Tape 76 - The European monetary crisis
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- | Welcome once again as MIT Professor Paul Samuelson | 0:02 |
discusses the current economic scene. | 0:04 | |
This biweekly series is produced by | 0:07 | |
Instructional Dynamics Incorporated | 0:09 | |
and was recorded May 14th, 1971. | 0:11 | |
Professor Samuelson, I see that | 0:14 | |
according to the front pages of the paper, | 0:15 | |
people have been discussing the European monetary crisis. | 0:17 | |
- | This week, there can only be one | 0:20 |
topic for economic discussion. | 0:22 | |
This is the week that the German mark | 0:24 | |
was permitted to float, to find its own level | 0:29 | |
according to momentary supply and demand. | 0:32 | |
Listeners of these tapes will not be, | 0:36 | |
I think, surprised at the development | 0:40 | |
nor will they be surprised to learn that | 0:42 | |
all things considered, I regard the so-called crisis | 0:47 | |
that happened last week and which I think is still | 0:52 | |
not quite over, I regard that as a good thing | 0:56 | |
and not as a bad thing. | 0:59 | |
I think that we and the world are better off | 1:00 | |
for its having taken place. | 1:03 | |
Let me analyze, let me give the reasons why. | 1:05 | |
By way of initial summary, | 1:11 | |
there are, in my opinion, three | 1:14 | |
causes of the present crisis. | 1:17 | |
First and by all odds the most important, | 1:21 | |
there is the long-term fact | 1:24 | |
that in my judgment | 1:27 | |
the American dollar is an overvalued currency | 1:28 | |
and has been an overvalued currency | 1:32 | |
probably at least since 1959. | 1:35 | |
I will elaborate on that view in a moment. | 1:38 | |
Second in importance to this long-range fact | 1:44 | |
of overvaluation | 1:47 | |
is the trend of interest rates in the United States. | 1:51 | |
Recently, we have been fighting unemployment, | 1:56 | |
and we have been doing so | 2:01 | |
by engineering easier money. | 2:03 | |
As a result, interest rates for domestic reasons | 2:07 | |
are supposed to be down in the United States, | 2:11 | |
down to levels lower than | 2:16 | |
those interest rates which for domestic reasons in Europe | 2:19 | |
are considered to be appropriate. | 2:22 | |
And in consequence, | 2:25 | |
the long-term cumulative deficit | 2:26 | |
has begun to show up as a very insistent and gnawing | 2:31 | |
oversupply of dollars in the hands of the | 2:38 | |
central banks of Europe. | 2:41 | |
Thirdly, and least important, | 2:45 | |
is the proximate cause which triggered off | 2:48 | |
the crisis. | 2:53 | |
That proximate cause of course involved | 2:54 | |
billions of dollars of speculative funds, | 2:57 | |
so-called hot money, but which I think it would be more | 3:01 | |
descriptive to call cool money. | 3:05 | |
The fact that five different research institutes in Germany | 3:08 | |
were about to release a report | 3:13 | |
urging upward revaluation of the mark | 3:17 | |
and perhaps floating of the mark | 3:21 | |
was a rumor | 3:25 | |
known to any interested speculator, | 3:27 | |
and this finally did it. | 3:30 | |
According to the stories, | 3:34 | |
and many of them are garbles, | 3:36 | |
but according to one version of the stories, | 3:37 | |
the Germans were literally | 3:40 | |
receiving | 3:43 | |
billions of dollars of | 3:45 | |
speculative funds, cool funds, | 3:48 | |
and on the day that finally suspension took place, | 3:51 | |
in the first four minutes of trading, | 3:56 | |
one billion dollars came in. | 4:00 | |
That was a straw which broke the camel's back, | 4:03 | |
and the Germans immediately suspended | 4:07 | |
adherence to the rules of the Bretton Woods game. | 4:12 | |
They stopped supporting the dollar | 4:14 | |
by being willing to purchase dollars for marks | 4:17 | |
at the agreed upon parity or the upper | 4:21 | |
interval of that agreed upon range. | 4:26 | |
So last week, there was no trading for a number of days | 4:31 | |
in dollars at many, | 4:35 | |
in all of Europe, I guess really. | 4:40 | |
Now, | 4:42 | |
strictly speaking, the official government ceased to trade. | 4:45 | |
Whether a private individual could have made a deal | 4:50 | |
