Tape 187 - In search of an energy policy

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-	Welcome once again as MIT professor	0:02
	Paul Samuelson discusses the current economic scene.	0:04
	This series is produced	0:06
	by Instructional Dynamics Incorporated.	0:08
	Professor Samuelson, as we move	0:10
	into the winter heating season	0:12
	when there's an increased demand	0:14
	for petroleum products and natural gas,	0:15
	the question has to arise once again,	0:18
	where are we in terms of an energy policy?	0:20
-	Well, to discuss that issue,	0:23
	let me first describe two unhedged views	0:27
	on oil policy that are really	0:31
	diametrically opposed to each other.	0:33
	The first view, perhaps associated	0:37
	with Republicans more than Democrats	0:41
	and in part with the administration,	0:46
	but still not completely typical of anybody	0:49
	I would think, but certain economists,	0:53
	would go as follows.	0:56
	You begin with the axiom,	0:58
	the only good price control program	1:00
	is a repealed price control program.	1:01
	The sooner we phase out all controls the better,	1:05
	according to this view.	1:08
	The same would apply actually	1:10
	to President Ford's tariff on oil imports.	1:12
	According to people of this way of thinking,	1:17
	there is no real long run oil emergency.	1:19
	Provided we let prices rise and fall	1:23
	with supply and demand,	1:25
	there's just nothing wrong with the US	1:27
	importing half or more of its oil by the 1880s,	1:30
	if that's the way the cookie of supply and demand crumbles.	1:34
	Furthermore, provided we let the different kinds of energy,	1:38
	natural gas, coal, oil, gasoline,	1:42
	fissionable uranium, et cetera,	1:46
	let them in effect be auctioned off at their market worths,	1:49
	the problem will take care of itself.	1:53
	Any rise in price that occurs	1:56
	under this scenario is what ought to occur,	1:58
	given the scarcities of the situation.	2:01
	People of this persuasion, I think,	2:07
	tend to go on to argue	2:09
	that the temporary monopoly of OPEC,	2:10
	like any temporary monopoly,	2:14
	is going to disintegrate anyway.	2:17
	And having free pricing of energy domestically is likely,	2:20
	this school thinks,	2:27
	to be the most efficient way of hastening	2:28
	that day of disintegration of the OPEC oligopoly.	2:30
	Well, that's	2:36
	one view.	2:38
	By contrast, let me try to describe	2:40
	in an unhedged way, still another view.	2:43
	Perhaps one associated with many	2:47
	of the Democratic Congressmen.	2:50
	According to this view, if you decontrol oil,	2:54
	and if you try very hard in this immediate short run	2:58
	to promote US independence from imports,	3:02
	that that will do more of what it's already been doing.	3:07
	Namely, increasing the rate of inflation	3:11
	in the cost of living.	3:13
	That acceleration of inflation from energy	3:17
	will go farther, will be aggravated	3:22
	if decontrol is allowed to take place suddenly.	3:26
	And if the higher prices for fuel	3:30
	will withdraw purchasing power	3:35
	from our consumers and thereby slow down recovery,	3:37
	first place some extra revenues may go abroad	3:41
	and come back only slowly	3:44
	into the purchasing power stream at home.	3:46
	Secondly, some part of the domestic purchasing power will go	3:49
	as rents to oil producers and oil companies,	3:57
	and although they will ultimately	4:02
	be recycled, there is no Say's law,	4:04
	no valid Say's law according to this view,	4:09
	which says that they'll be recycled at the same rate.	4:11
	To put things in the language of monetary theorists,	4:15
	the velocity of circulation of money is effected	4:20
	by the qualitative composition of pricing	4:25
	and countenancing	4:30
	complete and sudden decontrol	4:34
	will have a adverse effect	4:38
	upon the recovery.	4:41
	People of this viewpoint tend generally	4:45
	to think of the recovery as in jeopardy anyway,	4:48
	as not being too strong.	4:51
	That will be another story to discuss,	4:53
	whether our current recovery is all that fragile	4:56
	and is such a tender beast that it will be killed off	5:01
	by a shock of this sort.	5:07
	But let me go on with this second view.	5:09
	Since the wage rates tend to rise	5:12
	when consumer prices rise,	5:14
	you can see this, for example,	5:16
	in the escalated contracts, but you also see it	5:18
	in the course of collective bargaining.	5:22
