Tape 119 - The meaning of phase III

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-	Welcome once again as MIT Professor Paul Samuelson	0:02
	discusses the current economic scene.	0:05
	This bi-weekly series is produced	0:07
	by Instructional Dynamics Incorporated	0:09
	and was recorded January 12, 1973.	0:11
-	This morning when Bob Bender came in to record	0:15
	my words of wisdom he said, "I suppose there could be	0:19
	one topic you'll talk about," and of course,	0:22
	he had reference to the announcement just yesterday	0:25
	by President Nixon, that price and wage controls	0:28
	were to be essentially put on a voluntaristic basis	0:32
	except in the case of health care, food processing	0:35
	and the construction workers.	0:39
	This came as a bolt from heaven,	0:44
	as a complete surprise	0:49
	to the financial community.	0:51
	When economic events like this occur,	0:54
	pundits and academic professors like myself	0:58
	suddenly find their telephone ringing.	1:02
	Well, there have been really half 100 calls yesterday	1:04
	so that I finally took the phone off the hook.	1:09
	I won't tell a story as indicative of the degree of surprise	1:12
	and the amount of interest in the phenomenon.	1:18
	Was I surprised?	1:22
	Well, of course, I was surprised.	1:23
	But you will recall from a previous tape	1:27
	and actually the same note was sounded in my	1:31
	very last Newsweek column,	1:37
	that of the current week on the newsstand.	1:39
	I said that the logic of the situation,	1:43
	and this is important,	1:47
	the logic of the situation suggest that from 1973,	1:48
	President Nixon will have to continue	1:52
	the wage and price controls more or less,	1:56
	their phase two form.	2:00
	By that I meant that each passing day,	2:03
	each passing week shows the economy	2:06
	to have more steam in the boiler,	2:10
	than even the expansionist forecast of the fashionable mob	2:12
	at the end of the year had thought.	2:17
	Therefore, as far as market pressures on prices	2:20
	and non wages are concerned,	2:23
	there's every reason to think that '73	2:25
	is going to be a strong year and not a week year.	2:27
	And hence, in the absence of wage and price controls,	2:31
	there is reason to fear,	2:35
	that there will be upward pressure on prices and wages.	2:36
	Now, that's the logic of the situation.	2:41
	But then I went on to say,	2:43
	that a logic is not always guiding when you come	2:45
	to try to understand and predict Nixonomics,	2:49
	and I had a suspicion which I could not substantiate	2:53
	that we would not have wage and price controls	2:58
	until the end of the year,	3:01
	that rather we would try to button down a couple	3:02
	of important collective bargaining contracts	3:06
	and the rubber workers contract comes up in April,	3:09
	that's the first really important one.	3:14
	The second really important one is a big teamster contract	3:16
	in the later spring.	3:20
	And so I was warning my readers and telling myself	3:22
	that although the logic was against it,	3:26
	I thought there was a good chance that after those dates	3:28
	we would see a modification of the wage and price controls.	3:32
	Well, I hadn't allowed for the boldness of our president.	3:36
	He grasped the nettle	3:42
	and made this surprise announcement.	3:44
	Everybody is now reeling from the impact	3:49
	of that announcement and trying to find his bearings	3:52
	and trying to see what it probably means.	3:55
	Let me try to analyze some of the forces	4:03
	that I think can work.	4:07
	I have to warn you and warn myself	4:09
	that this is just the the second day	4:13
	we haven't learned the details.	4:17
	And so we have to improvise and try to guess	4:20
	what would be a possible form,	4:25
	for the new phase to take.	4:27
	Let's build on what it is that we do know.	4:34
	Why we're, food processing	4:39
	and healthcare and the construction workers	4:45
	not put over to a voluntary basis like everybody else?	4:51
	Doesn't seem a bit discriminatory?	4:56
	Perhaps to people in those lines of activities	4:59
	in equitable and unfair.	5:02
	There, I guess we have to say	5:06
	that in the case of health care,	5:07
	this is one of the few places where it appears	5:09
	that the pricing wage controls	5:13
	were almost certainly terribly effective.	5:15
	All of you know who buy automobile insurance,	5:20
	or health insurance.	5:24
	I say automobile insurance because	5:25
	your premiums in automobile insurance are related,	5:27