without running afoul of the law, say, in Germany, | 4:53 | |
I don't know. | 4:58 | |
I would presume that in principle, | 4:58 | |
he would be free to make his own bargain | 5:00 | |
if he could find another person. | 5:02 | |
But I think in fact, | 5:03 | |
if you had been Diogenes with your lantern, | 5:04 | |
walking around Germany, trying to buy marks for dollars, | 5:06 | |
de facto you would not have been able to | 5:11 | |
find anybody to transact with, | 5:14 | |
so de facto and in Europe, | 5:17 | |
there was suspension of the dollar. | 5:21 | |
Now let me | 5:27 | |
go back to my three causes | 5:29 | |
and analyze them in a little greater depth. | 5:32 | |
We have had a miracle of productivity growth | 5:37 | |
in western Europe and in Japan. | 5:39 | |
If exchange rates were at all right in 1949, | 5:43 | |
how could any sensible person expect them | 5:47 | |
to still be right | 5:50 | |
in 1959, at the end of the decade? | 5:54 | |
The rates of real productivity | 5:57 | |
were very much greater in western Europe and in Japan | 5:59 | |
and in the United States. | 6:03 | |
This is somewhat surprising in its quantitative magnitude, | 6:05 | |
but it is not qualitatively surprising | 6:08 | |
because we are the most affluent | 6:11 | |
and the most productive nation in the world. | 6:14 | |
But the laws of technology are really available | 6:17 | |
to anyone who wishes to study them. | 6:20 | |
The methods of good management, | 6:22 | |
scientific management if you will, | 6:26 | |
are available for anyone to adopt. | 6:28 | |
And during the decade of the 1950s, | 6:32 | |
the Europeans and Japanese were closing the gap on us | 6:34 | |
in technology. | 6:39 | |
Actually, many of our consulting firms | 6:41 | |
were helping in this process. | 6:43 | |
Every time a textbook in technology is written at MIT | 6:46 | |
and becomes available around the world | 6:50 | |
and a publisher like my publisher McGraw-Hill | 6:53 | |
has done a very brisk business in | 6:55 | |
exporting textbooks in the post-war period, | 6:58 | |
post-World War II period, | 7:01 | |
that enables the less than most affluent | 7:04 | |
countries of the world to grow even faster than the | 7:07 | |
pace setter can grow. | 7:12 | |
Along with American textbooks and American consulting firms, | 7:15 | |
there has gone directly American licensing. | 7:20 | |
There has gone on all through the 1950s | 7:26 | |
and I'm speaking of how the situation was in 1959 | 7:29 | |
but there was continuation of this in the 1960s | 7:33 | |
as I'll describe in a moment, | 7:37 | |
there was going on a tremendous amount of | 7:39 | |
private foreign investment by American corporations. | 7:42 | |
I could not get on an airplane to Europe, | 7:45 | |
but what I saw not only | 7:48 | |
business executives from large American corporations | 7:51 | |
but really from quite small American corporations | 7:54 | |
starting up branch plants. | 7:57 | |
How, I may ask, could anybody expect this | 8:01 | |
not to result in some rather fundamental drifts | 8:04 | |
in cost levels, | 8:08 | |
differentially between nations? | 8:10 | |
If you add on top of this | 8:13 | |
the fact that we had very heavy Cold War expenditures | 8:16 | |
and the Korean War in the 1950s, | 8:20 | |
I think you will not be surprised | 8:23 | |
that by 1959, | 8:27 | |
it became apparent to almost everybody | 8:30 | |
that the dollar shortage, | 8:34 | |
the undervaluation of the dollar, | 8:36 | |
which may have prevailed roughly speaking from 1933 to 1955, | 8:38 | |
that that was definitely over, | 8:44 | |
and that the shoe was beginning to pinch on the other foot. | 8:46 | |
You could see this in our share of world exports. | 8:49 | |
If you looked at the prices, | 8:53 | |
the effective prices of our export goods | 8:56 | |
produced in the United States, | 8:59 | |
and compared them with the effective prices | 9:01 | |
of export goods in Europe from 1950 to 1960, | 9:04 | |
our prices rose relative to theirs. | 9:09 | |
The index numbers don't even do justice to this | 9:13 | |
because there was a great deal of unavailability | 9:15 | |
of goods from European manufacturers | 9:19 | |
