Tape 143 - Economic outlook for 1974

Download
- Rights
- Limited Re-Use
  CC BY-NC 4.0
  More Rights Info
- Files (1)
- MP3
- Please be patient with media downloads. They are often large files.
Share

Embed Code
<iframe src='https://idn.duke.edu/ark:/87924/r4dz03j1b?embed=true' height='125px' width='100%' frameborder='0' marginwidth='0' marginheight='0' scrolling='no' loading='lazy' allowfullscreen></iframe>
Permalink

https://idn.duke.edu/ark:/87924/r4dz03j1b
Skip to Item Info

Loading the media player...

Files for this Item

Transcript

Transcripts may contain inaccuracies.

-	Welcome once again as MIT Professor Paul Samuelson	0:02
	discusses the current economic scene.	0:05
	This series is produced	0:07
	by Instructional Dynamics Incorporated.	0:08
	This program was recorded December 20th.	0:10
-	This is the occasion for my annual outlook tape	0:14
	on what's going to happen to the American economy in 1974.	0:20
	A year ago, I had the same task	0:30
	to try to peer into the future	0:34
	and decide how the odds looked	0:37
	with respect to the American economy in 1973.	0:39
	It's worth a word or two at the beginning	0:45
	to go back to that time to see how things developed in 1973	0:47
	and compare that with how they looked to be a year ago.	0:51
	At the turn of the year from 1972 to 1973,	1:00
	there was the usual fashionable forecast	1:04
	that the fashionable forecast	1:08
	was on the whole an optimistic one.	1:10
	It predicted a strong increase in money GNP.	1:15
	It looked forward to a continuation	1:21
	of substantial real growth	1:26
	not as rapidly as in 1972 itself,	1:30
	but more rapidly than is required just to keep up	1:35
	with the long term trend of the American economy.	1:41
	And that fashionable forecast was reasonably optimistic	1:43
	with respect to some abatement	1:48
	of the rate of price inflation.	1:51
	Indeed, it was in the backwash	1:55
	of that rather optimistic fashionable forecast	1:58
	that the Nixon economic team	2:03
	made the fateful decision on January 11th 1973	2:06
	to suspend the phase two price controls.	2:11
	How did things shape up?	2:17
	In the event, we now know that the money GNP	2:20
	did increase strongly in 1973.	2:27
	The experts were right in that respect	2:31
	but they were not right for precisely the correct reasons	2:34
	because the experts all underestimated	2:40
	the degree of price inflation.	2:45
	They underestimated the degree of food price inflation	2:47
	in the first part of the year.	2:50
	These are supply and demand prices.	2:51
	They underestimated the amount of increase	2:54
	in industrial prices under the decontrol program	2:57
	as the phase two was gutted on January 11th.	3:04
	And the experts overestimated the rate of real GNP growth.	3:11
	This is very striking because within a couple of months,	3:19
	two to three months after the turn of the year,	3:25
	the more canny of the experts were changing their tune.	3:28
	And you could see the new fashionable forecast forming.	3:32
	And actually if we turn to the shading	3:37
	which had taken place by March	3:42
	from the January unmitigated optimism,	3:44
	it had moved in the following way.	3:51
	Namely, there was then by March	3:55
	came to be universal agreement	3:58
	among the fashionable forecasters, the experts,	4:00
	that there would be a growth rate slow down in real terms	4:03
	in the last half of the year.	4:08
	And as a matter of fact,	4:10
	they shifted their position just in time	4:12
	because just as they were shifting their position	4:15
	in the second quarter itself,	4:17
	the so-called growth recession already began to set in.	4:19
	So I would say that this has been a pretty good year	4:24
	for the experts.	4:30
	I was at a meeting just recently	4:31
	and they were all congratulating themselves	4:33
	on how closely they had hit the year.	4:36
	I was not quite as congratulatory to them	4:39
	as they were to themselves because there was after all	4:42
	that period from January to March	4:46
	before they really got the word of what was going to happen.	4:48
	Namely, that we would be moving	4:55
	into the growth recession sooner than before.	4:59
