Tape 98 - Everything you always wanted to know about current economics
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Transcript
Transcripts may contain inaccuracies.
- | Welcome once again as MIT Professor Paul Samuelson | 0:02 |
discusses the current economic scene. | 0:04 | |
This biweekly series is produced | 0:07 | |
by Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 0:08 | |
and was recorded March 24, 1972. | 0:11 | |
- | Today, I'd like to talk about current economic | 0:14 |
developments as far as the business cycle is concerned. | 0:18 | |
I've jotted down half a dozen different points. | 0:22 | |
I know I won't be able to cover them all in the course | 0:25 | |
of one tape, but let me list them. | 0:27 | |
What's happening to the gross national product? | 0:30 | |
How will we do in the first quarter? | 0:33 | |
What is the outlook for the remaining quarters | 0:34 | |
of the year? | 0:37 | |
In particular, what about the breakdown | 0:38 | |
by different components, any surprises there? | 0:40 | |
That's point number one. | 0:43 | |
Point number two, what are monetary developments? | 0:45 | |
What seemed to be indicated for the future? | 0:49 | |
Point number three, how are prices behaving? | 0:53 | |
Should we be surprised, or is everything about on schedule | 0:56 | |
in connection with phase two and other matters? | 1:00 | |
In fact, I have as point number four, phase two itself. | 1:03 | |
How are the direct controls? | 1:07 | |
Those prices which are most dependent upon | 1:09 | |
the direct controls and wages, | 1:12 | |
what is happening there and what is the meaning | 1:14 | |
of the walk out by the labor members? | 1:17 | |
Fifth point has to do with interest rates. | 1:20 | |
And the sixth point, which I doubt that we'll get to, | 1:24 | |
has to do with, what does this all add up to | 1:28 | |
for general stock market considerations? | 1:31 | |
Now, these points are all interrelated. | 1:35 | |
Some people before they discuss GNP would discuss money, | 1:37 | |
and some people in discussing money in the same breath | 1:41 | |
would discuss interest rates. | 1:44 | |
Still, one thing at a time. | 1:48 | |
First, I would say that as far as the developments | 1:51 | |
of the gross national product, in 1972, | 1:55 | |
as we're coming toward the end of the first quarter, | 2:00 | |
things seem to be pretty much on target, | 2:04 | |
if your projections were those of the shaded | 2:07 | |
down fashionable forecast. | 2:12 | |
In order to make the President's goals, | 2:18 | |
we would have to have in the first quarter of the year | 2:23 | |
something like a 30 billion dollar increase in GNP. | 2:26 | |
Pessimists think that we'll be down in the low 20s, | 2:32 | |
but my reading of the incomplete statistics, | 2:36 | |
and you must remember, that when we end the first quarter, | 2:39 | |
statistically, we are still right in the middle | 2:43 | |
of the first quarter. | 2:46 | |
But my general reading would suggest to me that | 2:47 | |
if I had to make a single guess, | 2:51 | |
I would rather be in the above 25 billion. | 2:53 | |
In other words, between 25 and 30 billion, | 2:56 | |
than in the 20 to 25 billion. | 2:58 | |
Housing starts have been doing very well. | 3:02 | |
Inventory accumulation seems to be beginning. | 3:06 | |
Many people take heart at that. | 3:10 | |
It's a somewhat rueful reflection, | 3:14 | |
that people are very anxious to have inventories | 3:17 | |
begin to boil. | 3:21 | |
I'm not sure that that is a well founded view | 3:23 | |
from the long run, because the faster | 3:28 | |
inventories take off, the sooner you're gonna get | 3:32 | |
into trouble from an over accumulation of inventories. | 3:35 | |
I daresay that commentators in general, | 3:39 | |
who have no personal stake particularly | 3:42 | |
in the November election, are being swept into | 3:44 | |
the election psychology of the year 1972. | 3:48 | |
Well I'll try to resist that psychology, | 3:53 | |
and simply positively state | 3:57 | |
that there is some signs of inventory accumulation. | 4:01 | |
The plant equipment surveys have been very favorable, | 4:06 | |
and we've had a revision upward of the December numbers. | 4:09 | |
So, all the components of the GNP, | 4:14 | |
with the exception of the international, | 4:19 | |
