37 | |
Dubious as to whether this is or isn't a good thing. | 4:43 | |
The last thing in the world | 4:47 | |
that the conservative half of Congress wants | 4:49 | |
is a Brookings Institution inside of Congress. | 4:53 | |
They don't want a bunch of technocrats, | 4:56 | |
members of the Galbraithian Technostructure, | 4:59 | |
who tell them what to think and what to do, | 5:02 | |
and push them around. | 5:05 | |
Now, I take it that whatever one's persuasion | 5:07 | |
as a legislator, | 5:12 | |
having information available on what's happening, | 5:15 | |
and having analysis of what experts | 5:18 | |
across a broad spectrum think, | 5:23 | |
are the likelihoods that will happen from different policies | 5:25 | |
is going to help one rather than hurt one. | 5:31 | |
Unless you have a very weak case, | 5:34 | |
so that ostrich-like, you wanna keep your head in the sand | 5:37 | |
and not know the arguments against your case. | 5:41 | |
I will hope that ultimately, | 5:45 | |
the Congressional Budget Office | 5:47 | |
will turn out to be the good right hand | 5:48 | |
as well as the good left hand of Congress. | 5:51 | |
That's by way of preamble. | 5:57 | |
Now, what did they put out in their report | 5:58 | |
early in September? | 6:03 | |
They said that the economy in the last half of 1975 | 6:06 | |
looks to be very strong indeed. | 6:11 | |
In fact, their point estimate number under present policies | 6:13 | |
is 8% real growth in the third quarter, just behind us, | 6:19 | |
and 8% growth, annual rates, of course, | 6:23 | |
seasonally corrected, once again in the fourth quarter | 6:27 | |
averaging 8% for the last half of the year. | 6:30 | |
When the report came out early in September, | 6:33 | |
this was considered to be rather an oddball viewpoint | 6:37 | |
because they were one or two percentage points | 6:40 | |
above the consensus forecasters. | 6:47 | |
However, it now looks as if they've got a fair chance | 6:51 | |
of being right in the third quarter. | 6:57 | |
For one thing, the second quarter data | 6:59 | |
had been revised upward, | 7:01 | |
so we start out from a springboard | 7:03 | |
not of a small minus rate of growth in the second quarter, | 7:05 | |
but about a 1.9, call it 2%, annual rate of growth | 7:09 | |
in the second quarter. | 7:13 | |
And to add 6% on top of that in one quarter | 7:15 | |
isn't quite the stretch as to add something | 7:19 | |
more than 8% would be. | 7:23 | |
Furthermore, there is reason to think | 7:26 | |
that autos have been strong in the middle of September. | 7:29 | |
Middle 10 days, first 10 days of September. | 7:34 | |
And auto sales, of course, are a very important tail | 7:37 | |
that helps to wag the dog. | 7:42 | |
And, as a matter of fact, the tail in this case | 7:44 | |
constitutes part of the poundage and structure | 7:47 | |
of the animal. | 7:51 | |
We have to be careful. | 7:53 | |
This year, General Motors is permitting its automobiles | 7:56 | |
to be sold before their official introduction date. | 8:01 | |
That was not true last year. | 8:04 | |
Last year, there was a bulge in August. | 8:06 | |
And in September. | 8:08 | |
It was a bulge in sales of domestic old model year cars | 8:10 | |
as people rushed to jump the gun | 8:16 | |
to buy at the lower prices of the old model year. | 8:21 | |
But also, even-steven at the same price, they didn't care | 8:26 | |
for the new model year cars last year. | 8:30 | |
The new model year cars, they thought, | 8:34 | |
like the new model years for so many years now | 8:36 | |
in this pollution-conscious age, | 8:40 | |
would have more and more gadgets and guck on them, | 8:43 | |
which would improve the atmosphere. | 8:46 | |
There's some evidence that the pollution controls | 8:49 | |
have worked reasonably well, in fact surprisingly well, | 8:52 | |
in helping with respect | 8:57 | |
to most components of atmospheric pollution. | 9:00 | |
But they have done this somewhat at the expense | 9:03 | |
of gasoline mileage and efficiency of operation. | 9:07 | |
However, the new American cars show now | 9:11 | |
a great improvement in gasoline mileage, | 9:17 | |
and the stories, I won't say the fictions, | 9:19 | |
that can be told about them are also very pleasant to hear. | 9:23 | |
The General Motors has introduced a very small Chevrolet, | 9:29 | |
the Chevette I think it is, | 9:34 | |
which is comparable in its claims | 9:36 | |
with the claims of the small foreign cars. | 9:40 | |