	Actually, there's a panel of 60 economists	5:04
	followed by the American Statistical Association	5:08
	and their median forecast has done pretty well	5:11
	over the years.	5:15
	It does as well as the random experts	5:17
	in the fashionable forecast.	5:20
	It does better than pure monetarism	5:22
	and it does better than non-judgmental computer forecasts,	5:26
	but perhaps not quite as well	5:33
	as the very best of the eclectic	5:36
	computer judgmental forecasters.	5:39
	Well, more interesting perhaps	5:44
	than the median figure given by the experts	5:47
	was a number which they collect	5:50
	which is the probability of a downturn	5:52
	two months ahead, four months ahead, and so forth.	5:55
	And already by the end of 1972,	5:59
	the probability of a downturn ahead	6:05
	was going up on the part of these experts.	6:07
	One of the reasons that the experts are complacent	6:12
	is that they give themselves the alibi	6:15
	that they couldn't have foreseen the increase	6:17
	in food prices and other prices.	6:19
	Well, if in the year	6:23
	when your price forecast turns out right, you take credit,	6:25
	then I would say those who take credit for the sun	6:28
	must be prepared to be blamed for the rain in some part.	6:32
	And so that is a defect of the forecasting art	6:36
	if price increases happen because of exogenous factors,	6:41
	harvests, and so forth,	6:46
	and if you aren't able to predict those,	6:47
	then you must admit that that is part	6:49
	of the imprecision of your forecasting ability.	6:51
	Let's turn from the past to what the outlook is ahead.	6:56
	And here, I think we should do it in two steps.	7:04
	We should begin with what the outlook was	7:07
	prior to the October war in the Mid East	7:11
	because once again there was forming a consensus,	7:15
	a clustering of the fashionable forecasters	7:20
	around a particular scenario.	7:24
	That scenario, you know very well.	7:26
	It was that 1974 was to be a year of growth recession.	7:29
	That the real output in 1974 was to grow positively.	7:34
	It was not to be a national bureau year	7:43
	of genuine recession,	7:45
	not even of the mini-recession type.	7:47
	But that positive rate of growth of real output	7:50
	in the four quarters of 1974	7:54
	was to average out perhaps at 2% per year annual rate,	7:58
	3% per year annual rate.	8:03
	Some of the fashionable forecasters might have said 1%.	8:06
	But within that range,	8:11
	you would capture most of their forecasts.	8:12
	They also forecast there would be	8:16
	some degree of inflation abatement	8:18
	so that instead of enjoying or suffering	8:21
	a 7% rate of increase in price inflation	8:26
	of the overall price index that's used as the GNP deflator	8:31
	which is what we did experience in '73.	8:36
	In '74, the optimists thought	8:39
	that we might go down to 5%, five and a half percent.	8:43
	There were a few optimists who even went down below that	8:48
	and a few optimists,	8:51
	and now I mean a few optimists	8:53
	with a good forecasting record,	8:55
	who thought that as far	8:57
	as the cost of living index is concerned,	8:58
	the improvement in the rate of inflation	9:00
	might be even more than that.	9:03
	You could begin to talk in some of the quarters in 1974	9:04
	of 3% rate of increase in prices and not more than that.	9:08
	This growth recession did mean	9:17
	some lessening of the steam in the economic boiler.	9:21
	It would imply some upward climb	9:24
	in the rate of unemployment.	9:28
	But the unemployment rate which had gone down	9:31
	in the fall of this year	9:34
	just before the Mid East war to four and a half percent	9:37
	could stand a bit of climb	9:43
	in the view of lots of economists,	9:46
	particularly non-university business economists.	9:49
	They were concerned whether the natural rate of unemployment	9:52
	at which inflation would begin to accelerate	9:56
	was as low as four and a half percent.	9:58
	So they thought of us as being in an overheated economy,	10:00
	the result in part of stimulating the economy	10:04
	for an election year.	10:08
	And so they were prepared to suffer.	10:11
	Of course, they wouldn't be out of jobs,	10:15
