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Tape 165 - The noble laureates

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-	Welcome once again as MIT Professor Paul Samuelson	0:02
	discusses the current economic scene.	0:05
	This series is produced by	0:07
	Instructional Dynamics Incorporated.	0:09
	This program was recorded October 25.	0:11
-	Today I'd like to talk about the new Alfred Nobel awards	0:16
	for economic science,	0:21
	which were announced a little bit earlier this month.	0:23
	Gunnar Myrdal of Sweden and Friedrich von Hayek,	0:27
	originally of Austria,	0:32
	later of the London School of Economics	0:33
	and the University of Chicago	0:35
	and now I believe back in Salzburg,	0:36
	were the joint persons awarded the 1974 prize.	0:40
	The Nobel award, it's not really a proper Nobel prize,	0:49
	in economics is new.	0:56
	It was awarded for the first time in 1969.	0:58
	It was not part of the original will of Alfred Nobel,	1:02
	the winner of, the inventor of dynamite.	1:05
	But to celebrate I believe it was its 300th anniversary,	1:09
	the Bank of Sweden decided that it would	1:14
	fund a prize equal in cash value	1:17
	to the original prizes which are in physics,	1:21
	in chemistry, in physiology,	1:25
	and literature.	1:32
	Those four prizes are awarded	1:33
	by Swedes and are awarded in ceremonies in Stockholm	1:37
	on Alfred Nobel's birthday, December 10,	1:45
	and in addition of course there's the Peace Prize,	1:50
	which Alfred Nobel arranged to have given	1:51
	by Norwegians and awarded on the same day in Norway.	1:56
	At the time that Nobel died,	2:01
	which was in the 1890s,	2:04
	Sweden and Norway of course were	2:06
	under a joint crown,	2:10
	that is, they had the same king and queen,	2:12
	although there was a certain measure of independence	2:15
	of the junior partner which was Norway.	2:18
	I believe it was in 1905	2:22
	that the Norwegians became restive	2:24
	and I guess they were given a different German	2:25
	royal family.	2:31
	And since then, of course, they've been part of Scandinavia	2:33
	but completely separate countries.	2:36
	Well, the prizes always involve a certain amount of drama.	2:39
	They are awarded on successive days.	2:45
	The person who receives the prize	2:54
	usually learns about it at six o'clock in the morning	2:57
	from some member of the press	3:00
	asking him how he's going to spend the money	3:01
	or how he feels about winning the prize.	3:03
	And apparently this year, The New York Times was alerted	3:06
	that the prize would come out on a Wednesday	3:10
	morning and on Monday they asked me if I would stand ready	3:17
	to write an article as I had done in the past	3:24
	for them on the new recipients.	3:27
	I said I would be glad to, provided that I knew them,	3:31
	and I rather thought that I probably would know them	3:36
	because economics is, after all, one small happy family.	3:40
	It's interesting that I just caught in my hotel room	3:45
	at the Waldorf the last part of the announcement	3:50
	saying that an Austrian had received it	3:55
	for his contributions to monetary analysis,	3:58
	but I didn't get the name.	4:01
	That opened up some interesting guessing games for me.	4:03
	I thought, well, if Ludwig von Mises were alive,	4:07
	it could well have been given to him,	4:11
	but he died in his 90s not very long ago,	4:14
	still with his boots on, so to speak,	4:19
	preaching the virtues of laissez-faire	4:21
	as an extension professor at New York University.	4:25
	You can't give the prize to a dead man.	4:29
	A man is permitted to die between the time	4:32
	that the prize is announced	4:34
	and when it would have been awarded to him,	4:37
	the difference between October and December,	4:40
	but if you're dead, you're dead, dead, dead	4:43
	and it's too late.	4:46
	So Ludwig von Mises couldn't be it.	4:49
	My old professor, Gottfried von Haberler,	4:52
	Gottfried Haberler as we've come to call him	4:58
	these last almost 40 years that he's lived in America,	5:01
	was of course a possibility,	5:05
	but I couldn't think why they were	5:07
	identifying him with Austria.	5:08
	I know American chauvinism and jingoism,	5:11
	and it tends to take anybody who	5:15
	is current in America and allocate the prize to an American	5:21
	even though he may have been born elsewhere	5:25
	and even though he may have done his best work elsewhere.	5:27