If you take a Japanese Honda | 9:43 | |
as the ideal small, light car | 9:45 | |
that produces almost 40 miles per gallon | 9:48 | |
on certain test dynamometer conditions | 9:52 | |
that simulate what happens in the open highway, | 9:57 | |
well, the Chevette does 40 miles per hour. | 10:01 | |
And that means that under conditions | 10:04 | |
that simulate city driving, it will do very well indeed. | 10:08 | |
Even if any one of us wants | 10:14 | |
to shade the numbers from the tests. | 10:17 | |
What we know is the tests at this value | 10:22 | |
that if one car in city driving is supposed | 10:25 | |
to get 24 miles per gallon | 10:29 | |
and another car's supposed to get 20 miles per gallon, | 10:30 | |
whether you believe in the 24 or the 20, | 10:33 | |
I think you have good reason to believe | 10:35 | |
that you will get better gasoline efficiency mileage | 10:38 | |
in the 24 than in the 20 car. | 10:43 | |
So we have had a strong automobile sales. | 10:48 | |
Most important, I think though, | 10:55 | |
is the fact that the inventory decumulation has tapered off. | 10:57 | |
In fact, it may have tapered off a bit ominously | 11:04 | |
because the preferred scenario would be | 11:08 | |
to get rid of the excess inventories | 11:12 | |
even if you don't get rid of them at the same rapid rate | 11:15 | |
that manufacturing industry was getting rid of them | 11:19 | |
in the second quarter. | 11:23 | |
It now appears as if quite a number of people | 11:24 | |
have started to accumulate inventory. | 11:28 | |
Let's take retailing as an example. | 11:29 | |
Last autumn, the American economy collapsed | 11:33 | |
at really almost an unprecedented rate. | 11:38 | |
There is no method of forecasting that I know of | 11:41 | |
which correctly picked up the strength of the decline. | 11:47 | |
Let me just review that fact. | 11:55 | |
You will remember, | 11:57 | |
from things that've been said on these tapes, | 11:58 | |
that at the summit meeting, the bulk of the economists, | 12:01 | |
23 out of 28 by actual head count, | 12:04 | |
were pessimistic about the outlook | 12:08 | |
and thought that President Ford had | 12:10 | |
a problem of recession to worry about, | 12:12 | |
which was becoming as important, | 12:15 | |
or they said more important, | 12:18 | |
than the problem of inflation. | 12:21 | |
As I recall, there was some difference of opinion on that. | 12:25 | |
Dr. Beryl Sprinkel, for example, | 12:29 | |
who is a respected monetarist | 12:32 | |
from the Harris Trust Bank in Chicago, | 12:34 | |
was, according to my notes on the meeting, | 12:38 | |
the most optimistic. | 12:41 | |
He thought that the economy was in quite good shape. | 12:42 | |
And I think I've mentioned to you | 12:45 | |
that the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | 12:47 | |
thought that the economy was in pretty good shape. | 12:52 | |
And it seems to me that according to their theories, | 12:54 | |
they had reason to be optimistic. | 12:59 | |
I have before me a plot, | 13:03 | |
which I have been keeping track of over the months | 13:06 | |
and over the quarters and years, | 13:12 | |
of what's happening to the trend of the money supply. | 13:15 | |
Perhaps some of my listeners will be surprised | 13:21 | |
'cause they don't think of me as a monetarist. | 13:24 | |
I will take help from any quarter. | 13:27 | |
I'll take help from angels. | 13:31 | |
I'll take from help from the devil | 13:34 | |
if it'll help me in my forecasting. | 13:36 | |
And my position has been, | 13:39 | |
ever since some distant date in 1938 or '39, | 13:44 | |
that not only does money matter, | 13:51 | |
but money matters quite a lot. | 13:54 | |
So I like to watch what's happening with the money supply. | 13:57 | |
If I plot the supply of money, | 14:02 | |
let's say M1, | 14:08 | |
from the fourth quarter of 1969 | 14:10 | |
until the second quarter of 1974, | 14:13 | |
and people at the summit wouldn't | 14:18 | |
have had much more than that, | 14:20 | |
they would've had some readings into the third quarter | 14:22 | |
because the summit in September, September 5th, | 14:26 | |
was still well in the third quarter. | 14:29 | |
If I plot the supply of money, | 14:32 | |
not its rate of change, | 14:35 | |
but the supply of money, | 14:36 | |
then I find that the Federal Reserve | 14:38 | |
seems to have done a remarkable job. | 14:41 | |
I can put a black thread through that time series | 14:43 | |