	but they were prepared to suffer fairly cheerfully	10:17
	an increase in the unemployment rate	10:21
	from four and a half percent	10:22
	to four and three quarter percent,	10:23
	to 5%, to five and a quarter percent,	10:25
	five and a third percent.	10:28
	And they were only going to begin to worry	10:29
	about that unemployment rate	10:31
	if it seemed to threaten to go to five and a half percent	10:33
	and above five and a half percent.	10:38
	With respect to profits,	10:41
	there was some spread of opinion among the forecasters,	10:44
	but on the assumption that the decontrol program	10:48
	would be favored by the administration	10:53
	and politically, it would be acceptable.	10:55
	They had some optimism that profits would not fall off	11:00
	in this growth recession in any degree.	11:06
	Some of them had a very slight drop in profits.	11:10
	Some had profits level throughout the growth recession	11:13
	to be followed by a climb later.	11:17
	And some even had an increase in profits.	11:19
	I'm of course speaking of money profits.	11:23
	Those are the kind that the accountants let you report.	11:26
	As an afterthought, many analysts pointed out	11:30
	that those profits were swollen	11:34
	by inventory valuation upward adjustments	11:36
	due to the inflation itself.	11:39
	And so if you put everything on a reproduction cost basis	11:41
	including the cost of reproducing the machinery	11:44
	that was being depreciated during the year	11:47
	in order to produce the output on which you made a profit,	11:49
	then you would find that your real profits	11:53
	corrected for price inflation	11:56
	were by no means as rosy as the reported money profits.	11:58
	The dollar looked as if it was going to improve.	12:07
	The medicine of exchange rate devaluation (mumbling)	12:10
	that took place in February.	12:16
	The even stronger medicine more often applied	12:18
	of depreciation of the dollar	12:22
	relative to some key currencies	12:24
	which took place in February	12:26
	and in March on an official basis	12:29
	and which continued on a floating basis	12:31
	of pretty much of a clean float basis up until June	12:34
	meant that the dollar	12:40
	was becoming more comparative all the time.	12:42
	And although we were troubled by our rate of inflation	12:45
	here in this country in 1973 and in 1972,	12:48
	when we looked abroad,	12:52
	we realized that the rate of inflation abroad	12:53
	was even greater than here.	12:55
	And so more and more of our export industries	12:57
	felt that they were becoming competitive.	13:00
	A very good example, of course, a dramatic example	13:04
	is that of the compact car and the mini car in Detroit,	13:07
	the American Motors Company cars,	13:11
	the Ford Maverick, the Javelin, the Vega, the Pinto.	13:14
	These were holding fairly constant with respect to price	13:21
	at a time when Volkswagens were going up in price	13:25
	in part because of the depreciation of the dollar	13:30
	which meant the appreciation of the mark.	13:34
	The Toyota, the Datsun, the Mazda, the Honda,	13:36
	they too were going up in price.	13:41
	More than that, with food scarce all around the world	13:44
	with the United States having in Iowa	13:48
	on our commercial farms	13:50
	great comparative advantage in foodstuffs,	13:52
	we were finding ourselves with very ready markets	13:55
	and at high prices.	13:58
	You might say that what the Arabian countries	14:00
	are experiencing this year	14:04
	which is a very high price for their exports,	14:05
	we were experiencing early in the year for our foodstuffs.	14:08
	And therefore, there was a very nice comeback	14:16
	in our merchandise balance of payments,	14:20
	a comeback in our current balance of payments	14:24
	on current accounts including invisibles,	14:28
	net export surplus rising nicely.	14:31
	And the basic deficit which takes into account	14:34
	the fact that the United States became a pretty good place	14:38
	to buy into, to invest in, to buy land if you were Japanese,	14:41
	to buy stocks if you were from Western Europe.	14:47
	The basic deficit was also improving.	14:50
	And so one had reason to look forward	14:54