	if we're talking about liability,	5:31
	medical liability for damage you do to a person,	5:34
	to jury awards and jury awards are based upon hospital	5:37
	and doctor costs.	5:42
	Well, you all know that in the cost of living index,	5:44
	the component which has risen fastest	5:47
	and most steadily has been that of the cost of health care.	5:50
	The wives of physicians know this	5:55
	in their monthly income statements	5:57
	that their husbands bring home.	6:03
	The medical profession before the war,	6:06
	well, no, I shouldn't say even before the war,	6:09
	as recently as when the first edition	6:12
	of my textbook came out 1948,	6:14
	the medical profession was about on a par	6:17
	with the legal profession as far as earnings were concerned.	6:20
	Lawyers and physicians had about the same mean	6:23
	or median earnings.	6:27
	That is no longer the case.	6:30
	The median earnings for a physician today	6:32
	is according to my new ninth edition is coming out,	6:34
	estimated to be at $50,000 or more.	6:38
	In the legal profession, although there are a few prizes	6:43
	for very lucky and very able successful corporate lawyers,	6:48
	the median is a good deal below that,	6:53
	as a matter of fact, we're building up to a tremendous	6:55
	oversupply because all of our young people	6:57
	wanna go to law school these days,	6:59
	they also want to go to medical school,	7:01
	but they aren't able to get in because of the limitation	7:03
	of places and medical schools,	7:06
	but law schools pay their way by tuition.	7:07
	So you can always get into one law school or another.	7:11
	Hospital costs.	7:16
	If you had a baby,	7:18
	as recently as a quarter of a century ago, 25 years ago,	7:20
	you paid for a private room in the best hospitals,	7:26
	in a major American city, something like $10 a day.	7:29
	If you had a baby five years later,	7:34
	you paid something like $20 a day.	7:36
	If you had a baby five years later,	7:38
	you paid something like $30 a day,	7:39
	and the comparable figure today is $100 a day.	7:42
	This is not for a luxurious private room,	7:47
	just for an ordinary private room.	7:50
	The health industry is now I guess,	7:53
	our number one industry.	7:56
	We used to have agriculture as our number one industry,	7:59
	and I suppose the health industry has to compete	8:02
	for this dubious title of distinction,	8:04
	with the construction industry,	8:07
	with the defense industry, if you wanna to call	8:08
	that a single industry.	8:11
	I guess healthcare in the broadest is probably	8:14
	our number one industry.	8:17
	It's not spiked out I think for control however,	8:19
	because it's our number one industry in size it's because	8:23
	these are administered prices.	8:27
	These are not supply and demand prices.	8:29
	They are by the way not a large corporation prices,	8:31
	and not Galbraith giant prices,	8:35
	but there're prices which you name by Blue Cross,	8:38
	by various medical associations,	8:43
	by hospital organizations and by private hospitals.	8:47
	I guess they thought this works so well,	8:51
	and we just continue to put the pressure on them.	8:54
	That explanation can't hold in exactly the same form	8:58
	for food processing,	9:01
	which is a quite different kind of industry.	9:02
	The housewife, when beef becomes expensive,	9:05
	becomes desperate and frantic and like any human being,	9:09
	she lashes out to blame some scapegoat.	9:14
	The food processing industry is a natural scapegoat,	9:17
	particularly since everybody loves a farmer	9:20
	and doesn't want to blame a farmer	9:23
	for increases in farm prices.	9:25
	But the sober truth is that the food processing industry	9:28
	is a very competitive industry.	9:32
	The margins are low.	9:34
	As a matter of fact, most of you will know	9:35
	and you'll know it very acutely,	9:39
	if you have any investments in supermarkets	9:40
	that the A&P as it began to lose market share,	9:43
	just in recent months, has tried to come back	9:47
	by a strong discounting program.	9:51
	This has decimated profits throughout that industry.	9:57
	Nevertheless, when you go to buy your Thanksgiving dinner,	10:00
	your Easter dinner, your daily dinner,	10:05
	you find the cost of living is up.	10:09
	I'm sure that this was a sensible political move	10:12
	by the president, because people are so concerned	10:18
	with food processing, he wants to make sure	10:21