	There'll be a further increase	5:25
	in costs and prices induced by the	5:26
	decontrol of oil	5:32
	resulting in an increase in energy prices.	5:34
	All this will be further aggravated	5:38
	by induced increases in airline costs and fares	5:40
	and rises in prices of all those goods	5:44
	whose production depends on energy	5:46
	and which themselves are raw material cost components	5:49
	for production of other goods.	5:52
	Moreover, these days, this school argues,	5:55
	there's not only a pass-through of higher energy costs,	6:00
	but that there's also evidence of a markup,	6:04
	some kind of a percentage markup,	6:07
	on each such increment of costs.	6:09
	So, the increase in the price of energy	6:11
	cascades through the system,	6:14
	not in an uncontrolled way but in an amplified way.	6:16
	Moreover, just to go on with this,	6:22
	if government policy on decontrol	6:24
	and on insulating us from oil imports	6:27
	does substantially worsen the rate of inflation,	6:29
	how we will be doing in the Consumer Price Index	6:33
	in the next two or three quarters	6:36
	or in the overall GNP deflator,	6:38
	then this school is afraid that Federal Reserve	6:41
	and administration policy formulators	6:45
	will feel forced into tightening the screws	6:47
	of monetary and fiscal policies.	6:50
	Tightening the screws on what already threatens	6:53
	to be a drawn out and weak economic recovery.	6:56
	So, being stampeded into the wrong activistic energy policy	7:00
	will thus, according to people of this persuasion,	7:06
	help to keep the unemployment rate high	7:10
	in the remaining years of this decade	7:12
	and will thereby put an intolerable load	7:15
	on the unskilled earners and on the minority workers,	7:18
	those parts of the labor force that are most subject	7:21
	to unemployment, youth and so forth.	7:24
	Now, I've stated two	7:29
	quite opposed viewpoints.	7:33
	Let me	7:35
	try to	7:36
	judge where there is strength	7:39
	in each view and also what the effect would be	7:42
	of various compromises between these different views.	7:46
	Notice that neither school that I've been describing	7:50
	is very gung-ho on project independence.	7:55
	So, maybe I oughta complete the triangle	7:58
	by putting Dr. Kissenger, Secretary of State, and	8:01
	his erstwhile assistant Mr. Enders	8:07
	into a third corner.	8:11
	Those who think that the main problem	8:13
	is to show the rest of the world	8:15
	that the US can't be bullied by an oil boycott.	8:16
	That we mean business	8:21
	and are going to make ourselves independent	8:23
	of foreign supplies of oils.	8:28
	More realistically, this view would have to go	8:32
	in the form that the trend of our dependence	8:36
	of our increasing dependence,	8:40
	which has been rather clear in the past data,	8:42
	that trend must be changed by activistic action.	8:49
	This third corner school, if I were	8:54
	going to describe it in the same detail	8:57
	that I've described the first two corners,	8:59
	I would have to say, is a great believer	9:01
	in organizing all of the consuming countries	9:04
	into an oligopsony.	9:10
	You fight oligopoly by oligopsony.	9:13
	A monopoly of a few sellers	9:17
	is to be checked by the countervailing power	9:19
	of the monopoly of a few buyers.	9:22
	And so, Dr. Kissenger is to get together	9:26
	with the Japanese and the Germans and the French	9:30
	and form a tight little buying cartel.	9:34
	Then, in good Yankee fashion,	9:39
	there's to be hard horse trading and dickering	9:43
	at some international conference,	9:48
	and armed with our cohesiveness,	9:50
	we will then be able to hack out	9:54
	and agree upon a pricing program,	9:57
	which does what?	10:01
	If it brings down the price that we pay for imported oil,	10:03
	it doesn't play into the hands of project independence.	10:09
	So, I guess the utopian version of this	10:12
	would be that such limited	10:16
	energy, as we continue to import,	10:20
	should be imported at very low prices	10:24
	compared to what OPEC,	10:27
	by its unilateral monopoly, will do,	10:29
	but we don't allow the sweet tooth	10:31
	of the American users for energy	10:35
	to be satiated by oil at cheap prices.	10:39
	Well, the administration's views and programs	10:45
	say as you would determine it	10:50
	from monitoring the speeches of President Ford,	10:53