	to a continuation of this trend.	14:57
	All in all, since following periods	15:00
	of overly strong expansion,	15:04
	there tends to be some need for periods of relaxation	15:07
	the way we have to run our mixed economy these days.	15:12
	That was a fairly cheerful picture	15:18
	and although it didn't seem so cheerful to many of us	15:21
	who were making that forecast at the time,	15:24
	in retrospect, we look back with nostalgia upon it.	15:26
	Then came the Mid East War.	15:31
	The impact of the belligerency itself on the economics	15:34
	is not particularly notable.	15:40
	Obviously, that was a very intensely fought war.	15:43
	It meant that inventories of tanks	15:47
	and munitions were depleted on both sides	15:49
	so it meant some nice reorders for the Russians	15:52
	on the part of the oil liquid Arabians,	15:55
	those countries which had oil giving Egypt and Syria	16:02
	which didn't have oil the revenues	16:06
	to support them in that rearming.	16:09
	It meant to some degree for the U.S. repurchases	16:11
	either by the Israelis who were paying for it themselves	16:16
	out of their own resources	16:21
	or to the degree that we were making loans,	16:23
	or putting it in the cuff,	16:27
	or making gifts as the so-called aid program,	16:28
	it meant some increase for the defense business,	16:32
	but this is negligible.	16:35
	If you reckon the total of this	16:36
	in comparison with what is needed	16:39
	to change the business situation for 1974,	16:43
	the Mid East War as a war	16:48
	has no important macroeconomic repercussions	16:50
	on Western Europe, on Russia, or on the United States.	16:53
	But in the aftermath of the war,	16:58
	we did have developing the oil boycott.	17:00
	The OPEC Monopoly of 1216 leading oil producers	17:04
	primarily in the Persian Gulf but not all of them Arabian	17:11
	was already flexing its muscles	17:16
	and increasing prices all the time.	17:19
	There was squeeze play on.	17:21
	Typical monopoly operation.	17:23
	And isolating each of the big consuming countries,	17:25
	some of which were very dependent upon Mid East oil.	17:29
	I'm thinking of Western Europe and Japan in particular.	17:33
	The monopolist was able to strike some very sharp bargains.	17:36
	From the standpoint of the monopolist	17:42
	and from the standpoint of the non-Arabian countries,	17:44
	the war was a godsend	17:47
	because it enabled a vast increase in the price of oil.	17:50
	And so the whole outlook has changed.	17:55
	If we are to have for as long as say half a year of 1974	17:58
	a shortfall in oil from the Mid East	18:05
	which by the President's reckoning	18:08
	will be in the order of magnitude of 17% of our oil needs.	18:11
	Let's say three million barrels per day	18:17
	out of an 18 million barrels per day needed.	18:20
	Then all of the fashionable forecasters	18:25
	began to go back to their computers,	18:28
	began to recompute the picture	18:29
	and they were able to find	18:31
	that we went from a likely growth recession	18:34
	with minority odds for a genuine recession	18:37
	in which you had	18:41
	at least two quarters of drop in real output	18:42
	to the odds favoring that real recession.	18:45
	And so I have to say	18:51
	that premised upon that prudent man's view	18:53
	with respect to energy	18:57
	that 1974 is going to be a year of genuine recession.	18:59
	The first half of the year is going to be weak.	19:05
	That output is going to decline	19:08
	for the first half of the year.	19:09
	The unemployement, if it was previously going to grow	19:11
	to five and a third percent,	19:14
	perhaps five and a half percent,	19:15
	then I have to go along with the fashionable forecasters	19:17
	who think that by the end of 1974,	19:20
	we'll be talking about 6% unemployment.	19:23
	In the case of some forecasters, even more.	19:28
	Now, I'm going to qualify this if proposition	19:31
	about energy in a moment,	19:36
	but let's stick with it	19:38
	because I think a prudent man must do so	19:39
	in the absence of knowledge to the contrary.	19:43
	This means for the year 1974, stagflation with a vengeance	19:46