and fit it remarkably well. | 14:47 | |
The trend rate of growth is at 6.58%. | 14:52 | |
This connects the actual values | 14:59 | |
at the beginning of the period | 15:01 | |
and the end of the period. | 15:02 | |
Now, the fit is not perfect. | 15:04 | |
The money stock runs ahead of this trend occasionally, | 15:08 | |
but it isn't very long | 15:12 | |
before the Federal Reserve corrects that. | 15:13 | |
And then it typically overshoots | 15:18 | |
on the other side a little bit. | 15:21 | |
I don't think that most monetarists | 15:23 | |
who are not perfectionists | 15:26 | |
would have anything to complain about | 15:30 | |
if, instead of looking at the rate of growth | 15:32 | |
of the money supply, | 15:35 | |
and looking at the unrevised figures as they come in, | 15:36 | |
that is a method calculated to make | 15:39 | |
the adrenaline of any observer run at the time. | 15:41 | |
If they look at this smoothed behavior | 15:44 | |
and see really how smooth it is, | 15:49 | |
then it does appear that the Fed | 15:51 | |
must be either paying a lot of attention | 15:53 | |
to the money aggregates in their own right, | 15:57 | |
or they are conditioned to fear | 15:59 | |
the stinging criticism of the monetarists | 16:04 | |
and they therefore pay attention | 16:06 | |
to the rate of growth of the aggregates. | 16:09 | |
And so if I cover up the page of what happened | 16:13 | |
after, say, August 1974, | 16:19 | |
there is nothing in the money supply data | 16:26 | |
which would warn me of anything ominous about to happen. | 16:30 | |
Let's make that a little more specific. | 16:38 | |
Let's plug into the Federal Reserve Bank | 16:40 | |
of St. Louis's regression model, the numbers. | 16:46 | |
And you don't get anything very ominous. | 16:50 | |
And since there's a distributed lag, | 16:55 | |
even if we think that that lag | 16:58 | |
is a little bit shorter than it used to be, | 17:00 | |
but of course the evidence | 17:04 | |
for its being a lot shorter wasn't as strong in 1974 | 17:05 | |
on September 1, on Labor Day, say, | 17:12 | |
as perhaps somebody who's flexibly ready | 17:15 | |
to modify his hypotheses | 17:19 | |
on the basis of little sample of recent data | 17:20 | |
would be inclined to do, | 17:23 | |
you would get a quite cheerful outlook. | 17:25 | |
And yet, we know that what ensued | 17:30 | |
was the fastest decline | 17:35 | |
and the longest-lasting decline | 17:38 | |
in the whole post-war period. | 17:42 | |
It shows that even those who make claims | 17:44 | |
that having a steady rate of growth of money supply | 17:51 | |
will reduce some of the variability | 17:54 | |
would be ill-advised to put in their prospectus | 17:57 | |
that it would wipe out all of the variability, | 18:02 | |
or most of the variability. | 18:06 | |
It would wipe out, it would be fair to say, | 18:08 | |
a substantial amount. | 18:10 | |
Well, the subsequent result was a debacle. | 18:11 | |
I think it had a lot to do with what was happening | 18:18 | |
to the automobile industry, | 18:21 | |
and some other industry showings. | 18:22 | |
There is a role in economic history for history | 18:24 | |
as against for regular and repeated patterns. | 18:28 | |
Indeed, the regressions of monetarism | 18:33 | |
tended before this period, | 18:38 | |
several years before this period, | 18:42 | |
to have R-squares of about .5, .6, | 18:44 | |
which means that the unexplained variance was about 40%. | 18:50 | |
What we've had in recent years, | 18:53 | |
and this goes back to before 1974, | 18:55 | |
according to quite a number of the different | 18:58 | |
variants of monetarism, | 19:01 | |
which I've been monitoring, | 19:02 | |
we've had more than the usual amount | 19:06 | |
of unexplained variants. | 19:08 | |
Well, you'd have done better if you had used | 19:13 | |
a certain eclectic GNP model, | 19:17 | |
in which money also matters. | 19:22 | |
You'd have done better if you'd used the MIT pin, | 19:24 | |
Social Science Research Council model | 19:28 | |
of Professor Modigliani. | 19:30 | |
You'd have done better if you used the Wharton model, | 19:32 | |
the University of Michigan model, | 19:34 | |
or if you had used the Otto Eckstein data resources. | 19:36 | |
But you would still not have realized | 19:41 | |
the virulence of the decline, | 19:44 | |
and that's, I think, because the virulence | 19:47 | |
was due to business cycle factors | 19:52 | |