	that you don't get any add-ons in this particular area.	10:24
	I don't think by the way that his keeping this particular	10:28
	area under controls, is gonna have much effect	10:31
	upon your wife's weekly food bill,	10:34
	but it's a sap to a public opinion.	10:39
	When we come to the construction workers,	10:43
	who allegedly are kept	10:46
	on more than a voluntary basis	10:48
	There I think we have to invoke to explanations.	10:51
	The first is out of homonym,	10:55
	namely John T. Dunlop,	10:57
	Who is going to be the new price, wage control tzar.	11:00
	John Dunlop is the Dean of the Faculty at Harvard,	11:07
	that means he's the second in command there, to Derek Bach.	11:10
	He's a very well known labor economist.	11:14
	He's a distinguished scholar in his own right,	11:16
	and he's a tremendously energetic and effective	11:22
	wheeler and dealer.	11:25
	He happens to be a very old friend of mine.	11:28
	On that basis, I think you have to discount some	11:32
	of the use of praises that I may give	11:39
	as being not completely disinterested.	11:43
	When George Schultz was a graduate student	11:49
	at MIT Tech news PhD, he of course came into intimate	11:53
	contact with John Dunlap,	11:58
	who teaches labor economics,	12:01
	right a mile and a half up the river at Harvard University.	12:05
	When George Schultz was the Dean	12:10
	of the Graduate School of Business,	12:12
	and himself a labor economist, he, of course,	12:14
	still had a lot of contact with John Dunlop.	12:16
	It's no coincidence that when the president	12:18
	asked George Schultz, who should be added to the team	12:23
	and this at an earlier stage, John Dunlap's name came up.	12:31
	Now, John Dunlop is not particularly known as a Republican,	12:34
	bu he is not purely known as a Democrat.	12:40
	He is a neuter, he is in every party.	12:46
	If a prohibition party came into power in Washington,	12:49
	John would still continue I think,	12:52
	to commute down to Washington two or three days a week.	12:54
	When he was still much younger man,	12:59
	he was a very effective part of the Truman Steelman team	13:01
	in connection with labor relations.	13:07
	Back when $50,000 a year was a high salary,	13:09
	he received that amount of money as a part time tzar	13:13
	of jurisdictional disputes in the construction industry.	13:18
	As somebody said in the Boston Globe this morning,	13:21
	suddenly, of course, there's a great interest	13:23
	in John Dunlap,	13:25
	"John is the sort of fella who gives the impression	13:28
	of being more at home at a plumber's convention	13:31
	than in the sedate Harvard faculty."	13:34
	Well, when I took the first few calls yesterday	13:40
	before I had to take the phone off the hook,	13:43
	I was asked what about this fellow,	13:46
	and I had to answer,	13:48
	it was a joke but it was a joke well meant,	13:49
	that if anybody can do it, keep the cost of living donwn,	13:52
	John Dunlop can do it.	13:58
	There's no single man who has the potentiality	13:59
	for being as effective.	14:04
	But notice the if in my sentence,	14:06
	I don't believe that anybody can do it, I just think	14:10
	that John Dunlop will do the best he can	14:13
	and will be effective.	14:16
	Now the reason he was tapped for this job undoubtedly,	14:17
	is that for the last year and a half,	14:20
	at least since August 1971 when the President announced	14:25
	phase one and prospectively phase two,	14:29
	John Dunlop has been the chairman of the committee	14:32
	that's been holding down wages in the construction industry.	14:36
	I have commented in earlier tapes	14:39
	on the remarkable success of this operation.	14:41
	You know lots of the remarkable successes	14:45
	of the wage and price control,	14:48
	are really misidentifications.	14:49
	Wages and prices which we're going to come down anyway,	14:53
	at least in their rate of increase,	14:56
	did come down after the controls we're put in,	14:58
	and so the people who wheeled the controls	15:01
	are given the credit.	15:04
	I don't think anybody believes	15:06
	that in the construction industry,	15:08
	you can quite give that explanation,	15:10
	Because when this program that Dunlop spearheaded,	15:12
	I say he spearheaded it, but just as Louis XIV said	15:16
	the state, it is I, like I say more,	15:19
	We could say the Construction Council Committee is Dunlop.	15:24
	Well before they got going in a big way,	15:29
	the settlements were 20% per year.	15:32