	because instead of there being an abatement	19:51
	of the rate of price inflation,	19:54
	whatever abatement there may tend to be	19:56
	with respect to foodstuffs,	19:59
	whatever abatement there would tend to be	20:02
	with respect to international metals	20:05
	because Europe is going to be in a growth recession	20:07
	or now with an energy cut off to her too	20:12
	and I'll include Japan in this.	20:16
	She's going to move into a more genuine recessions.	20:18
	Whatever abatement you could have expected	20:23
	on the rate of inflation from those factors	20:25
	is going to be much more than outweighed	20:27
	by the increase in the cost of energy itself	20:29
	which is dramatic.	20:33
	Many of my listeners will have known that just a week ago,	20:35
	86 million barrels of oil were sold at auction by Iran	20:40
	not at the one dollar and two dollar price per barrel	20:46
	which was typical of just a couple of years ago,	20:51
	not at the three and four dollar per barrel	20:53
	which are typical of what's going on now,	20:56
	but at the 16 dollars a barrel	21:00
	and for low sulfur oil,	21:03
	for as much as 17 dollars and 40 cents a barrel.	21:05
	The part of the country where I am,	21:09
	we're beginning now to get the fuel bills	21:11
	which have gone up from 20 cents to 40 cents a unit.	21:14
	And the end is not yet.	21:21
	So when you take into account the energy induced shortages.	21:25
	I just saw a large tire company.	21:30
	I saw a letter to their suppliers	21:31
	speaking of a 26% increase	21:33
	in the price of tires by the spring.	21:35
	I make that out to be an annual rate of 100%.	21:38
	There is no way of reckoning all these matters	21:42
	without having for the first half of the year	21:46
	a horrendous increase in the annual rate	21:50
	of the cost of living index.	21:55
	In fact, everybody should begin to talk	21:58
	about the GNP deflator	21:59
	because that won't show quite such horrendous figures.	22:01
	And so we're now talking about stagflation.	22:06
	On this basis, a drop in profits is implied year over year.	22:10
	A drop in profits is implied	22:15
	from the fourth quarter of this year where we are now	22:19
	to the fourth quarter of next year	22:23
	even though that may be followed,	22:25
	according to the most fashionable forecast,	22:27
	by an increase in profits	22:30
	from say the fourth quarter of a year from now	22:32
	to the middle of 1975.	22:35
	I've looked at a round up of the conventional wisdom	22:40
	and it's amazing how a monetarist economist	22:46
	who does detailed forecasting has a figure	22:52
	which is just like that of a Keynesian economist.	22:56
	The different consulting firms,	23:02
	the Wharton School model,	23:05
	they all show pretty much a similar picture.	23:07
	And therefore, in summary,	23:14
	that is the single most likely picture.	23:19
	However, more valuable than having a particular number	23:23
	is to have a probability spread.	23:29
	And so I must call your attention	23:33
	to something very important.	23:35
	If you've read the London Economist	23:38
	this last week as I'm speaking,	23:40
	you will have been alerted to the fact	23:42
	that there may be an element of charade going on	23:44
	in the oil boycott.	23:47
	If you calculate how many tankers	23:49
	have been loaded in the last weeks of the boycott	23:52
	from the Persian Gulf on their way to Western Europe,	23:57
	to Japan, to the United States,	24:01
	then you would expect a tremendous shortfall	24:03
	from an earlier period	24:06
	or from what could have been expected from this period.	24:07
	And yet when the alert journalist of the London Economist	24:09
	did their numerical exercise,	24:14
	they found that not to be the case.	24:17
	I heard from a well-placed journalist	24:21
	with respect to Japan that he couldn't understand	24:24
	how the flow of oil was still continuing there	24:26
	in view of the tough talk of the Arabian nations	24:29
	and in view of the cries of pain	24:32
	by the Japanese government and the Japanese public.	24:35
	He still couldn't see it in the actual tangible statistics.	24:39
	Even Holland which is being made the special victim	24:44