have been fairly favorable. | 4:23 | |
Retail sales, too, have been a little bit on the flat side, | 4:27 | |
but flat is not down, and we shall soon | 4:31 | |
all be alibiing and making allowances | 4:35 | |
for the shortness of the Easter shopping season | 4:37 | |
this year in comparison with next. | 4:42 | |
As far as automobiles are concerned, | 4:45 | |
that Bellwether, each 10 day report | 4:46 | |
has its ups and its downs. | 4:50 | |
But by and large, I think that the noises | 4:52 | |
that are coming out of Detroit are fairly happy noises. | 4:55 | |
So, as far as I can see, | 5:01 | |
in making a guess as to what the money, | 5:05 | |
gross national product, will be in 1972, | 5:08 | |
just take the 1971 number, | 5:12 | |
and don't add 100 billion to it, | 5:16 | |
as the optimists in the fashionable crowd were doing | 5:19 | |
at the end of last year, before the GNP data got revised. | 5:24 | |
But add 90 billion to that, and we are on target, | 5:28 | |
with respect to that particular number. | 5:34 | |
I want to remind you just to orient | 5:37 | |
what 90 billion means. | 5:41 | |
That's a little bit less than 9% | 5:44 | |
for year to year comparison. | 5:48 | |
But it means in terms of the fourth quarter of last year, | 5:53 | |
to the fourth quarter of this year, | 5:58 | |
much more like | 6:02 | |
95, 97 billion. | 6:07 | |
And so it's an over 9% increase. | 6:10 | |
And all that is compatible with corporate profits | 6:13 | |
after taxes, doing rather nicely in 1972 | 6:17 | |
in comparison with 1971. | 6:22 | |
If we had corporate taxes last year of | 6:26 | |
about 47 billion, why don't we add about 15% to that, | 6:28 | |
and speak of corporate profits after taxes for 1972 | 6:36 | |
of something like 55 billion. | 6:40 | |
Now... | 6:46 | |
What is being assumed about the money supply, | 6:48 | |
in my giving this a particular prospectus? | 6:51 | |
Some people would say that I must have got | 6:57 | |
at this number by already having made | 7:00 | |
an implicit prediction about the money supply. | 7:03 | |
My belief is that the recent increase in the money supply | 7:08 | |
numbers was anticipatable before the fact, | 7:13 | |
and that it's going to continue for some time. | 7:18 | |
Even though from now on out, it is my guess | 7:20 | |
that the open market committee of the Federal Reserve System | 7:25 | |
is going to be issuing noises to itself, which we will | 7:29 | |
learn about 90 days from now, towards holding down | 7:33 | |
the rate of growth of the money supply. | 7:39 | |
A great number of different GNP forecasts which I have | 7:43 | |
seen suggest that in the first half of the year, | 7:46 | |
the money supply... | 7:50 | |
I'll use the ordinary conventional N1 | 7:53 | |
currency and demand deposits. | 7:57 | |
In the first half of the year, it's probably likely | 7:59 | |
to grow something like eight to 9%. | 8:01 | |
And in the last half of the year, is likely | 8:04 | |
to grow something like about 6%, | 8:06 | |
which will average out for the year on the high side, | 8:10 | |
in comparison with say, last year's numbers. | 8:13 | |
And also on the high side, in comparison | 8:17 | |
with what the people who believe in a money | 8:20 | |
supply target as the target, | 8:24 | |
would themselves generally recommend. | 8:27 | |
But I want to remind you that this is an election year, | 8:30 | |
and that the rates which are correct from a long run | 8:33 | |
viewpoint are not likely to be realized in a year | 8:39 | |
that's divisible by four, when everybody has | 8:44 | |
become conscious of how important the economic | 8:47 | |
situation is to the outcome of the election. | 8:50 | |
There's a further point which I will come to when | 8:56 | |
I get to the discussion of interest rates. | 8:58 | |
I believe that the international crisis | 9:03 | |
that I commented on in my very last tape | 9:06 | |
is going to have a direct influence | 9:09 | |
of some importance on the interest rate structure | 9:13 | |
and on the rate of growth of the money supply. | 9:19 | |
Last time, I quoted from that day's newspaper, | 9:22 | |
in which the prominent spokesman for the government | 9:25 | |
out of Washington... | 9:31 | |
I believe I also quoted one Federal Reserve Spokesman. | 9:32 | |
Said they weren't going to pay any attention | 9:36 | |