	These were settlements everywhere.	15:37
	Even though construction firms are small firms,	15:39
	these are again not Galbraith and giants.	15:43
	It shows how superficial any analysis is,	15:45
	which thinks that the whole market power problem	15:48
	is tied up with a couple of hundred large corporations.	15:53
	No doubt a couple hundred large corporations	15:57
	have a kind of market power, which is different from that	15:59
	of a million adamistic farmers,	16:03
	who compete in a competitive weak market.	16:07
	But there is plenty of local monopoly	16:10
	in the field of construction.	16:13
	Now, why were those wages going up so much,	16:15
	and why were they able to bring them down?	16:17
	It's easier to answer the first question then the second.	16:19
	The reason they were going up so much,	16:22
	was that we had full employment,	16:24
	and every time there was a strike,	16:26
	and every time some construction firm	16:28
	was emboldened to take a strike	16:32
	and resist the wage increases of the Union,	16:35
	the workers simply got jobs elsewhere.	16:39
	A construction worker is a very mobile fellow,	16:43
	he can jump in his automobile and get a job 40 miles away.	16:46
	Moreover, sometimes every one who strikes by the way,	16:51
	was successful on the part of labor	16:54
	and unsuccessful on the part of employers.	16:56
	Now, how long does it take you to get the message?	16:58
	If you add the pressure that's behind the employers,	17:02
	if John Hancock is building a high rise building in Boston,	17:07
	and the contractor has a certain date of completion,	17:11
	he has very heavy penalties.	17:15
	And the John Hancock insurance company	17:17
	suffers very great penalties for each day of delay.	17:19
	So, some electrician can easily get $20 an hour.	17:22
	Indeed, we have to ask yourself why doesn't get $500 an hour	17:27
	if he has strategic bottleneck power,	17:31
	at an important juncture in the the process.	17:34
	Well, to make a long story short,	17:38
	those 18% settlements were brought down to 11% .	17:41
	That seemed disappointing some unsophisticated people,	17:44
	but those of us who knew that they'd been 18 and 20,	17:46
	had to be grateful.	17:50
	But miracle of miracles,	17:51
	I just got a release in yesterday's mail,	17:55
	showing that those settlements have been brought	17:57
	down five or 6%.	17:59
	Now, I don't think that miracles of this sort	18:02
	can be attributed even to miracle man like John Dunlop.	18:05
	We have another factored work	18:09
	that's been commented on.	18:12
	Increasingly non union contractors are beginning	18:13
	to take away business from union contractors.	18:17
	And I now don't mean in the suburbs,	18:21
	and I now do not mean	18:24
	in small scale residential construction.	18:25
	I'm now beginning to talk about large scale construction.	18:28
	A couple of our largest construction firms,	18:31
	are non union firms and they're picking off the market.	18:33
	There are some market forces here	18:37
	which Dunlop has been able to utilize.	18:38
	After all these pins of praise,	18:43
	let me know give the antidote.	18:45
	Now warning, I don't think that any amount of skill	18:48
	on his part, any amount of famous Dunlop blustering	18:52
	in the background, any amount of versatile compromise,	18:55
	can perform the same kind of miracle on the national stage.	19:00
	Let me now try to wrap up and summarize	19:05
	what seems to be indicated.	19:08
	First, I just cannot believe that the price goals	19:11
	which have not yet been announced,	19:18
	but which one could smell in the air,	19:21
	of two to 3% for 1973,	19:23
	can be realized.	19:28
	I don't think they could have been realized	19:30
	on the old non voluntary basis.	19:31
	And I know they won't be realized on the voluntary basis.	19:33
	Don't be misled by comparisons of calendar year 1973	19:38
	with calendar year 1972.	19:43
	Those comparisons will look better	19:45
	than the situation in 1973 because,	19:47
	half the weight in them is how well prices	19:51
	were behaving under the controls	19:54
	in all of 1972, here we're comparing two years,	19:59
	and the '72 moderation will be in those numbers.	20:02
	The correct thing for you to ask yourself is this:	20:05
	Starting January 1973 and ending January 1974,	20:08
	from New Year's Day to New Year's Eve in 1973,	20:14
	what's going to happen to consumers prices?	20:17
	And there all the Smart Money	20:19
	is saying that that's	20:24