	So I thought that that was unlikely.	5:31
	But I didn't really know whether Hayek would be the one.	5:33
	Myrdal was not so surprising.	5:40
	In fact, just a few days before the awarding of the prize,	5:42
	I was discussing with one of the previous Nobel winners	5:48
	who it might be,	5:53
	and he said, well, what about Gunnar Myrdal?	5:55
	Myrdal is a very eminent person,	6:01
	and it was to be expected that	6:04
	he might someday receive the prize	6:10
	although the Swedes,	6:11
	particularly in the Royal Academy of Sciences,	6:13
	where the economics prize is given	6:15
	are a little bit reluctant	6:17
	to give an early prize I would suppose	6:19
	to one of their own members,	6:23
	lest it be thought to be a case of favoritism.	6:24
	And actually, as some of you will remember,	6:27
	the prize for literature was given to two Swedes	6:30
	not very well-known outside Scandinavia.	6:32
	Indeed, their works haven't been translated	6:36
	until now into English,	6:39
	and you can be sure they'll be very quickly	6:42
	now translated but that was considered to be kind of	6:44
	an unfair thing.	6:48
	The peace prize is always difficult.	6:50
	What are the standards to be used?	6:52
	And the literature prize is, I'm afraid, not much better.	6:55
	In particular, there were some outstanding	7:01
	people who were overlooked in the early years.	7:04
	Tolstoy, for example, was alive	7:07
	and could have been given the 1901 prize.	7:10
	He died, I think, around 1911.	7:13
	He was never given a prize because it is said	7:17
	that the head of the Swedish Academy,	7:20
	it is the Academy that gives the literature prize,	7:24
	was against him.	7:28
	One can wonder whether these prizes do more good than harm.	7:33
	I don't want to go into that discussion,	7:36
	but it's always seemed a pity to me	7:39
	that there isn't a Nobel prize for mathematics.	7:41
	It is a natural subject it seems to me for such a prize.	7:45
	But I've learned that Alfred Nobel did not care for	7:51
	one of the great Swedish mathematicians of the day,	7:57
	Mittag-Leffler, and he was pretty sure,	7:59
	and I think he's right, that Mittag-Leffler	8:03
	would have gotten one of the early prizes.	8:05
	And rather than contemplate from the grave that happening,	8:06
	he didn't award a prize.	8:10
	Besides, Alfred Nobel originally had the notion	8:12
	that these prizes were to be given	8:16
	for the good of mankind,	8:18
	for people who had made contributions	8:20
	for the good of mankind,	8:22
	more exactly for people who were still going to make	8:24
	contributions for the good of mankind.	8:28
	And he rather thought that it would be given to somebody	8:30
	for very recent work, a young person,	8:32
	and that the amount of money would be large enough	8:36
	to support him the rest of his life	8:39
	so that he could give himself to pure science.	8:40
	Well, it shows how even the very wealthy	8:43
	can't take it with them	8:48
	and they can't leave it in such a way as to realize	8:49
	their fondest dreams because although	8:52
	the Nobel foundation in Sweden I must say	8:55
	has done very well in investing,	9:00
	you can unitize how well they have done by	9:02
	looking at the size of the prize.	9:05
	To have had an increase in the prize	9:08
	from $100,000 of a year ago or whatever it was	9:10
	to $120,000 this last year	9:13
	suggests that they're practically geniuses	9:16
	in their ability to do better than a random dart	9:19
	in selecting securities.	9:23
	Well, that's a good round sum,	9:27
	particularly if it goes to a single person.	9:31
	But it's not enough to support a prime scientist	9:35
	in the prime of life for the rest of his life.	9:39
	I thought that Simon Kuznets,	9:43
	who received the award in 1971,	9:46
	gave the best answer to the reporter who	9:49
	asked the inevitable question,	9:53
	what are you going to do with the money,	9:54
	and he said, I'm going to use it	9:56
	to brighten up my retirement years.	9:58
	That's about what the	10:00
	function of that sum of money these days,	10:03
	of inflation and increasing real income around the globe	10:06
	can actually do.	10:09
	Well, I did	10:12
	scribble down some remarks for The New York Times,	10:17
	and let me mention what their content was	10:22
	and also elaborate and comment on the matter.	10:26
	I said economists all over the world	10:33
	will think it a happy choice	10:36