to the international situation, in any degree, | 9:38 | |
if that jeopardized the recovery domestically. | 9:42 | |
I didn't believe that then. | 9:50 | |
I don't believe that now. | 9:52 | |
And we have had, in the last couple of weeks, | 9:54 | |
definite indications that the government people | 9:58 | |
are becoming more conciliatory, | 10:03 | |
even in their utterances on this matter. | 10:06 | |
It is widely believed, for example, | 10:09 | |
that Dr. Arthur Burns, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, | 10:11 | |
and I may say that he has an importance beyond | 10:18 | |
being the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, | 10:20 | |
is an importance because he is a skilled | 10:23 | |
economic analyst in his own right worth listening to. | 10:26 | |
But he also has an importance because although | 10:30 | |
we have an independent Federal Reserve system, | 10:35 | |
its independent chairman is a close friend | 10:39 | |
of President Nixon. | 10:42 | |
And I was actually a bit surprised to see | 10:44 | |
in the White House meeting, | 10:47 | |
on the occasion when the President spoke out | 10:51 | |
against George Meany's leaving the Wage Board, | 10:56 | |
that seated around the table, with all the top brass | 10:59 | |
from inside the administration itself, | 11:02 | |
was the independent chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. | 11:05 | |
We've come along way brother, as the popular song says, | 11:11 | |
from the days when Woodrow Wilson would not | 11:15 | |
even invite to a social reception in the White House, | 11:19 | |
a member of the Board of Governors | 11:23 | |
of the Federal Reserve System, | 11:25 | |
for fear that in their innocent merriment, | 11:26 | |
over the fruit punch, they would be jeopardizing | 11:30 | |
the independence of the different branches of government. | 11:34 | |
Well, it is widely rumored. | 11:38 | |
And what's important is not whether the rumor is true, | 11:41 | |
but that it is believed. | 11:44 | |
And of course, it has not been denied | 11:46 | |
that Dr. Burns went to Basel | 11:49 | |
at the Bank for International Settlements. | 11:52 | |
It is not his custom to go to each monthly meeting. | 11:55 | |
Dr. Dewey Danae, board member of the Board of Governors, | 11:59 | |
typically goes to that. | 12:04 | |
Perhaps some rotating other people occasionally go. | 12:05 | |
But in the crisis environment which I described | 12:09 | |
in last week's, last two weeks ago's tape, | 12:11 | |
on the international front, which is not over, I may say, | 12:15 | |
the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board chose to go. | 12:19 | |
And it is said that he told the Europeans | 12:23 | |
that the Federal Reserve was not prepared | 12:26 | |
to preside over the liquidation of the dollar | 12:29 | |
as a stable currency. | 12:33 | |
And it was going to give due consideration | 12:35 | |
to the international situation | 12:39 | |
in everything that it did, | 12:41 | |
which had a bearing upon short term | 12:45 | |
and other interest rates. | 12:47 | |
Well, we have an interconnected system. | 12:50 | |
You can not do something nice about short term | 12:53 | |
interest rates, which will please people abroad, | 12:56 | |
and at the same time, not be doing anything | 12:59 | |
about the rate of growth of the money supply. | 13:02 | |
So I've tried to factor that element into my equation | 13:05 | |
in making my forecast about the money supply. | 13:10 | |
Let me turn now to point three. | 13:16 | |
Some people will consider it especially natural | 13:18 | |
to go from the money supply to prices, | 13:21 | |
because the old fashioned quantity theory of money | 13:24 | |
had to do only with those two magnitudes | 13:28 | |
on the supposition that the other elements | 13:32 | |
in the equation could be considered to be quasi constants. | 13:35 | |
I think there's a lot of merit in that | 13:42 | |
as a long run theory. | 13:44 | |
In the long run, there is a strong tendency | 13:47 | |
for the heat in the room that I'm sitting in, | 13:52 | |
the temperature in this room, to accommodate itself | 13:54 | |
to the temperature outside. | 13:57 | |
It's very much like what some sage has spoken of | 13:59 | |
as the flat tire theory of economics. | 14:05 | |