	going to be an increase of more than 4%.	20:25
	Indeed, a lot of that is already on the way,	20:27
	you've seen what's happened in the case of food prices.	20:30
	It shows By the way, the boldness of our president.	20:33
	He got terrible news	20:36
	on the behavior of food prices.	20:38
	For last month was something like	20:42
	6% in one month.	20:46
	It makes no sense to multiply a number like that by 12,	20:49
	which give you 70% per year,	20:53
	but people interested in volatile staple commodities know,	20:56
	that a comprehensive index of those	21:01
	would probably be 27% higher at this moment than a year ago.	21:04
	So some of that is going to pay us down the line.	21:08
	When I was asked to comment on that at an earlier stage,	21:13
	I for once turned out to be a friendly commentator	21:17
	for the administration.	21:22
	I said, "I didn't think that you could blame President Nixon	21:23
	for that, and I don't think there's very much	21:27
	he can do about it.	21:28
	And I don't think that, I didn't think	21:29
	that putting wage and price controls on raw foods."	21:32
	Remember, we've been talking about food processing,	21:36
	but now let's go back to the source to raw foods.	21:38
	I don't think that that would help very much	21:41
	because what it would be likely to do,	21:43
	and this is something that Herbert Stein and George Schultz	21:45
	are very familiar with,	21:48
	and what would be likely to do,	21:51
	would be to dry up the supplies.	21:52
	And that will really drive the housewife frantic.	21:55
	If she can't get beef at any price,	22:01
	is bad to have to pay $1 and 80 cents	22:03
	for a rather course piece of beef.	22:06
	But at least she can keep her family getting a little meat.	22:08
	But if suddenly there's no meat in the market,	22:11
	because the price in one place has been frozen	22:13
	and the price and other price has been frozen,	22:17
	but the costs and profit calculations	22:19
	make all the beef go to one place and not the other,	22:24
	then politically, that's real dynamite.	22:26
	That's actually some of you will remember,	22:29
	what ended the OPA prematurely,	22:31
	as some people thought right after the cessation	22:35
	of hostilities in World War II.	22:38
	So, we're going to not realize the administration's goal.	22:41
	There's going to be a lot flack.	22:46
	I'm not a great believer	22:49
	in voluntary wage and price controls.	22:50
	I think that at times you have to rely on them,	22:56
	but they certainly don't have the potency	22:59
	of mandatory ones and anyone, for example,	23:01
	who owned automobile company stocks,	23:05
	let's say a volatile leverage item like Chrysler	23:08
	was not surprised that on the wake	23:12
	of the President's announcement, you got a big leap,	23:14
	you probably got an increase in one day of two to 5%	23:18
	of the price of of Chrysler.	23:22
	Because the auto automobile industry is hurting	23:25
	under the control program.	23:27
	And although they still have to justify	23:29
	any increase in prices, they feel that they can	23:31
	more than justify in terms of the cost of pollution	23:36
	control et cetera, et cetera.	23:40
	Increases, add-ons and I expect the 1973 myrtles	23:42
	from now on to begin to cost a little bit more.	23:47
	Why then, did the President do it?	23:53
	I think the answer has to be found	23:57
	by asking the following question.	23:59
	When's a better time to do it?	24:04
	How do you get off a tiger?	24:08
	It's always uncomfortable getting off a tiger,	24:10
	and the president decided that he would take	24:14
	his lumps now, there are no elections coming up.	24:17
	I will suppose that figures in his mind.	24:21
	So, I would say that's the main reason.	24:24
	People speak of a reentry problem,	24:28
	meaning how to get to full employment	24:30
	without hitting a ceiling,	24:32
	I think there's an equally interesting re-entry problem,	24:33
	how to get rid of the controls.	24:37
	I would suppose the President has picked a rather	24:41
	poor time get rid of the controls	24:45
	in terms of what's going to happen to prices	24:47
	because of the amount of steam.	24:49
	But remember two things.	24:51
	First, his advisors never wanted	24:53
	the price and wage controls.	24:55
	Herbert Stein was not an advocate	24:58
	of the price and wage controls.	24:59
	It was done over his live body.	25:01
	George Schultz was not a proponent of those,	25:03