at posted prices | 9:22 | |
in the early part of the period, | 9:25 | |
which was not true in the later part of the period. | 9:27 | |
And in the later part of the period, | 9:29 | |
there were accommodations of intermediate credit, | 9:30 | |
of short-term credit, even of long-term credit, | 9:32 | |
from German and other continental exporters. | 9:34 | |
So by the time of 1959, 1960, 1961, | 9:38 | |
I at least thought that the American dollar was overvalued. | 9:47 | |
This was not a majority view at that time. | 9:49 | |
But I think that many economists, if I may say so, | 9:53 | |
were ostrich-like on this matter. | 9:56 | |
Let me illustrate by a test. | 10:00 | |
In the first part of 1961, the Kennedy administration | 10:02 | |
succeeded in persuading the German government | 10:06 | |
to appreciate the currency. | 10:09 | |
Adenauer didn't want to do it, | 10:11 | |
he was still head of state, | 10:13 | |
but Erhard, his Finance Minister, did want to do it. | 10:14 | |
Erhard probably wanted to do it | 10:18 | |
to the tune of 10%. | 10:19 | |
There was a compromise. | 10:21 | |
Germany did it to the tune of 5%. | 10:22 | |
The Dutch guilder also was appreciated by 5% at that time. | 10:25 | |
Those economists who said before this event | 10:30 | |
that the dollar was not overvalued | 10:32 | |
should perhaps have regretted | 10:35 | |
that this event ever took place. | 10:37 | |
I have never met an economist in America | 10:38 | |
who regretted that this event took place. | 10:40 | |
They all agreed we were better off for it. | 10:42 | |
It seems to me | 10:45 | |
although of course the mark, the guilder, and the dollar | 10:47 | |
are only part of the vast | 10:49 | |
multilateral structure of international trade, | 10:52 | |
that this shows that in a sense they did think that | 10:55 | |
the American dollar was overvalued before. | 10:58 | |
Well, in the 1960s, | 11:02 | |
the situation for the dollar | 11:06 | |
seemed to be getting a little bit better. | 11:10 | |
There was overfull employment in Europe, | 11:12 | |
there was open wage inflation in Europe. | 11:16 | |
We are still shocked in this country | 11:17 | |
if there is a General Motors settlement | 11:20 | |
that involves wage increases of 7%, 8%. | 11:23 | |
We will be shocked if the steel settlement | 11:26 | |
turns out to be a 7% or 8% increase in wages. | 11:31 | |
I don't know why we can't continue to be shocked. | 11:34 | |
You'd think after a while | 11:37 | |
we would become accustomed to the effects of life. | 11:39 | |
But in Europe, in Holland, in Germany, | 11:41 | |
you were having during these periods | 11:44 | |
increases in wages | 11:47 | |
of 10%, 12%, 14%. | 11:50 | |
In fact, in Europe, you've had a dual price system. | 11:54 | |
The domestic prices inside of Europe | 11:57 | |
have increased much more | 11:58 | |
than inside the United States. | 12:00 | |
But European industries are very export-minded, | 12:02 | |
partly because of special rebates | 12:08 | |
and special protections, transportation subsidies | 12:10 | |
given by the government to exports, | 12:14 | |
but primarily because | 12:16 | |
the prices and costs have been held down | 12:20 | |
in the export sectors, | 12:22 | |
the export part of the European price level, | 12:24 | |
typical country, I don't care whether it's Sweden | 12:27 | |
or whether it's Italy, | 12:28 | |
shows very considerable stability. | 12:30 | |
In America, we're not export-minded. | 12:33 | |
The body of the dog is the domestic market. | 12:35 | |
Only the tail of the dog is the export market. | 12:39 | |
We do not, if I may say so, | 12:42 | |
have as discriminatory a pricing policy. | 12:44 | |
Our corporate executives keep one eye cocked | 12:48 | |
for the Department of Justice, for the Robinson-Patman Act, | 12:52 | |
for the Clayton Act, for the Sherman Act, | 12:55 | |
for all the different, Miller-Tydings, acts. | 12:58 | |
I realize that there is some relief in Webb-Pomerene Act | 13:02 | |
for monopoly acts abroad, | 13:08 | |
but still, by and large, we do not have the degree | 13:10 | |
of price discrimination which is typical in Europe. | 13:13 | |
No wonder then, if you believe it all | 13:18 | |