not of the repetitive and predictable sort. | 19:58 | |
Now, just to be sure that one is not misunderstood, | 20:03 | |
in the subsequent period after the third quarter | 20:07 | |
and during the third quarter, | 20:15 | |
the rate of growth of money supply did fall off. | 20:17 | |
If you look at the actual targets of the Federal Reserve, | 20:23 | |
which we now have, | 20:27 | |
and I commend to you a recent discussion | 20:28 | |
in the Morgan Guaranty monthly letter, | 20:32 | |
it seems to me an excellent discussion, | 20:34 | |
also an excellent discussion | 20:37 | |
of the business outlook at this time, | 20:39 | |
you'll see that the Fed thought of itself as loosening. | 20:43 | |
But the demand for money | 20:47 | |
as a result of the weakness in the economy | 20:49 | |
was outrunning the Fed's willingness | 20:51 | |
to lower its interest rate targets. | 20:56 | |
The money supply did fall off. | 20:59 | |
Now, if you believe that money acts simultaneously, | 21:01 | |
something that we've been taught | 21:05 | |
by bitter experience not to believe, | 21:07 | |
but you may remember there was a Laffer Ranson model | 21:10 | |
that was used by George Shultz | 21:15 | |
when he was the coordinator | 21:17 | |
of the domestic economic scene of the Nixon Administration, | 21:21 | |
and they said that the money supply | 21:24 | |
in the contemporaneous quarter | 21:27 | |
determines what happens to the flow of money GNP. | 21:29 | |
Unless you believe that, | 21:34 | |
you would not be able to explain the weakness | 21:36 | |
that set in the economy in September, October, November, | 21:39 | |
by the weakness of the money supply | 21:44 | |
in September, October, and November. | 21:45 | |
Only the weakness of this last spring | 21:48 | |
could so be explained, | 21:51 | |
but, of course, by the same token, | 21:53 | |
what happened was that the recovery | 21:57 | |
we now think came from April. | 21:59 | |
Or very early in May. | 22:03 | |
And again, you have to much shorten your lags. | 22:04 | |
Now, you can track history | 22:10 | |
and put in dummy variables | 22:12 | |
of shortening and lengthening. | 22:13 | |
Whatever is needed ex post | 22:15 | |
in order to wipe out your residual error | 22:18 | |
that you made ex ante | 22:21 | |
by using past patterns of experience. | 22:23 | |
But everybody knows, | 22:25 | |
who has done a lot of work over a period of time | 22:27 | |
in economic time series, | 22:30 | |
that that way lies disaster | 22:31 | |
to follow the data so flexibly | 22:34 | |
is to use up all your degrees of freedom | 22:37 | |
and to be saying nothing. | 22:40 | |
To be saying nothing more than, for example, | 22:41 | |
if I have seven points and seven constants | 22:45 | |
in a six degree polynomial, | 22:50 | |
I can make my sample points be fitted exactly | 22:53 | |
by the fitted polynomial. | 22:56 | |
But the cost of that, the price of that, | 22:59 | |
is that you predict very badly | 23:02 | |
once you get some new observations. | 23:04 | |
Well, to return to the present situation, | 23:08 | |
I've told you what | 23:14 | |
the Congressional Budget Office report said, | 23:14 | |
and its most interesting finding, to me. | 23:18 | |
But the headlines found | 23:22 | |
as the most interesting finding not simply that, | 23:24 | |
that the economy couldn't be strong | 23:27 | |
in the last half of 1975, | 23:28 | |
but that the present policy mix | 23:31 | |
unless Congress were, for example, | 23:37 | |
to extend the tax cuts, | 23:39 | |
would be likely in the year '76 | 23:44 | |
under the announced Federal Reserve program | 23:47 | |
to result in a tapering off | 23:51 | |
of the strength of the recovery. | 23:56 | |
That would mean we had a very short recovery | 23:58 | |
from a very long decline. | 24:01 | |
And by post war standards, a fairly deep decline. | 24:04 | |
Now, the Congressional Budget Office | 24:09 | |
did not say that the recovery would be too weak. | 24:11 | |
They simply showed what the effects would be | 24:14 | |
of different fiscal stimuluses, | 24:17 | |
of different monetary stimuluses, | 24:20 | |
they, of course, gave less emphasis to that | 24:24 | |
not because they thought that the money factor | 24:26 | |
was less important than the fiscal factor, | 24:29 | |
but because it's not the direct mandate of Congress | 24:32 | |
to set a monetary targets. | 24:35 | |
A proposition which, by the way, | 24:38 | |