	of the Swedish Royal Academy of Science	10:38
	to have selected Gunnar Myrdal and Friedrich Hayek	10:40
	for this year's Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science.	10:43
	Although both men were said to have been selected primarily	10:48
	for their stellar contributions to monetary analysis,	10:51
	macroeconomics as we now tend to call it,	10:55
	each has in fact made outstanding contributions	11:00
	in the wider realms of policy and the social sciences.	11:03
	But of course in no sense has their work been joint.	11:08
	Indeed, their policy conclusions, if followed literally,	11:11
	would be at loggerheads and self-canceling.	11:15
	Hayek's most famous work,	11:20
	his 1931 four lectures on business cycles called	11:24
	Prices and Production,	11:28
	arrived at the conclusion	11:31
	that excess	11:33
	credit expansion and deficit spending	11:37
	by governments plus the central bank	11:41
	created too much money	11:46
	and this was the root of all business cycle evil.	11:48
	In fact, the root of all evil.	11:52
	The best cure for the depression then, he thought,	11:55
	was to sweat it out.	11:57
	And the worst thing that Dr. Hayek	11:59
	and his Austrian school counterparts believed	12:02
	was for the government to provide unemployment compensation	12:05
	and other supplements to consumers' incomes,	12:08
	for that would merely put off the bitter day of reckoning	12:11
	and only worsen the under-saving,	12:14
	you have to put that in quotation marks,	12:18
	that he thought was the villainous cause	12:20
	of every depression.	12:24
	It's a very odd and mechanical theory of the business cycle.	12:26
	I can assure you it had a tremendous vogue	12:30
	for a few years about 1931,	12:32
	but you pay for that kind of vogue	12:34
	and it's been at a very deep discount.	12:37
	To show how seriously it was taken,	12:40
	I suggest any of you go to	12:41
	a good library and read a book by Lionel Robbins,	12:44
	now Lord Robbins, whom you might call the	12:48
	greatest Austrian of them all,	12:50
	on the Great Depression.	12:52
	And it's a book which,	12:56
	by the way, Robbins is now repudiated,	12:57
	I guess he thinks that he was bewitched when he wrote it,	13:00
	but in that, he's saying don't give any income relief,	13:03
	don't make consumer credit available	13:10
	because what has caused the depression,	13:13
	and this by the way was never properly	13:18
	and cogently deduced,	13:21
	what caused the depression was the fact that	13:25
	the structure of production,	13:28
	the roundabout-ness of production,	13:31
	was artificially elongated by excessive credit creation	13:34
	by the banks.	13:40
	And you can't keep up that artificial elongation	13:41
	unlike the genuine elongation that comes from	13:46
	genuine permanent saving.	13:50
	Therefore, sooner or later,	13:52
	the trombone which has been pulled out,	13:55
	has been elongated is going to try like a rubber band	13:59
	to snap back to a shorter form,	14:02
	and if you try to put off that necessary correction,	14:04
	by giving money to the consumers,	14:09
	that will only make the snap back faster.	14:12
	Now of course, the Great Depression of the 1930s,	14:16
	which involved poverty in the midst of plenty,	14:19
	is very hard to recognize in this mechanical scenario	14:23
	of an elongated trombone pulled back by a spring	14:30
	or a rubber band,	14:34
	but that sort of thing was taken seriously at that time.	14:37
	Now by contrast, Myrdal was one of the Stockholm School,	14:41
	who anticipated much of Keynes' general theory.	14:45
	Other members of that School,	14:50
	and by the way except for their age,	14:51
	they would be certainly	14:53
	deserving of	14:56
	contemplation at least of a Nobel award,	14:59
	would be Bertil Ohlin for a long time	15:02
	the head of the free enterprise party,	15:05
	liberal party so called in Sweden,	15:11
	the late Dag Hammarskjold also made	15:15
	pre-Keynesian contributions,	15:18
	Erik Lindahl,	15:20
	now dead, and Erik Lindberg,	15:24
	now very much alive and actually	15:27
	the president of the Royal Academy of Science in Sweden.	15:30
	I don't think that Lindberg anymore	15:36
	is on the committee of that Royal Academy	15:38
	that awards the prize.	15:41
	I believe Assar Lindbeck is the chairman of that committee.	15:43
	Well, Myrdal wrote many books.	15:47
	He was a brilliant young man.	15:50