	would be somewhere between the first corner view	10:57
	that I stated and the third corner view that I stated	11:00
	and I guess a number of the Democratic Congressmen	11:05
	who've been resisting President Ford's suggestions	11:10
	on compromise in oil would be at the second corner.	11:14
	Well, what are we to think?	11:20
	First, I would like to emphasize	11:22
	that we must keep a sense of quantitative balance	11:27
	as to how important the issues are	11:31
	between these different schools.	11:34
	Is it the case?	11:38
	Because if it were the case	11:41
	that the present system is intolerably inefficient	11:43
	and the present system puts an intolerable burden	11:47
	on the incentives to look for oil in North America.	11:51
	Then the first view, whatever you may think	11:57
	of its aesthetic and philosophical importance,	12:01
	would take on a enhanced practical importance.	12:04
	Well, as far as I can tell from studying	12:09
	what there is that is known	12:15
	about the present control system,	12:16
	there is no intolerable	12:19
	depressant of incentives under the present system.	12:22
	If you have old oil, and if you can squeeze	12:29
	an increment out of your old oil well	12:34
	which puts the increment	12:38
	above your quota of old oil,	12:41
	then you have something which is called released oil	12:45
	and you don't have to sell that released oil	12:49
	at the controlled price	12:52
	of five and a half dollars	12:53
	a barrel for old oil.	12:56
	You don't even, in effect, sell it	12:59
	at the price of internationally imported oil,	13:02
	let's say $11.50 or $13.50.	13:07
	You in fact sell it	13:11
	at something like $18	13:15
	because you get a chit, an entitlement	13:18
	with that released oil	13:20
	and in consequence, there is a tremendous incentive	13:22
	to generate, at the present time, released oil.	13:28
	And if you're a believer, as most of the people	13:33
	in the first philosophical camp	13:35
	that I've described would be,	13:37
	in the efficacy of incentives,	13:40
	in getting people to do things,	13:43
	then you must be a believer under the present system	13:44
	in the strong substitution effects	13:47
	which are in the present pricing arrangements.	13:50
	Now, what's important about that	13:57
	is that to the degree that this is true,	13:59
	that there is even under the present system	14:01
	an artificial incentive	14:03
	to	14:07
	generate released oil,	14:09
	we cannot look for any kind of a miracle	14:12
	on that happy morn	14:15
	when all controls are swept away	14:18
	in the fashion that Erhard,	14:21
	as the	14:25
	Chancellor under Occupied Germany,	14:29
	disregarding the American generals instructions,	14:32
	swept away all price controls and then suddenly,	14:35
	as story goes, it's a little bit overdrawn,	14:38
	but it's a good story.	14:41
	We oughta tell it.	14:42
	Suddenly goods became available on the market,	14:44
	flowers flourished and so forth.	14:46
	Well, I don't think you can look for that.	14:49
	Now, if time permitted, I would have to give	14:51
	all of the various qualifications.	14:54
	For example, let's suppose you have old oil	14:56
	and you've been draining off	15:00
	a depletable, limited supply of your reserves	15:03
	so that by no superhuman effort	15:07
	can you ever get back to your quota level.	15:11
	Therefore you have no chance of ever	15:14
	getting into the released oil category.	15:16
	Still, as a nation, if we are interested	15:20
	in promoting project independence,	15:24
	we would like to generate a little bit more old oil	15:26
	than is now motivated by the price under control of $5.50.	15:31
	Well, you would have no motivation to do that	15:37
	because that's all you get on the old oil is $5.50.	15:39
	So, there are places in which there is a disincentive	15:43
	under the present control system.	15:49
	As I've mentioned on these tapes before,	15:52
	there are stories told, anecdotes,	15:53
	some of them are good anecdotes,	15:55
	but it's surprising to me how few they are	15:57
	and how hard they are to authenticate,	15:59
	that there is some hoarding of old oil going on.	16:02
	Well now, to the degree that there is hoarding	16:07
	of old oil going on, of course that's like	16:10
	money in the bank for the future	16:12
	as part of project independence.	16:15
	But for somebody who's concerned	16:17
	that the monopoly power right now of OPEC	16:20