	of a power play of diplomacy	24:48
	seems to have in Rotterdam pretty good inventories.	24:50
	A bank economist in the Midwest took a poll	24:57
	of the customers of his bank	25:01
	and not one of them had yet suffered	25:03
	from any energy shortage.	25:05
	And only one out of a fairly considerable number	25:07
	had legitimate grounds,	25:12
	tangible grounds for concern for the months ahead.	25:15
	So the conventional wisdom is beginning to think	25:20
	the three million barrels per day	25:24
	is not the correct number, the 17% number.	25:26
	The oil foundation research unit	25:33
	put the number down from three and a half million per day	25:35
	to two and a half million per day.	25:40
	And so we're getting a revisionist viewpoint.	25:41
	Moreover, the whole point of this	25:45
	is for the purpose of resting concessions from Israel.	25:47
	The only way to get those concessions from Israel	25:52
	is to put pressure on the United States	25:56
	to put pressure on Israel	25:58
	because Israel needs the munitions to maintain her security.	26:00
	And so if there seems to be some semblance	26:08
	of successful pressure on the United States	26:13
	and for this purpose, you know,	26:18
	the threat of an oil boycott,	26:20
	a Potemkin oil boycott, an unreal one	26:22
	may be as effective in terms of public relations	26:25
	as a real one.	26:27
	If there's effective pressure on Europe and Japan	26:28
	to put effective pressure on the United States	26:31
	to put effective pressure on Israel to make concessions.	26:35
	And if the Russians are able	26:41
	to put some kind of effective pressure on the Arabians	26:44
	to seem to be going along with the concessions,	26:48
	and we don't know what the Russian interest is	26:52
	whether their interest is in making trouble here.	26:54
	The fact that we have detente going	26:58
	doesn't mean a thing	27:00
	in terms of you're being able to predict	27:01
	what's going to happen.	27:02
	I may also say nobody has the slightest reason to know	27:04
	whether some concessions made by Israel	27:08
	will in fact in any degree satiate	27:12
	the desires of the Arabian countries.	27:15
	Henry Kissinger doesn't know that.	27:19
	He cannot know that.	27:21
	And I'm not sure the powers that be	27:23
	in the principle Arab countries	27:25
	are in a position to know that.	27:28
	Nevertheless, it's possible	27:31
	that having flexed the muscles of the monopoly	27:32
	that there will be a letting up of the embargo	27:35
	and then the stage is set actually	27:39
	for a rather unagonizing reappraisal of optimism,	27:42
	and you could have a lot of tinder around	27:46
	for an overheating of the economy,	27:50
	and an expansion, and for further price rise,	27:53
	and I may also say for stock market boom.	27:57
	But now, since my time is short,	28:00
	let me say that given the oil embargo picture,	28:02
	you must expect that long term interest rates	28:07
	will not come down very much.	28:12
	Housing starts being hard hit by the energy shortage	28:14
	for reasons I needn't detail in this annual survey	28:17
	will mean that mortgage rates will go down some	28:21
	as a result of determined federal reserve	28:25
	and housing agency actions.	28:28
	Corporate bond rates will not go down as much	28:31
	and so if you talk about 50 basis points	28:35
	on the long term rate	28:39
	between now and say the average of next year,	28:41
	you may be talking about	28:45
	all that you can get in the long term sector.	28:46
	In the short term sector	28:50
	in the face of this stagflation,	28:52
	the flation part, I don't see how you can get	28:54
	more than 100, 150 basis points reduction.	28:57
	You certainly are not going to get down to 4%	29:03
	and to 5% in my judgment.	29:06
	With respect to housing, the permits picture looks bad.	29:11
	There's a backup of units to be sold.	29:19
	People don't know where they've got the heating connection	29:25
	if they start to build a house.	29:27
	And so I think we have to be prepared	29:29
	that housing will fall off	29:31
	unless it is given special support.	29:33
	Given the energy shortage, I see no alternative	29:36
	but for the government to be accommodating.	29:40