	He actually was trained as a lawyer,	15:52
	as so many economists on the continent were in those days.	15:53
	I think he even practiced law as Schumpeter did	15:56
	for a very short period of time.	15:58
	He's a very	16:01
	valuable, non-Scandinavian type of fellow.	16:06
	Well, his monetary equilibrium emphasized	16:13
	the need for expansionary fiscal and monetary policy	16:19
	in a depression.	16:22
	And Myrdal has been anything but	16:24
	a believer in laissez-faire.	16:27
	In fact, he's been an important architect	16:29
	of the Swedish labor party's welfare state.	16:33
	By contrast, Hayek regards himself	16:37
	as not belonging to any of the current parties.	16:41
	I think he once described himself as most at home	16:44
	in the early 19th century Whig era of limited government	16:47
	paints him about the same color as Macaulay.	16:55
	Well, the world of course has not gone Hayek's way,	17:00
	but Myrdal has seen his heart's desire realized.	17:04
	And as Oscar Wilde said,	17:09
	the only thing worse than getting your heart's,	17:11
	not getting your heart's desire is to get it.	17:13
	I think that Myrdal actually became a little bit bored	17:16
	with the successes of the Swedish welfare state,	17:21
	and he thought that there must be something	17:25
	more important in life for him to devote his older,	17:27
	later years to than settling the petty	17:31
	squabbles of tenants in the housing developments	17:36
	of the middleway of Sweden.	17:41
	And so, he turned to southeast Asia, to India, Pakistan,	17:44
	now Bangladesh, and has done a vast study there.	17:51
	Actually, both men have been more than economists.	17:57
	Hayek is not only a learned scholar	18:01
	in that he can tell you when the doctrine of four savings	18:04
	first began	18:07
	or he edited beautifully the important and interesting	18:09
	letters of John Stuart Mill and Harriet Taylor,	18:15
	who was his, I guess we'd have to call,	18:19
	we'd have to say his girlfriend	18:23
	even though she was married to John Taylor,	18:24
	but she did later become John Stuart Mill's wife after	18:27
	John Taylor, shall we say blissfully,	18:32
	passed away from the scene.	18:38
	Hayek has even written on psychology.	18:43
	He is a man of very, very broad learning.	18:47
	Well, Myrdal perhaps was getting a little bit bored by	18:52
	mainstream Keynesian economics in the 1930s.	18:58
	He and his wife, who is a scholar in her own right	19:03
	and perhaps an even more important political figure	19:08
	in the labor party in Sweden than Gunnar,	19:12
	I'm referring to Alva Myrdal, who has been	19:17
	an ambassador to India and who has been a cabinet officer	19:20
	and has had many other important functions	19:23
	and who I believe is by profession a psychologist.	19:28
	Well, they wrote in the 1930s	19:30
	a very famous book on the declining	19:32
	population prospect for Sweden.	19:36
	It received a great deal of attention.	19:39
	To Myrdal even became a slang word I think to procreate,	19:42
	and it was said I suppose in jest	19:48
	that the Myrdals had three children	19:51
	because they had to live up to their own recommendations.	19:52
	By the way, one of those children is Sissela Myrdal,	19:56
	the wife of Derek Bok,	20:02
	president of Harvard.	20:05
	Another one, Jan Myrdal, is an anthropologist of some fame	20:07
	in writing up China and something of a left winger.	20:13
	And I'm not sure about the third child.	20:18
	Well, that would have been enough to have	20:22
	constituted an important scholarly career for one man,	20:28
	but perhaps history will record	20:33
	that the great life work of Gunnar Myrdal	20:36
	was the study of the American Negro,	20:40
	called An American Dilemma which he did at the request of	20:43
	the Carnegie Foundation just before World War II.	20:47
	He says that he was picked for the job	20:51
	because he knew nothing about the problem	20:54
	and it was thought that a dumb Swede	20:56
	would have the innocence to be objective.	20:58
	In any case, he came to this country,	21:02
	he acquired a huge staff	21:05
	and made Baltimore his headquarters.	21:07
	He thought that was a good compromise	21:13
	between New York and Washington,	21:15
	and he turned out the great work,	21:17
	An American Dilemma, which still	21:22
	sells very well and which pointed out to Americans	21:25