	as it weighs whether in the next month or so	16:23
	to raise the price of oil, as OPEC says,	16:26
	to compensate it for the increase	16:31
	in industrial prices by 10% or by 15%,	16:33
	whether it's to be $1.50 a barrel	16:36
	or whether it's to be $3.50 a barrel	16:38
	or whether nominally it's to be no increase at all.	16:41
	There is still another possibility, by the way,	16:47
	which ought to be taken very seriously.	16:49
	Namely that there is in a nominal increase of 10% of $1.50	16:50
	or even of $3.50,	16:56
	but the discounting from list	16:57
	which has been only very minor up until now, becomes major.	17:01
	Well, if you wanted to reduce our demand	17:06
	so as to embarrass OPEC with a lot of unsellable oil	17:11
	by some of its cartel members at the pegged price,	17:15
	then this hoarding of old old oil as I'll call it,	17:18
	as against new old oil,	17:22
	would be something which ought to be held	17:25
	against the controls.	17:30
	Take still another aspect of the control program.	17:34
	One of the bad things about controls,	17:37
	particularly if you start	17:39
	controlling supply and demand prices,	17:40
	and oil is not a supply and demand price	17:41
	simply.	17:47
	But if you start controlling the price	17:48
	of lumber or the price of meat	17:49
	when these are supply and demand prices	17:52
	and lumber moves off to a different auction market,	17:56
	the effect of a control program	18:00
	is often to dry up supplies completely	18:02
	in particular places.	18:03
	And where I live, New England, would be a great	18:05
	target for such a disappearance of supply.	18:10
	However, that is not the way the present controls work.	18:16
	I don't want to give the impression	18:19
	that somebody in Washington cleverly contrived	18:21
	all of these gimmicks and gadgets	18:26
	which turn out, even though very few people	18:29
	outside the industry and outside the bureaucracy	18:32
	and very few in the bureaucracy understand this.	18:34
	It was done the way the British Empire was formed,	18:39
	in a fit of absent mindedness.	18:41
	Nobody quite realized how it was working out	18:42
	but it's worked out pretty well	18:44
	as I want to go on to describe on the import side.	18:45
	Well, on the import side,	18:50
	if oil brought into the US	18:52
	costs $13,	18:57
	that is,	18:58
	the barge captain plus the	19:03
	Arabian company	19:07
	collect $13.50 for oil delivered	19:09
	in the Boston or New York port,	19:13
	I don't think that that's what the cost is	19:17
	to the oil company who brings it in	19:21
	or the ultimate cost,	19:24
	to the public utility in New England.	19:26
	New England is at a natural disadvantage.	19:28
	It should have thought twice before locating itself	19:31
	in the far corner of the country.	19:34
	Although, we have to remember that somebody	19:36
	has to be in each corner	19:38
	if the country is by nature rectangular in shape.	19:39
	However, the other side of this chit	19:44
	which the producer of released oil gets per barrel	19:49
	and which sweetens up his return,	19:52
	is the fact that there is kind of a negative chit	19:55
	which reduces the price to the importers.	20:00
	So, under the present system,	20:04
	there is very elaborate way de facto	20:06
	of taxing the oil rents	20:10
	of all the things which have become more valuable	20:13
	in Kansas and Oklahoma and in Texas and elsewhere.	20:15
	And a very elaborate control of average cost pricing	20:20
	and average profit pricing	20:24
	compensated, though, by marginal effects	20:27
	which are really quite tolerable.	20:31
	So, the present system	20:33
	is not like some price control systems.	20:35
	Perhaps the German one in 1948 before the Erhard miracle	20:38
	was perhaps an intolerable one,	20:44
	made especially intolerable by the propensity	20:47
	of the German people to obey the law.	20:50
	A French system could never become as malignant	20:52
	as a Scandinavian or German system	20:55
	because of the rampant feeling of individualism	20:57
	on the part of all the French citizenry	21:00
	who prefer to go through the red light pedestrian	21:02
	rather than otherwise in contrast to well-behaved Danes.	21:09
	So it's a tolerable system.	21:14
	The second thing is to debunk the fears	21:16
	of the second school of thought	21:21
	that if we instantly decontrol oil	21:25
	or if we decontrol it too fast	21:27