But it takes an awful long time | 14:10 | |
before the temperature in this room | 14:13 | |
is gonna accommodate itself to the outside temperature. | 14:15 | |
And a lot of us are going to be spending all of our time | 14:19 | |
to keep that from happening. | 14:22 | |
In fact, I don't expect that to happen in my lifetime. | 14:23 | |
It'll be very uncomfortable for me | 14:27 | |
if the temperature in my room accommodates | 14:30 | |
itself to the outer temperature, | 14:33 | |
except when I want it to, | 14:35 | |
which is in the spring and in the autumn. | 14:37 | |
I want it to be cooler in the summer, | 14:39 | |
and there are efficacious ways of ensuring that that's so. | 14:41 | |
Indeed, every tire in the world which is not flat | 14:45 | |
is, if you understood thermodynamics, | 14:50 | |
trying to get flat, and is succeeding. | 14:53 | |
Go away 1000 years from a properly inflated tire, | 14:56 | |
and come back, and you will find a flat tire. | 15:00 | |
We live on the transition. | 15:04 | |
And of course, that's what the trouble is | 15:07 | |
with the old fashioned quantity theory of money. | 15:09 | |
It concentrates upon the long run. | 15:12 | |
It's all very well to do that, | 15:15 | |
if you warn everybody that it is the long run | 15:17 | |
you're talking about. | 15:19 | |
But we live in a succession of contrived short runs. | 15:20 | |
So, the important thing about prices | 15:25 | |
that I must talk about, | 15:27 | |
which you've been reading about in the newspaper, | 15:29 | |
the great disappointment to Washington. | 15:31 | |
Because wholesale prices leaped forward, | 15:33 | |
the cost of living leaped forward. | 15:36 | |
The most it's leaped forward in months, | 15:38 | |
as the commentators say. | 15:41 | |
The prime reason for that, in my judgment, | 15:44 | |
does not have to do with phase two. | 15:49 | |
It has to do with food prices. | 15:51 | |
And it is more closely related to what I've talked about | 15:53 | |
in a couple of tapes. | 15:56 | |
The corn blight. | 15:58 | |
What, you say? | 16:00 | |
The corn blight happened a long time ago. | 16:02 | |
Since then, we've had a bumper corn product, true. | 16:03 | |
But those who understand the mechanics of the corn | 16:07 | |
hog cycle realize that a snake like movement | 16:10 | |
is set into motion by a corn blight. | 16:14 | |
And we are in one phase of that snake like motion. | 16:18 | |
Later on, that bumper corn crop is going to give | 16:22 | |
us cheaper beef, but as the angry housewives say | 16:25 | |
as they storm the meat counter of the supermarket, | 16:29 | |
they can not live in the future. | 16:32 | |
And they're complaining about the high prices now. | 16:35 | |
Well, of course, the whole price level around which | 16:39 | |
this undulation takes place, does have a lot to do | 16:42 | |
with that longer run behind us of what | 16:45 | |
the Federal Reserve was doing all through the 1960s, | 16:47 | |
and what fiscal policy was then, | 16:52 | |
and what fiscal policy is now. | 16:53 | |
It's just that we must, in a fair minded objective, | 16:57 | |
careful and eclectic way, separate out | 17:03 | |
all these different elements. | 17:05 | |
Otherwise, we will be misunderstood, | 17:07 | |
because we will be uttering truths, | 17:09 | |
but one tenth truths. | 17:13 | |
It takes ten tenths of a truth to make the whole truth. | 17:16 | |
Now, I think this increase in the price of food | 17:23 | |
is going to have political repercussions. | 17:28 | |
It can not help but have repercussions upon phase two. | 17:32 | |
And let me turn very briefly to phase two, | 17:36 | |
briefly, because I haven't very much to say about it. | 17:40 | |
The labor members of the AFL CIO have walked off the board. | 17:44 | |
It is interesting that not all five members have. | 17:53 | |
I don't suppose it's surprising that the Teamsters | 17:57 | |
union official remains on the board, because we know | 18:00 | |
that a special relationship has been set up between | 18:04 | |
the Teamsters union and the administration. | 18:09 | |
The wooing of the Teamsters union | 18:13 | |
by the administration has been somewhat successful. | 18:16 | |
I suppose we have to include in this the problem, | 18:20 | |
the parole, of Jimmy Hoffa. | 18:23 | |