in the laws of economics, | 13:20 | |
that as our prices rose relative to theirs, | 13:22 | |
that our share of world trade declined. | 13:25 | |
Nevertheless, from 1959 to 1964, | 13:28 | |
I more or less held my peace. | 13:32 | |
That means in the learned journals of economics, | 13:34 | |
I wrote about the overvaluation. | 13:37 | |
During the time that I was identified as a public mind | 13:40 | |
as an advisor of President Kennedy, | 13:44 | |
even though I was not on the payroll of the government, | 13:47 | |
I did not feel free to | 13:51 | |
enlarge upon my view with respect to the overvaluation. | 13:57 | |
Perhaps that was a mistake, | 14:01 | |
but I was afraid that it would be construed | 14:03 | |
that I was talking for | 14:07 | |
the administration, that I was speaking for | 14:09 | |
the Council of Economic Advisers | 14:11 | |
or even, God forbid, that I was speaking a view | 14:12 | |
which the president actually held. | 14:15 | |
Nonetheless, | 14:18 | |
by 1964, even though the situation had improved, | 14:22 | |
our inflation within the country was less than that abroad, | 14:24 | |
it had not come anywhere near to equilibrium. | 14:29 | |
As I recall it, our current surplus and private accounts, | 14:33 | |
that's merchandise account plus invisibles, | 14:37 | |
had arisen for a quarter or two or three | 14:40 | |
around 1964, '65 to about five or six billion dollars. | 14:44 | |
People who don't believe that the dollar | 14:51 | |
wasn't overvalued, let's say, for example, my colleague | 14:54 | |
Professor Kindleberger would say, my god Samuelson, | 14:57 | |
how much of a surplus do you want? | 15:00 | |
And my answer was, I want a surplus large enough | 15:03 | |
to finance the foreign aid programs | 15:05 | |
which Congress keeps legislating, | 15:09 | |
the offshore military expenditures, | 15:12 | |
troops in Germany and in Japan, elsewhere, | 15:15 | |
which Congress keeps legislating under our Cold War posture, | 15:20 | |
and large enough to offset the torrent | 15:25 | |
of cool money wishing to make foreign investments | 15:28 | |
and branch plants and so forth in western Europe. | 15:32 | |
My only regret is that | 15:37 | |
this desire of our private corporations | 15:39 | |
to invest money abroad is so often confined to | 15:42 | |
Europe and the advanced countries, | 15:45 | |
and it is so rarely in terms of the developing countries. | 15:48 | |
This doesn't mean that an oil company | 15:53 | |
won't put money into an underdeveloped country | 15:54 | |
where the geological signs are good, | 15:57 | |
but you will find it much easier to get private backing | 16:00 | |
for a carbon-black plant in the Netherlands, | 16:04 | |
which is already an industrialized country, | 16:09 | |
than you ever will find it | 16:10 | |
to get motivated, cool money investment in, say, | 16:13 | |
Pakistan in carbon-black. | 16:17 | |
Indeed, when we do invest in those countries, | 16:20 | |
and you can include now Brazil and some others, | 16:22 | |
it's only because of their protectionist legislation, | 16:25 | |
whereby you can't provide the automobiles for Brazil | 16:27 | |
out of Detroit because of their tariffs and quotas. | 16:31 | |
You must have an assembly plant in Brazil | 16:35 | |
even though that may be a rather inefficient way of | 16:38 | |
handling matters. | 16:41 | |
Similarly with respect to refineries, | 16:42 | |
ocean transportation is very cheap | 16:44 | |
and refineries could be in a lot fewer places | 16:46 | |
if it weren't for tariffs. | 16:49 | |
So I didn't think that the five or six billion | 16:53 | |
was nearly enough, and I have to add | 16:55 | |
that part of our export surplus, | 16:57 | |
this remains true today, is phony. | 16:59 | |
It's not a genuine export surplus. | 17:02 | |
It's because of our piecemeal adjustments | 17:05 | |
to an overvalued currency. | 17:07 | |
I have in mind the fact that we tightened foreign aid. | 17:09 | |
I daresay that when we send wheat to India | 17:12 | |
under public law 480, this is a pure outright gift, | 17:15 | |
we get counterpart currency but that's Confederate money | 17:19 | |
really, it's not something that is of any significance. | 17:23 | |
