Tape 60 - Comments on some 1971 economic forecasts
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| - | Welcome, as MIT Professor Paul Samuelson discusses | 0:02 |
| the current economic scene. | 0:05 | |
| This bi-weekly series is produced | 0:07 | |
| by Instructional Dynamics, Incorporated, | 0:08 | |
| and was recorded October 1st, 1970. | 0:10 | |
| - | I think today would be a very good time for me to comment | 0:13 |
| on a number of speeches that have been made recently | 0:18 | |
| by various economic experts and forecasters. | 0:21 | |
| And to share with you some of the forecasts | 0:26 | |
| that are beginning to come over my desk | 0:31 | |
| about where we're going between now | 0:34 | |
| and say, the middle of 1971. | 0:38 | |
| The first speech that I want to call to your attention | 0:44 | |
| was by Dr. Beryl Sprinkel, | 0:51 | |
| who is a senior vice president and economist | 0:54 | |
| of the Harris Trust and Savings Bank in Chicago. | 0:57 | |
| He's a very distinguished monetarist. | 1:00 | |
| And just a few days ago on September 24th, | 1:03 | |
| he appeared at a conference | 1:09 | |
| of the National Industrial Conference Board in New York | 1:12 | |
| on business in 1971. | 1:15 | |
| You'll be very happy to learn that Dr. Sprinkel | 1:19 | |
| has a very optimistic forecast of the year ahead. | 1:24 | |
| He thinks that we | 1:31 | |
| dispensed about the right medicine | 1:37 | |
| for the slowing down of inflation, | 1:39 | |
| but that period is behind us, | 1:43 | |
| and that we will now reap the fruits of that investment. | 1:45 | |
| He thinks that monetary growth | 1:52 | |
| of about 5-6% since March is about right, | 1:55 | |
| and he thinks that that augers very well | 2:02 | |
| into the end of 1971. | 2:05 | |
| It's not clear to me whether he should | 2:11 | |
| be a little bit disturbed that perhaps in recent months | 2:14 | |
| the Federal Reserve is going a little bit beyond | 2:19 | |
| the numbers that he has stated. | 2:21 | |
| I think that I've seen speeches by some monetarists | 2:24 | |
| who are beginning to be worried, | 2:27 | |
| but Dr. Sprinkel has confidence | 2:30 | |
| that the world has learned its lesson | 2:33 | |
| and will follow a moderate of program like 5-6%. | 2:36 | |
| Now, concretely what does that mean? | 2:40 | |
| It means that our real output will grow | 2:43 | |
| by something better than 4% | 2:49 | |
| and | 2:53 | |
| this will be accompanied, | 2:56 | |
| not by a resumption of inflation, | 2:58 | |
| but by a continued improvement on the inflationary front. | 3:02 | |
| So, inflation will be at a rate below, | 3:09 | |
| then current rate of below 3% a year about a year from now. | 3:16 | |
| I think that beyond that, but I can't quote | 3:21 | |
| from the written text that I have here, | 3:25 | |
| that would be from what was said at the conference | 3:27 | |
| that Dr. Sprinkel may be even more optimistic | 3:31 | |
| about the future rate of price inflation. | 3:35 | |
| That's a optimistic forecast. | 3:41 | |
| Reinforcing it is a communication | 3:47 | |
| from the National City Bank of Cleveland. | 3:51 | |
| James Dawson is vice president and economist there. | 3:54 | |
| And he publishes at intervals | 3:58 | |
| an attractive little brochure on various economic topics | 4:00 | |
| that he thinks his readers will be interested in. | 4:06 | |
| And the one that I'm now referring to | 4:10 | |
| is dated September 25th, | 4:13 | |
| about the same time as Sprinkel's speech about a week ago. | 4:15 | |
| And it's called Inflation Scoreboard. | 4:19 | |
| I'll simply read you the last paragraph. | 4:23 | |
| "The game plan", | 4:28 | |
| this is the administration Federal Reserve game plan, | 4:30 | |
| "calls for business recovery, | 4:34 | |
| "but at a speed which will retain some slack in the economy. | 4:37 | |
| "Current success with the program brightens prospects | 4:41 | |
| "for eventually holding pay hikes to say 5%, | 4:46 | |
| "with normal labor productivity improvements of 3%, | 4:51 | |
| "this would point to unit labor costs, | 4:54 | |
| "and presumably prices, rising 2%. | 4:57 | |
| "Not perfect, but tolerable." | 5:00 | |
| I think that's an understatement. | 5:03 | |
| That isn't perfect, but it would certainly | 5:06 | |
| be a very juicy and delightful outcome if it were to happen. | 5:07 | |
| Let me take, change gears | 5:15 | |
| and take a look at a typical GNP forecast. | 5:17 | |
| This particular one was made at the end of August. | 5:24 | |
| It's by the University of Michigan. | 5:28 | |
| It's part of their economic outlook. | 5:32 | |
| It's circulated to members | 5:35 | |
| of the Economic Outlook Conference. | 5:37 | |
| And as you, as many of you will know, | 5:40 | |
| the University of Michigan, earlier under Dan Suits, | 5:44 | |
| but now primarily under Saul Hymans and Harold Shapiro | 5:48 | |
| has a computer GNP forecast model. | 5:53 | |
| It's had some pretty good results in the past | 5:59 | |
| when it was making annual forecasts, | 6:01 | |
| now it's on a quarterly basis. | 6:03 | |
| And let's see what these forecasters have to say. | 6:05 | |
| First, let's review their credentials. | 6:09 | |
| They have been pretty accurate | 6:13 | |
| in the last couple of quarters. | 6:16 | |