	that we go right back to the Great Depression	21:28
	or right back the the recession we've been in or go	21:31
	very definitely into	21:37
	an anemic and abortive recovery.	21:40
	Well, let's just look to see what difference it makes	21:45
	and I just happen to have received in yesterday's mail,	21:47
	so it's a convenient thing to refer to,	21:49
	the new Wharton School	21:52
	computer forecasts for the American economy	21:56
	in the next two years,	22:01
	from the middle of 1975 to the middle of 1977.	22:02
	And one of the advantages of a structural model	22:08
	like the Wharton model which brings it in contrast	22:11
	with a very simplified monetarist model	22:16
	or reduced form model or even a simple kind of model of the	22:19
	Neo-Keynesian, Raymond Fair type,	22:25
	is that you can run through different solutions	22:28
	and so I'm going to first look at their control solution,	22:33
	their single best guess as to what's going to happen.	22:38
	That's the first thing.	22:41
	Then I'm going to look through an alternative scenario	22:42
	with instant oil price decontrol.	22:46
	These runs were made	22:49
	on September 2nd,	22:52
	1975.	22:55
	Since that time, of course, there have been	22:56
	a little revised production index data	22:58
	and I would say that the recovery	23:01
	from September 2nd, that's the day after Labor Day,	23:05
	until the time that I'm now speaking,	23:08
	has gone a little bit better	23:12
	than they could have known about in September 2nd.	23:13
	Well, for one thing, the first 10 days of auto sales	23:16
	have been strong and so forth and so forth.	23:19
	Well, the first thing I looked at	23:21
	was to see what happens to the rate of real growth	23:23
	in the next four quarters,	23:28
	for the middle of '75 to the middle of '76.	23:30
	And the Wharton School model	23:34
	is a less exuberant model than many	23:36
	and it shows, under its control solution	23:41
	without instant oil decontrol,	23:44
	a 5 1/3% rate of growth in the current quarter,	23:47
	that's the third quarter of the year,	23:51
	the one that's soon coming to an end.	23:53
	8% rate of growth in the fourth quarter of the year.	23:55
	That's the strongest it's gonna show	23:59
	for a long, long time.	24:01
	Then, about 4.5%	24:02
	rate of growth in the first half of '76.	24:06
	The average for the year I make out to be	24:11
	the average of four and a half and	24:15
	six and a half,	24:20
	which would be just 5.5%.	24:24
	That would be a disappointing recovery	24:26
	but remember that Wharton is a little bit	24:29
	on the pessimistic side in comparison	24:31
	with Alan Greenspan or in comparison with Arthur Burns.	24:33
	I ought to mention for the record	24:37
	that Congressional committees	24:40
	kept badgering Dr. Arthur Burns	24:43
	to give his forecast of what was going to happen	24:45
	based upon his announced program of monetary growth	24:49
	and finally, after many hours of badgering the poor bull,	24:54
	the toreadors and picadors all poking at him,	24:59
	he said, all right, you've forced it out of me,	25:02
	I'm gonna give my opinion but I wanna tell you	25:05
	it's only personal opinion.	25:07
	It's not that of the official Open Market Committee	25:08
	or the Federal Reserve or the staff.	25:12
	He said, in my view, and he stated his words	25:14
	very carefully, the present program of 5.5% to 7.5%	25:17
	range for the aggregate monetary target	25:24
	from the second quarter of '75	25:27
	to the second quarter of '76	25:31
	is fully compatible with an 8% real growth rate.	25:33
	Now, if that means anything, and maybe it doesn't,	25:38
	I read that, I wrote down in my little black book	25:42
	that Arthur Burns thinks that	25:45
	the real growth is gonna be fully up to	25:48
	first year recovery and it's gonna be 8%.	25:53
	Alan Greenspan more recently	25:56
	has made an announcement for which he was	25:58
	much criticized by a lot of private economists	26:01
	and you can be sure the university economists	26:03
	won't be very late in joining in,	26:05
	saying we were gonna grow by 7%.	26:09
	Well, this Wharton growth is about	26:11
	six and a half, six and a third percent.	26:16
	Now, let's deal with instant oil price decontrol.	26:19
	So magic is the one month effect	26:25
	that it reduces even the current quarter	26:28
	from five and a third percent to four and a third,	26:33
	by a full	26:37
	percent.	26:38