	what they should have known but which we didn't know,	21:30
	namely that we were not in equilibrium	21:33
	in our black-white relationships.	21:36
	But on the contrary, there was a glaring discrepancy	21:38
	which could not stand between the American creed,	21:42
	which is something that we take seriously,	21:46
	it isn't just something that we trot out	21:48
	on the Fourth of July and on Sundays,	21:51
	it's something that bothers our consciences	21:53
	in a way that many South Africans	21:55
	are not bothered by their racial problem,	21:58
	and he pointed out that all is not well	22:03
	and this is documented in a scholarly fashion.	22:07
	Still, that wasn't enough for Myrdal.	22:14
	He went on to become head of United Nations for Europe.	22:16
	And at that time, in the late 1940s and in the 1950s,	22:21
	he provided a very important bridge	22:26
	between the western European countries	22:31
	and the eastern European socialist countries.	22:35
	Those were the days of the Cold War,	22:40
	those were the days of the Marshall Plan,	22:41
	and it was good to have one place in Geneva	22:43
	where problems in common were threshed out	22:46
	and discussed and negotiated.	22:51
	Moreover, he had quite a brilliant staff there	22:54
	so that the people looked forward to their reports.	22:59
	I'm referring to Nicholas Kaldor of Cambridge University,	23:01
	Professor Kaldor, now Lord Kaldor,	23:06
	Walt Rostow and still others were on that staff.	23:10
	I had to write that throughout his life,	23:17
	Gunnar Myrdal has been carrying on a lover's quarrel	23:19
	with the United States.	23:22
	He's always talking to us like a Dutch uncle,	23:23
	scolding us for not doing what he thinks ought to be done	23:26
	and which he thinks our own credo requires to be done.	23:31
	Well, let me conclude by	23:38
	saying what I think to be the most important	23:42
	lasting work in economics by Friedrich Hayek.	23:45
	I don't think it's Prices and Production.	23:51
	I don't even think that it's the pure theory of capital,	23:53
	although he has made some nice	23:56
	contributions to that subject.	23:59
	Indeed, if you want to see the best refutation	24:01
	against Major Douglas or the notion of underconsumption	24:05
	as a matter of the anatomy of the system,	24:09
	there's always a hole in the loop of purchasing power,	24:12
	you might look at his, I believe it's about 1929 or 1930,	24:16
	The Paradox of Saving, in which he shows	24:22
	that there might be a saving investment problem	24:24
	but there certainly need not be one	24:27
	merely for accounting reasons.	24:29
	No, I think that his most important work	24:33
	is in connection with the effectiveness and the philosophy	24:38
	of the free market system.	24:42
	Let me review an important controversy	24:46
	in the field of economics.	24:50
	Ludwig von Mises, about	24:52
	the year 1920, wrote a famous study in which he said	24:57
	that planning under socialism is by definition impossible.	25:02
	He said the only rationality that is possible	25:07
	is the rationality of a market pricing system.	25:10
	This gave rise to a spirited debate in the 1930s.	25:15
	And finally we had the late Oskar Lange, then I think	25:19
	a traveling scholar in the United States from Poland	25:27
	and later to be the vice president of Poland	25:30
	and an important post-war official in the Polish government,	25:33
	and A. P. Lerner, Abba P. Lerner,	25:38
	who was trained at the London School	25:42
	but came to the United States	25:44
	shortly after the period I'm talking about,	25:46
	those two men took the viewpoint	25:48
	that you could use under socialism a kind of planning	25:51
	which was planning not to plan,	25:54
	which was to use the advantages of a pricing system	25:57
	but you're playing the game of competition	26:02
	and you're ruling out monopoly.	26:04
	I don't want to go into details,	26:07
	but each bureaucrat, the wheat bureaucrats	26:08
	were to take the price of wheat as given	26:11
	and then they were to respond in a non-monopolistic way,	26:13
	other bureaucrats were to act as auctioneers	26:18
	so as to clear the market.	26:21
	And they proved that contrary to what von Mises had said,	26:22
	it was possible to define rationally	26:27
	a good society without the market	26:30
	and it was possible to prove	26:34
	as you might say a logical theorem	26:35
	that under planning not to plan socialism,	26:38