	The Federal Reserve, I think,	29:45
	will have a countercyclical increase in the supply of money	29:47
	given that assumption.	29:52
	And this, they will be uncomfortable about	29:55
	because it will be in the face	29:58
	of rather horrendous price news.	30:00
	However, six months ahead	30:05
	if we're now talking about the middle of the year,	30:09
	unless you think of the embargo as permanent	30:12
	and I've seen no responsible persons	30:14
	who have been making policy on that basis	30:16
	and I reproached ourselves for that lack.	30:18
	The general picture	30:22
	should begin ahead to look more cheerful.	30:23
	The unemployment rate will be worse	30:27
	but the last half of '74 looks to be better	30:30
	and the conventional wisdom for whatever it is worth	30:33
	looking a year and a half ahead	30:37
	would think that we will be on the upswing again	30:39
	from the middle of next year to the middle of 1975.	30:43
	And this means that the stock market	30:50
	which always tries to discount ahead.	30:53
	Some people say it over discounts matters ahead	30:57
	will before that event actually comes into immediate view	30:59
	will already begin to act upon it.	31:07
	Now, I guess I should tell you if I'm going to be wrong	31:11
	in this general round up of forecasts	31:18
	in which direction I think I'm most likely to be wrong in.	31:21
	I think that we may all be too pessimistic	31:26
	rather than not pessimistic enough.	31:30
	It's part of the elevating of our consciousness	31:34
	with respect to the energy shortage.	31:36
	Even with the boycott being genuine,	31:39
	if the problem is handled at all well in Washington,	31:41
	there are lots of improvisations which can be made	31:46
	and there's a lot of good will on the part of the public	31:49
	which have nothing to do with price	31:52
	which will ration things out.	31:53
	Actually, we've already begun to see	31:57
	in the statistics of energy use	32:00
	some tremendously encouraging amounts of economizing.	32:02
	The trouble is it's like reducing.	32:08
	It's very easy for anybody to reduce for a short time	32:11
	but without the price incentive,	32:13
	it will be very hard to keep patriotism	32:15
	and social solidarity working.	32:17
	In short, the mixed economy is still in a healthy state.	32:21
	We can look forward over the '70s	32:26
	to a satisfactory rate of growth.	32:29
	Undoubtedly, we live in an age of creeping inflation	32:35
	and there is no solution in sight	32:39
	to the unemployment inflation trade off problem.	32:42
	Undoubtedly, we're moving into an epoch	32:47
	where energy is going to be dear.	32:50
	One prediction I can make with great confidence.	32:54
	There will be shortage of economic problems	32:57
	in the year ahead.	32:59
-	If you have any comments	33:01
	or questions for Professor Samuelson,	33:03
	address them to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated,	33:05
	166 East Superior Street, Chicago, Illinois, 60611.	33:07

Item Info

Title:

Tape 143 - Economic outlook for 1974

Date:

1973

Contributor:

Samuelson, Paul A. (Paul Anthony), 1915-2009

Subject:

Format:

audiocassettes

Language:

English

Digital Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010 and undated

Source Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010

Series:

Economics Cassette Series: Paul Samuelson

Rights:

Limited Re-Use

CC BY-NC 4.0

Rights Note:

This material is made available for research, scholarship, and private study. Copyright in this material has not been transferred to Duke University. For reuses of this material beyond those permitted by fair use or otherwise allowed under the Copyright Act, please see our page on copyright and citations: https://library.duke.edu/rubenstein/research/citations-and-permissions.

Identifier:

RL10082-CS-0137
ref2413_goq
samuelsonpaul
duke:325160
pstau001137
ark:/87924/r4dz03j1b
21caf89d-357b-4129-b6c8-5623e55b3164

Permalink:

https://idn.duke.edu/ark:/87924/r4dz03j1b

Sponsor:

Sponsor this Digital Collection

Tape 143 - Economic outlook for 1974

Transcript

Item Info

Economists' Papers Archive

More Info & Options