But the Teamsters union is a law unto itself. | 18:29 | |
The most reactionary newspaper which we were all | 18:31 | |
reading about in New Hampshire was financed | 18:33 | |
by the Teamsters union. | 18:36 | |
And Mr. Loeb of the Manchester Union leader, | 18:39 | |
who picks on every liberal and radical cause, | 18:45 | |
and every middle of the road person | 18:49 | |
to him looks like a flaming radical, | 18:51 | |
is soft as soft can be on organized labor, | 18:54 | |
particularly where it touches at all upon | 18:58 | |
the interests of the Teamsters. | 19:01 | |
Well, what's more interesting is that | 19:04 | |
the UAW, the United Auto Workers President, | 19:08 | |
Leonard Woodcock, is still on that board. | 19:13 | |
And the fact that two members have stayed | 19:16 | |
gives the administration the opportunity to maneuver. | 19:18 | |
I may say that I do not envy the problem | 19:22 | |
of the administration in this regard, | 19:26 | |
of course from a certain political viewpoint. | 19:28 | |
This strengthens the President, because people get | 19:31 | |
very angry at these rather stereotypes | 19:33 | |
of old old union leaders. | 19:38 | |
Gorge Meany does not have a great sympathetic residence | 19:42 | |
in the bosoms of most of the 200 million odd Americans. | 19:48 | |
I think from the standpoint of maximizing | 19:57 | |
the influence of organized labor that George Meany | 19:59 | |
is probably a detriment. | 20:04 | |
But still, if the President is very tough | 20:09 | |
and utilizes the political advantage he has | 20:15 | |
in being able to denounce in the way that | 20:17 | |
Franklin Roosevelt used to denounce | 20:20 | |
the malefactors of great wealth, | 20:21 | |
the present President can denounce the malefactors | 20:23 | |
of political powerism. | 20:28 | |
But if he does that, he does invite an increase | 20:31 | |
in class warfare in this country. | 20:35 | |
And he causes in the election year, | 20:37 | |
with which he's so much concerned, | 20:42 | |
a great amount of work stoppages, simple strikes. | 20:44 | |
1972 is a lucky year from the standpoint of strikes. | 20:49 | |
It's a lucky year from the standpoint | 20:52 | |
of how many first year agreements are opening up this year. | 20:54 | |
My recollection is that the amount of strikes | 20:59 | |
taking place now in 1972 is low. | 21:03 | |
But that could change if organized labor | 21:07 | |
as a whole, with some exceptions, | 21:11 | |
goes on the warpath. | 21:13 | |
The rumors that... | 21:16 | |
I was in Washington yesterday, | 21:17 | |
and the rumors that I was hearing had to do | 21:19 | |
with well, maybe, the number of business representatives | 21:22 | |
would be cut down to two from five. | 21:28 | |
And then you'd have two business representatives, | 21:32 | |
two labor representatives. | 21:34 | |
And the effect of this of course would be | 21:37 | |
to maximize the influence of the public members. | 21:39 | |
I must say that the public members have been | 21:42 | |
behaving better, from my viewpoint, | 21:44 | |
of what is required in the public interest. | 21:48 | |
Then either of the other two... | 21:50 | |
You remember the coal agreement, in which the business | 21:52 | |
and the labor people ganged up on the public members, | 21:54 | |
and gave a whopping increase, which almost scuttled | 21:59 | |
the program in its beginning. | 22:03 | |
And then it passed on the hot potato to the price board, | 22:05 | |
to countenance an increase in the price of coal | 22:10 | |
enough to justify that particular settlement. | 22:14 | |
Well, the public members stood out as heroes in my mind | 22:17 | |
on that particular occasion, heroes who lost. | 22:20 | |
And this reshuffling would improve, increase the power | 22:23 | |
of the public members. | 22:30 | |
Nevertheless, because of the bad luck, | 22:31 | |
that the prices that have nothing to do with phase two, | 22:35 | |
food prices primarily, international prices, | 22:38 | |
are misbehaving, is going to put a strain upon phase two | 22:41 | |
and the whole stabilization program. | 22:46 | |
Since I never had very high hopes for phase two, | 22:50 | |
I never thought that we'd realize the President's goals | 22:52 | |
of two to 3% overall price increase in 1972 | 22:55 | |
by the end of the year. | 22:59 | |