	playing the game of a perfect competition,	26:43
	you could realize that definable optimum.	26:46
	And so, they said in effect, Ludwig von Mises is wrong,	26:51
	but as Oskar Lange said,	26:55
	the socialist state of the future will put up statues	26:57
	in the town square to Ludwig von Mises	27:00
	for having brought up an important question.	27:03
	Actually, the results of Lerner and Lange	27:06
	were recapitulating what had been done by	27:12
	Pareto and Wahlroos at the turn of the century,	27:14
	if not by von Wiesser in his natural value	27:17
	with his parable of a communist state even earlier.	27:20
	Well, you might say the debate's over	27:24
	and the pro-socialists have won,	27:26
	but Hayek in an article	27:29
	written about 1945 in the American Economic Review	27:32
	pointed the very great importance of information	27:37
	in real life situations, not in the textbook situations	27:41
	of the textbooks.	27:46
	And so, he provided, I think, a very important rebuttal	27:48
	emphasizing that we live in a world of uncertainty,	27:53
	and he said that decentralized enterprise	27:57
	is an efficient way of having each individual	27:59
	bring his little quantum of information	28:02
	into useful play.	28:04
	Well, anyone who overhears the current discussions	28:06
	in the law schools of America	28:09
	on the relationship of information to contracts, to torts	28:11
	and public regulation	28:15
	will appreciate, I think, that the Hayekian contribution	28:17
	still lives on.	28:20
	Well, I concluded my New York Times article	28:23
	by saying the 1974 joint Nobel award	28:25
	underscores the need in political economy	28:29
	for tolerance and eclecticism.	28:32
	I think I'm ready to stand by what I wrote,	28:35
	but after I wrote it, I've been receiving reactions	28:39
	from various friends in the economic area,	28:43
	and I might mention their contrasting reaction.	28:49
	My wife, who knows economists pretty well,	28:55
	said my god, is Hayek still alive?	28:57
	Well, of course he is very much alive.	28:59
	He left the University of Chicago before the retirement age,	29:01
	I suppose to go back to the land of his native tongue,	29:05
	but also because by acquiring a chair on the continent,	29:10
	in Germany for example, that's really a lifetime job.	29:15
	You don't take a cut in pay after you retire.	29:19
	You take a cut in pay as far as that part of the pay	29:22
	which comes from the fees of students,	29:25
	so that may have been a consideration.	29:27
	So he's very much alive and he's in the British Academy	29:30
	and I've received reprints from him.	29:33
	My younger colleagues thought Hayek a very odd choice.	29:38
	They didn't realize, of course,	29:44
	what his lifetime integral of accomplishment was,	29:46
	nor do they know much about his work	29:50
	in connection with the Mont Pelerin Society,	29:53
	which is a society meeting about once a year,	29:56
	usually somewhere in Switzerland,	29:59
	to push the cause,	30:01
	for a long time unpopular in these states these days,	30:04
	of liberalism in the old sense of laissez-faire,	30:07
	of libertarianism in modern life.	30:12
	Well, I think that the Royal Academy of Sciences can	30:16
	congratulate itself this year	30:21
	on a job well done.	30:24

Item Info

Title:

Tape 165 - The noble laureates

Date:

1974

Contributor:

Samuelson, Paul A. (Paul Anthony), 1915-2009

Format:

audiocassettes

Digital Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson Economics Cassette Series

Source Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers

Series:

Economics Cassette Series: Paul Samuelson

Rights:

Limited Re-UseCC BY-NC 4.0

Rights Note:

This material is made available for research, scholarship, and private study. Copyright in this material has not been transferred to Duke University. For reuses of this material beyond those permitted by fair use or otherwise allowed under the Copyright Act, please see our page on copyright and citations: https://library.duke.edu/rubenstein/research/citations-and-permissions.

Identifier:

RL10082-CS-0154
duke:325177
pstau001154
ark:/87924/r4pc2tr70
d501fc9d-8eff-4e7d-9b6d-bb45786a2db1

Permalink:

https://idn.duke.edu/ark:/87924/r4pc2tr70

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Tape 165 - The noble laureates

Transcript

Item Info

David M. Rubenstein Rare Book & Manuscript Library