	it was done over his live body.	25:06
	Those are his advisors now, and who knows where	25:08
	Mr. Connolly is now, he's a private citizen	25:10
	back somewhere in Texas.	25:14
	So, that would predispose the president	25:17
	toward that particular act.	25:20
	Enough of trying to understand the present	25:24
	and explain the past, let's look to the future.	25:27
	What is ahead?	25:31
	Without this move, one could have expected profits	25:34
	to increase in the year ahead,	25:38
	somewhere in the 10 to 20% range.	25:41
	I guess the bulk of the forecasters a month ago	25:46
	would have been in the lower part of that range,	25:50
	it seems to me that you must now move your forecast	25:53
	into the upper part of that range,	25:57
	because of the cessation of controls,	25:59
	but also because of the increased steam in the boiler	26:01
	that is revealing itself to us in the last month.	26:06
	It looks as if profits will be up,	26:11
	I think that the wage settlements will be less moderate	26:14
	than they otherwise would have been.	26:19
	I expect a big concern about inflation.	26:21
	This means and I'm sure the president had this completely	26:25
	in mind when he made the decision,	26:28
	it means that the president very soon now	26:29
	is going to come in very hard,	26:32
	if he was a Keynesian in 1972,	26:34
	in that election year, he's gonna be a different	26:39
	kind of Keynesians.	26:41
	Some people would call him anti Keynesian,	26:43
	but Keynesianism is a two way street.	26:45
	He's going to be a contractionary Keynesian in 1973.	26:47
	This means he's going to encourage the Federal Reserve	26:52
	to clamp down on the money supply.	26:55
	It means that	26:57
	monetary squeeze is ahead,	27:00
	that doesn't mean it has to be like the 1966 squeeze.	27:05
	It means that the president is going to come out very strong	27:09
	for expenditure control.	27:12
	I think he's going to get his 250 billion pretty easily	27:14
	for this fiscal year.	27:18
	But the real fight the real issue, is not about spending	27:20
	between now and July, that's practically here,	27:24
	it's about the next fiscal year.	27:27
	And I think there's going to be strong pressure,	27:28
	not to spend appropriate money in the next fiscal year	27:30
	and strong pressure on the Congress with lots of vetoes	27:33
	against new spending programs.	27:36
	Now, that's a kettle of fish which the president	27:40
	had an interest in without regard to business cycle reasons.	27:43
	I've to leave you with the question of whether	27:48
	this steam in the boiler is going to blow its top in 1973,	27:52
	and whether the happy prosperity	27:59
	is going to be brought to an end with the new round	28:02
	of stagflation, the second Nixon stagflation.	28:05
	It's too early to state the odds with any precision	28:12
	upon that, but that's the issue	28:16
	which we will be talking about,	28:19
	and we will be facing in the months to come.	28:22
-	If you have any comments or questions	28:25
	for Professor Samuelson,	28:27
	address them to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated,	28:29
	166 East superior Street, Chicago, Illinois	28:32
	six, O, six, one, one.	28:35

Item Info

Title:

Tape 119 - The meaning of phase III

Date:

1973

Contributor:

Samuelson, Paul A. (Paul Anthony), 1915-2009

Subject:

Format:

audiocassettes

Language:

English

Digital Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010 and undated

Source Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010

Series:

Economics Cassette Series: Paul Samuelson

Rights:

Limited Re-Use

CC BY-NC 4.0

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This material is made available for research, scholarship, and private study. Copyright in this material has not been transferred to Duke University. For reuses of this material beyond those permitted by fair use or otherwise allowed under the Copyright Act, please see our page on copyright and citations: https://library.duke.edu/rubenstein/research/citations-and-permissions.

Identifier:

RL10082-CS-0117
ref2373_fr1
samuelsonpaul
duke:325140
pstau001117
ark:/87924/r4jw87416
b604e77d-f4fa-467c-956a-e7c2dfec5189

Permalink:

https://idn.duke.edu/ark:/87924/r4jw87416

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Tape 119 - The meaning of phase III

Transcript

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Economists' Papers Archive

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