I must simply register that things will be a little worse | 23:01 | |
on the price front than I had thought. | 23:05 | |
What about interest rates? | 23:08 | |
Short term interest rates have gone up. | 23:10 | |
I expect them to go up further. | 23:14 | |
I think that every advance in the short term | 23:16 | |
interest rate from now on will put a strain upon | 23:20 | |
the maintenance of steady long term rates, | 23:24 | |
and will make it more difficult for long term | 23:27 | |
rates to continue their gradual easing downward. | 23:29 | |
I've noticed municipal bond long term rates | 23:32 | |
have started to rise already. | 23:35 | |
So, it seems to me that the smart thing | 23:37 | |
is to abet a continuation of the same movement. | 23:41 | |
I don't say it in a drastic and spectacular way. | 23:47 | |
Although, please keep your mind on the international | 23:50 | |
situation that I talked about last time. | 23:53 | |
Because if that international crisis, which I said | 23:55 | |
was quite possible with odds getting towards even odds, | 24:00 | |
were to happen, then you could see something spectacular | 24:05 | |
in the short term interest rate markets. | 24:10 | |
In other words, if any of you out there | 24:12 | |
are out on heavily margins leveraged bond positions | 24:14 | |
based upon the expectation that the general | 24:20 | |
macroeconomic interest rate structure will be | 24:24 | |
going downward, and you'll make a profit | 24:28 | |
on your bonds, then I think you're taking | 24:30 | |
an awful lot of risk upon yourself at this juncture | 24:32 | |
of the business cycle. | 24:35 | |
This does leave me with just a couple of minutes | 24:39 | |
to talk about the general stock market situation. | 24:41 | |
The stock market has risen considerably | 24:46 | |
since last Thanksgiving. | 24:49 | |
That I think was in line with properly discounting | 24:53 | |
the conviction with which one could believe that 1972 | 24:58 | |
was going to be a better year, along the general lines | 25:02 | |
of the fashionable forecast. | 25:05 | |
The improvement in stock market prices | 25:08 | |
is understated by the movement of the much watched | 25:11 | |
Dow Jones Averages. | 25:15 | |
If you've gotta watch some averages, you should watch | 25:17 | |
the Comprehensive New York Stock Exchange Average, | 25:20 | |
plus the American Stock Exchange Average, | 25:23 | |
plus the Over the Counter Average. | 25:25 | |
But if you haven't time for all that, | 25:28 | |
why don't you just watch | 25:30 | |
the 500 Standard and Poor's Comprehensive Index? | 25:32 | |
And if you utilize those indexes, | 25:37 | |
then the Stock Market has gone to a new peak. | 25:40 | |
In other words, it's as if the Dow Average | 25:46 | |
has gone beyond the 1000, which it reached twice, | 25:49 | |
almost reached twice, in the middle 60s | 25:54 | |
and in, around 1968. | 25:58 | |
If the Dow Jones were a representative average, | 26:03 | |
and if you were to wind it up along with stocks generally, | 26:05 | |
it is now over 1000. | 26:08 | |
Now, this can be justified because the profits | 26:12 | |
are still expected to rise. | 26:17 | |
This can be justified because, | 26:21 | |
I'm quoting people in the marketplace, | 26:23 | |
the price earnings ratio is not out of line | 26:25 | |
with what prudent men have thought was the proper | 26:29 | |
price earnings ratio. | 26:32 | |
Nevertheless, there are gonna be some strains | 26:34 | |
upon the advance if you have trouble from abroad. | 26:36 | |
Rising interest rates put a strain upon the stock market. | 26:41 | |
And so, you are left, and I leave you, | 26:45 | |
with where every investor, every speculator, | 26:49 | |
should be left in a well run speculative mark, | 26:52 | |
on the margin of doubt, with the price | 26:56 | |
of stocks having to float in competitive markets | 27:00 | |
in the next few months, to divide the bulls and the bears. | 27:04 | |
I leave to you whether the way those prices float | 27:08 | |
will be upward, sidewards, or downward. | 27:11 | |
- | If you have any questions or comments for | 27:15 |
Professor Samuelson, address them to | 27:17 | |
Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 27:19 | |
166 East Superior Street, Chicago, Illinois, 60611. | 27:21 |
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