	Of course that's only a quarter of a percent	26:39
	in the quarter because these are annual rates.	26:41
	It reduces by a full percent the	26:44
	booming, exuberant fourth quarter.	26:49
	That goes down from 8% to 7% and reduces by a	26:53
	full, well, I'd say a full percent	27:01
	down to something like 3 3/4% instead of 4 1/2%.	27:05
	Well, I guess that's by 3/4 of a percent.	27:10
	What's gonna happen in the first half of 1976?	27:12
	Well, I think that that would be regrettable	27:18
	if the first year's	27:23
	recovery	27:26
	were not at least 7%.	27:28
	That's been the target that I testified	27:30
	before Congress on.	27:32
	But it would be even more regrettable	27:33
	if something which was going to be	27:37
	about 6 1/3 or 6 1/2% were reduced almost	27:39
	by a full percent to 5%.	27:42
	However, what does it mean in terms	27:46
	of the unemployment rate in the election quarter?	27:47
	It's not as bad as you might think.	27:55
	Instead of having	27:57
	7.9% in the fourth quarter,	28:04
	as under the control solution	28:07
	without complete oil decontrol, you have 8.1.	28:10
	You might say that these are within	28:15
	the degree of accuracy of the numbers.	28:17
	Well, that is true but I think that the spread	28:19
	would be around 7.9 if this forecast is right	28:23
	or around 8.1 and that is a significant difference.	28:26
	I may say that these numbers	28:31
	look a little bit high to me because	28:32
	we're now	28:36
	getting some rethinking	28:39
	on how high unemployment ever reached at its peak.	28:41
	We've had some revisions of the establishment data	28:46
	which I disagreed with the census.	28:48
	The census data of unemployment was showing rather lower	28:50
	than even the Washington officials has expected	28:54
	but the establishment data didn't bear that out.	28:58
	But they've now revised their establishment data	29:00
	and by August, the data are beginning to agree,	29:02
	so that I think that unemployment	29:05
	is not going to go back to 9%.	29:08
	Earlier, as you know, I thought it	29:11
	would go to 9 1/3% and it's about 8.4%	29:12
	and I think it is on its way down very soon.	29:18
	So, these numbers are high	29:22
	but what I want you to learn from them	29:23
	is the difference of about	29:27
	two or three tenths of a percent	29:32
	on the unemployment rate.	29:33
	Now, for somebody who's unemployed,	29:34
	this will seem very callous of me to disregard,	29:36
	because this means some hundreds of thousands of people,	29:40
	and I apologize for my beastliness.	29:43
	But keeping this in perspective,	29:46
	it is not the end of the world	29:51
	if one view prevails and the other view	29:53
	is correct.	29:59
	I myself think that there's a powerful case	30:01
	having discussed all that I've said to you	30:04
	for going slow on solving our long run problem	30:07
	when we're still in the acute phase of stagflation.	30:10
	So, I have no trouble in finding a compromise	30:13
	between the two main schools	30:19
	that I have outlined for you.	30:22
	I think the art of economic policy	30:26
	and also the art of political economy,	30:29
	of keeping our legislative system from getting polarized	30:32
	is to find that compromise	30:38
	and I don't think for all the noise	30:41
	it's all that hard to find it.	30:43
-	If you have any comments or questions	30:46
	for Professor Samuelson,	30:47
	address them to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated,	30:49
	450 East Ohio Street, Chicago, Illinois, 60611.	30:51

Item Info

Title:

Tape 187 - In search of an energy policy

Date:

September 1975

Contributor:

Samuelson, Paul A. (Paul Anthony), 1915-2009

Subject:

Format:

audiocassettes

Language:

English

Digital Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010 and undated

Source Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010

Series:

Economics Cassette Series: Paul Samuelson

Rights:

Limited Re-Use

CC BY-NC 4.0

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Identifier:

RL10082-CS-0185
ref2477_q8z
samuelsonpaul
duke:325192
pstau001169
ark:/87924/r4vq2ss6j
402d2d70-47fe-472c-bcfc-83ce66dbedb5

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https://idn.duke.edu/ark:/87924/r4vq2ss6j

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Tape 187 - In search of an energy policy

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