I think that the Congressional Budget Office should rethink | 24:39 | |
because the Federal Reserve is now | 24:42 | |
more and more responsive to Congress. | 24:44 | |
And they did another thing, | 24:48 | |
which I think is extremely interesting, | 24:49 | |
namely, they showed what the differential rate of inflation | 24:51 | |
would be from the different policies of stimulus | 24:54 | |
and of restraint. | 24:59 | |
They did something very useful, in my judgment. | 25:04 | |
They didn't address themselves | 25:07 | |
to what the effect would be on inflation | 25:10 | |
just in this next year or the year after, | 25:12 | |
they also addressed themselves | 25:14 | |
into what would be the effect upon the price level | 25:16 | |
and the rate of inflation in 1980. | 25:19 | |
Because you always can buy a little expansion | 25:23 | |
in the very short run with very little cost | 25:26 | |
in terms of the price level. | 25:29 | |
However, it does catch up with you. | 25:31 | |
And the Congressional Budget Office, in my opinion, | 25:33 | |
can only benefit from leaning over backwards | 25:37 | |
in being non-liberal, non-conservative, | 25:40 | |
non-radical, non-reactionary. | 25:45 | |
They should take into account, eclectically, | 25:48 | |
any reasoned view of how fiscal stimulus, for example, | 25:51 | |
will add to the rate of price inflation. | 25:58 | |
And they should give more weight, really, I think, | 26:01 | |
this is just my own tactical opinion, | 26:06 | |
to the non-liberal side of the matter. | 26:08 | |
Because I regard them as on trial | 26:10 | |
with respect to at least half of the Congress. | 26:13 | |
And I think that the more objective they are, | 26:16 | |
the greater will be their long-run credibility. | 26:19 | |
And I say this, as you know, | 26:23 | |
with some interest in the liberal side. | 26:25 | |
Now, there's one thing which they did not mention. | 26:29 | |
And it's so important that I hope on a later tape | 26:33 | |
to devote most of my time to discuss it. | 26:38 | |
Namely, the fact that this will be an election year. | 26:41 | |
1976 will be an election year, | 26:46 | |
and I say quite seriously and soberly | 26:50 | |
that I think that any ex ante forecaster | 26:55 | |
should build into his conditional probabilities | 26:58 | |
that essential fact. | 27:02 | |
What happens in the election year, economically, | 27:08 | |
is thought to be very important as a determinant | 27:12 | |
of how an incumbent fares | 27:16 | |
and how rivals to the incumbent will fare at the polls. | 27:19 | |
And I would like to review with you | 27:23 | |
some of the evidence on that matter | 27:26 | |
at greater length. | 27:29 | |
Now, this does not mean that if the economy | 27:32 | |
is allowed to weaken into the summer of 1976 | 27:36 | |
and into the early fall, | 27:40 | |
that you can then turn on the tap again | 27:43 | |
unless you believe in extremely short lags | 27:47 | |
between policy stimulus and effect. | 27:54 | |
And I don't think that the totality of the evidence | 27:57 | |
will support the weight of such a hypothesis. | 28:01 | |
Then, what is to be done must be done | 28:06 | |
not long after the turn of the year at the latest. | 28:10 | |
In other words, we're talking about | 28:14 | |
the budget period itself. | 28:16 | |
And I believe that if there are signs | 28:18 | |
that the economy is beginning to weaken, | 28:21 | |
and particularly if the weakening in the real economy | 28:25 | |
should be accompanied by some tapering off | 28:29 | |
in the rate of inflation, | 28:33 | |
and anyone who believes in supply and demand | 28:35 | |
would, I think, want to concede | 28:40 | |
that there was some such effect, | 28:44 | |
well particularly under those circumstances, | 28:46 | |
it seems to me that all that the Executive has to do | 28:48 | |
is to change the stiffness of his vetoing | 28:51 | |
of congressional expansion. | 28:58 | |
As I'll develop the notion, | 29:01 | |
we may once again have the case | 29:03 | |
where a democratic majority in congress | 29:05 | |
by its expansionism | 29:08 | |
helps to re-elect a republican presidential candidate. | 29:11 | |
- | If you have any comments or questions | 29:20 |
for Professor Samuelson, address them to | 29:22 | |
Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 29:24 | |
450 East Ohio Street, Chicago, Illinois, 60611. | 29:26 |
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