This may appear in our surplus on current accounts, | 17:27 | |
but of course, if we didn't give away that food, | 17:33 | |
it wouldn't be there and it's not truly | 17:35 | |
a net supporter | 17:38 | |
of other than the gift itself. | 17:42 | |
I could go on. | 17:46 | |
We have interest rate equalization tax, | 17:46 | |
so we would have had more portfolio investment abroad | 17:48 | |
if it weren't for that. | 17:50 | |
And we have a mandatory capital controls | 17:52 | |
upon corporations, no signs that the corporations | 17:53 | |
have yet themselves decided to cut | 17:56 | |
down steeply upon their investments. | 18:01 | |
We have mandatory controls on the banks. | 18:03 | |
This year, because of the interest rate change | 18:07 | |
that I'm about to discuss in detail, | 18:10 | |
the banks have not wanted to use all of their quotas, | 18:12 | |
but in other years that quota has been a very binding thing. | 18:16 | |
So you can't even trust the statistics anymore | 18:20 | |
to tell you what the underlying basic balance is | 18:23 | |
since they're already distortions | 18:26 | |
from de facto depreciations. | 18:28 | |
I just repeat again the fact that our military dollar | 18:30 | |
has been devalued to the tune of 50% | 18:33 | |
by the rule which has prevailed now for I guess | 18:37 | |
a decade, | 18:41 | |
that if the Quartermaster Corps | 18:42 | |
can buy something in the United States | 18:45 | |
that costs no more than 50% higher than abroad, | 18:46 | |
it is obliged by law to do so. | 18:48 | |
And I'm sorry to say I have to add | 18:53 | |
that we still do have quotas. | 18:56 | |
We have a voluntary quota in the field of steel. | 18:58 | |
We have had voluntary quotas in the field of textiles, | 19:01 | |
and we have quotas in the agricultural field | 19:05 | |
and we have tariffs | 19:09 | |
so that if we really played the game straight | 19:10 | |
and let the exchange rate be set by supply and demand | 19:16 | |
in truly free markets, the parity of the dollar | 19:19 | |
would be even more overvalued at its present rate | 19:23 | |
in my judgment than shows up from the figures. | 19:26 | |
Well, this is the background. | 19:30 | |
And as a result, there's an accumulation of dollars | 19:32 | |
or dollar obligations abroad | 19:35 | |
which somebody has to hold, some foreigner has to hold. | 19:38 | |
This brings me to 1969, 1970. | 19:43 | |
All the improvement which took place from 1959 to 1964 | 19:47 | |
was thrown out the window | 19:51 | |
by the decision of President Johnson | 19:52 | |
in the summer of 1965 to escalate the Vietnam War. | 19:55 | |
He put upon an already | 19:58 | |
essentially fully employed economy | 20:01 | |
a new resource load and did not ask for financing | 20:04 | |
for that load in the form of a surcharge. | 20:08 | |
The Federal Reserve in 1966 was tight, | 20:11 | |
but in 1977, sorry, 1967 and 1968, | 20:16 | |
it reversed itself. | 20:22 | |
The result has been | 20:25 | |
that the basic balance has been getting worse | 20:26 | |
and I think I am speaking the sober and agreed upon truth | 20:28 | |
when I say that there is no substantial group of experts | 20:32 | |
who, looking ahead this year, next year, year after, | 20:36 | |
next five years, | 20:39 | |
see that the basic balance is much improving. | 20:41 | |
This brings us to the inherited inflation | 20:46 | |
by President Nixon and his new team in 1969, 1970. | 20:48 | |
During that period as you know, | 20:54 | |
the Federal Reserve engineered tight money, | 20:55 | |
money too tight in the opinion of many of its critics, | 20:58 | |
but in any case tight enough to cause | 21:02 | |
interest rates to be very high. | 21:06 | |
The result was | 21:08 | |
that even after you take out of the Euro dollar statistics, | 21:11 | |
that amount which simply represents avoidance | 21:15 | |
of Regulation Q, | 21:17 | |
it's not easy to decide just how much that is | 21:20 | |
but make your most generous allowance for that, | 21:21 | |
it still remains the case that at | 21:24 | |
interest rates of 9%, 10%, 11%, 12% per annum | 21:27 | |
and sometimes go up to 15% per annum, | 21:32 | |
American borrowers, banks primarily, | 21:35 | |
from their branch offices | 21:39 | |
were willing to borrow back the excess dollars | 21:42 | |
which had to be held abroad. | 21:46 | |
And the European private organizations and individuals | 21:47 | |
were happy to hold those dollar obligations | 21:51 | |
at such generous rates. | 21:54 | |
These were rates on overnight money, on one week money. | 21:55 | |
We papered over our deficit, in other words, | 21:59 | |
by our interest rate policy. | 22:02 | |
As I wrote again and again in Newsweek | 22:05 | |
and The Financial Times and Nihon Keizai Shimbun | 22:07 | |
and spoke of on these tapes, | 22:11 | |
what is going to happen when the weather changes | 22:15 | |
and when for domestic reasons we want to have | 22:18 | |
interest rates lower than those rates abroad. | 22:21 | |
What will happen to this low official settlement deficit | 22:25 | |
and huge liquidity deficit? | 22:32 | |
Only one thing could happen, namely it will show itself | 22:36 | |
in the official settlements deficit | 22:41 | |
because Europeans no longer able to hold | 22:42 | |
dollar obligations at these high yields | 22:44 | |
will turn in their unwanted dollars | 22:46 | |
to their own central bank as they have a right to do | 22:48 | |
and then the central bank will be left holding baby, | 22:51 | |
that is, left holding the unwanted dollars. | 22:54 | |
At this point, a policy of benign neglect was urged | 22:58 | |
by conservative economists and by new frontier economists. | 23:01 | |
This was a strange bed of bedfellows. | 23:05 | |
They said do the right thing domestically, | 23:11 | |
and the problem of our deficit | 23:14 | |
is really the problem for the surplus countries. | 23:18 | |
They will continue to take those dollars, | 23:21 | |
and when they don't want to take those dollars, | 23:23 | |
when they want to seal themselves off from our inflation, | 23:24 | |
they have a remedy open to them | 23:27 | |
which is to appreciate their currencies or let them float. | 23:29 | |
I approved of a policy of benign neglect | 23:36 | |
in the sense that malignant preoccupation, | 23:40 | |
if that's the counterpart, is worse than benign neglect, | 23:42 | |
but I had misgivings about it. | 23:45 | |
I had misgivings about it as I repeat it on these tapes | 23:46 | |
because it's not a good thing with your friends | 23:49 | |
to have this war of terror, take it or leave it. | 23:51 | |
After all, if they get desperate enough, | 23:53 | |
they can bring down the whole house of cards | 23:57 | |
by asking for gold. | 23:59 | |
They have a perfect right to ask for official gold. | 24:01 | |
They have just kept from doing so by the knowledge | 24:03 | |
that if Germany or Japan asks for, | 24:05 | |
say, a billion dollars worth of gold, | 24:09 | |
that we will slam down the window on their fingers. | 24:12 | |
Those fingers haven't been thrust through the window | 24:16 | |
asking for that, so that's not a friendly thing to do. | 24:18 | |
The very words benign neglect | 24:23 | |
rubs salt into the wounds of our allies in Europe. | 24:25 | |
But more than that, | 24:32 | |
what concerned me was | 24:34 | |
that you are putting off the day of adjustment | 24:36 | |
and you are building up | 24:38 | |
vested interest in the export industries in Germany | 24:42 | |
as a typical surplus country, | 24:45 | |
in Japan as another potential surplus country, | 24:47 | |
and within this country, you are making it difficult | 24:51 | |
for employers to compete with imports | 24:55 | |
and making it difficult for employers to produce for export. | 24:58 | |
In other words, you're making it difficult to have jobs. | 25:02 | |
Now I know we can make up for those jobs | 25:04 | |
by welfare, by unemployment compensation, | 25:05 | |
by domestic programs, | 25:08 | |
but if later, we're going to go back to equilibrium | 25:10 | |
and those jobs should be in the export industries, | 25:13 | |
it's expensive to have stop and go starting | 25:16 | |
and to drive our workers out of the export industries | 25:18 | |
only to bring them back later. | 25:22 | |
So I have said that equilibrium long deferred | 25:23 | |
is a very bad thing. | 25:27 | |
Given all this background and given the fact that | 25:30 | |
the only direction that the mark could go would be up | 25:34 | |
and that some German professors, | 25:38 | |
by the way these German professors | 25:40 | |
at the five research institutes | 25:42 | |
have generally speaking all been trained | 25:44 | |
in the United States or had training in the United States | 25:47 | |
so they share the view of 95% of American economists | 25:49 | |
which is that there should be flexibility introduced | 25:53 | |
in the Bretton Woods arrangements, | 25:55 | |
and they're wise men, their council of economic advisers | 25:57 | |
has been advising revaluations on Germany | 26:01 | |
for a long, long time. | 26:05 | |
Given this and given the fact that | 26:06 | |
under the rules of Bretton Woods, | 26:10 | |
the interventions are made in terms of the dollars, | 26:11 | |
so that if a Frenchman | 26:14 | |
thinks that the mark is going to go up | 26:16 | |
relative to the dollar, | 26:17 | |
this doesn't show as a surplus of francs | 26:18 | |
held by the German government, | 26:20 | |
it shows by a surplus of dollars. | 26:21 | |
But given all those things, | 26:23 | |
it's no wonder that we had the crisis. | 26:26 | |
I was quoted fairly widely | 26:31 | |
as saying this crisis was a good thing. | 26:33 | |
I know that some of my friends may have thought that | 26:36 | |
here I was trying to pretend to be an establishment figure, | 26:38 | |
trying to throw oil on troubled waters, | 26:42 | |
but from the diagnosis I have given you, | 26:46 | |
you can see that I was genuinely happy last Monday morning | 26:48 | |
when I learned that the German government | 26:52 | |
had decided to let the mark float | 26:55 | |
and not to do what I feared, | 26:58 | |
which was to introduce exchange controls. | 27:00 | |
But I must be careful. | 27:02 | |
Some exchange controls are, I understand, | 27:03 | |
about to be introduced, | 27:06 | |
and one of the things I feared is | 27:07 | |
probably going to happen. | 27:09 | |
Now I could wish that there was a similar crisis | 27:13 | |
with respect to the yen | 27:15 | |
because I think the Japanese currency | 27:16 | |
should also be upward revalued. | 27:19 | |
The German mark has been revalued three times. | 27:21 | |
I've just made the calculation. | 27:24 | |
It's gone up now by 18% in these three different times. | 27:25 | |
The problem is not simply the dollar versus the mark. | 27:29 | |
It's the dollar versus a number of other currencies. | 27:31 | |
And an alternative to what took place | 27:34 | |
might have been to devalue the dollar | 27:37 | |
relative to official gold, | 27:39 | |
not, I hesitate, I hurry to say, in the remaining time, | 27:41 | |
not to do anything about the gold that South Africa | 27:45 | |
can sell in the free market or the Russians, | 27:49 | |
those arguments are now by the board. | 27:51 | |
Well, it's a good thing, but it's not yet over, | 27:54 | |
it's not yet behind us. | 27:57 | |
And there's one bad taste. | 27:58 | |
I have talked to numerous foreign journalists, | 28:00 | |
and the United States has incurred a great deal of ill will | 28:03 | |
during this crisis by what they consider to be | 28:08 | |
our cavalier, one-sided treatment, take it or leave it. | 28:11 | |
And I can't say that I give three cheers | 28:16 | |
for that's happening. | 28:19 | |
But as far as the economics is concerned, | 28:21 | |
it's a move in the right direction. | 28:23 | |
I can only wish that they had persuaded | 28:24 | |
the other common market countries | 28:26 | |
aside from the Dutch to also let their currencies float. | 28:28 | |
Whether after floating for a while, | 28:33 | |
they're stabilized de facto is in my judgment | 28:35 | |
not so important an issue | 28:39 | |
as that the dollar be lowered in its parity | 28:40 | |
relative to these other currencies. | 28:44 | |
- | If you have any comments or questions | 28:47 |
for Professor Samuelson, address them to | 28:49 | |
Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 28:51 | |
166 East Superior Street, Chicago, Illinois, 60611. | 28:54 |
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