| They first review what it was that they told their readers | 6:18 | |
| would happen in the first and second quarter. | 6:23 | |
| And that was pretty much what actually did happen. | 6:27 | |
| The Department of Commerce has revised all the GNP data. | 6:33 | |
| So they have re-run their computer and regressions | 6:36 | |
| on the basis of revised data. | 6:39 | |
| And I think that they find | 6:41 | |
| that far from there being biases in their model, | 6:42 | |
| relatively few adjustments had to be made. | 6:47 | |
| And maybe it's even more accurate with the revised data | 6:49 | |
| than it was with the original data. | 6:53 | |
| Of course, for their kind of forecasting | 6:56 | |
| you have to make some assumptions to begin with. | 6:58 | |
| And they assume that defense purchases | 7:01 | |
| will continue to decline. | 7:03 | |
| That seems a reasonable assumption. | 7:04 | |
| I would suppose that a little after subscribers | 7:07 | |
| receive this tape and listen to it, | 7:13 | |
| that maybe there'll be some pre-election good news | 7:15 | |
| from Vietnam announced by the President. | 7:19 | |
| There've been hints that troop withdrawals | 7:22 | |
| will be announced sometime in the middle of October. | 7:25 | |
| So, defense purchases will continue to decline. | 7:31 | |
| The non-defense federal purchases | 7:36 | |
| are projected to rise steadily in the coming four quarters. | 7:39 | |
| This is really a forecast from the middle of 1970 | 7:43 | |
| to the middle of 1971. | 7:48 | |
| So it's for four quarters | 7:49 | |
| beginning with the third quarter of 1970. | 7:50 | |
| They expect monetary conditions | 7:55 | |
| to continue the recent trend toward a mild easing, | 7:57 | |
| particularly with respect to conditions | 8:00 | |
| in the housing market. | 8:02 | |
| Concretely, this means that short-term interest rates | 8:04 | |
| are projected to decline by about one percentage point. | 8:06 | |
| I think it's 100 basis points, | 8:09 | |
| over the coming four quarters. | 8:11 | |
| And long-term rates are forecasted | 8:12 | |
| to hold very steady over the same period. | 8:14 | |
| This will establish a short long differential, | 8:17 | |
| which is quite favorable to the flow of funds | 8:20 | |
| into the mortgage market I've just been reading. | 8:22 | |
| My guess is that what they forecast | 8:24 | |
| for the whole year following August, | 8:28 | |
| probably a good deal of that | 8:30 | |
| has already occurred since they made their forecast. | 8:32 | |
| They're assuming that state and local governments | 8:37 | |
| will come into the markets strong for delayed financing | 8:40 | |
| to pay for projects which they've had to put off | 8:43 | |
| because they couldn't slow funds in the time of high money. | 8:48 | |
| Expensive money. | 8:54 | |
| Now, every near-term forecaster | 8:57 | |
| has to make some assumption about the strike, | 8:59 | |
| and they were making a forecast | 9:03 | |
| before it was known definitely that there would be | 9:05 | |
| a General Motors strike. | 9:08 | |
| They made two forecasts, with the strike | 9:10 | |
| and without the strike, | 9:13 | |
| and the difference is not all that large. | 9:15 | |
| I'll comment a little bit more in a moment about | 9:19 | |
| what the effect of the strike itself can be expected to be. | 9:23 | |
| But in any case, | 9:29 | |
| the forecast for the year | 9:32 | |
| is as follows. | 9:38 | |
| Auto expenditures are going to go down in real terms a bit. | 9:44 | |
| That's because there's a pretty big stock of autos | 9:51 | |
| in the hands of consumers. | 9:55 | |
| Housing starts are going to increase. | 9:58 | |
| Reach a level of 1.6 million private housing starts. | 9:59 | |
| That's the annual rate by the second quarter of next year. | 10:04 | |
| The unemployment rate unfortunately is expected, | 10:08 | |
| as by so many of the analysts, continue to rise. | 10:13 | |
| But it's not gonna reach more than 5 2/3%. | 10:16 | |
| It's about 5.1% at the last August number. | 10:21 | |
| And I think probably September number's gonna be worse. | 10:26 | |
| But that isn't such a lot more than the present. | 10:29 | |
| That's what it's gonna reach | 10:34 | |
| by the second quarter of next year. | 10:35 | |
| How about the overall figures? | 10:41 | |
| They figure real output in the four quarters, | 10:44 | |
| from the middle of 1970 to the middle of 1971, | 10:47 | |
| to increase by about 2 1/4%. | 10:50 | |
| Less than that in the last half of this year | 10:55 | |
| and more than that in the first part, | 10:57 | |
| first half of next year. | 11:03 | |
| The May GNP is going to go up in nominal terms | 11:06 | |
| by about 5 1/3%. | 11:10 | |
| And the difference is a 3% increase | 11:12 | |
| in the overall price level as measured by the GNP deflator. | 11:16 | |
| I think that's a also fairly optimistic outlook. | 11:23 | |
| It's not as good as a 2% | 11:28 | |
| of the National City Bank of Cleveland, | 11:29 | |
| but it's in the same ballpark with the Sprinkel figures. | 11:33 | |
| In fact, it's probably more optimistic than the figures | 11:41 | |
| that Sprinkel has written down in the summary of his speech, | 11:44 | |
| because he's saying that the rate of increase of prices | 11:47 | |
| by the end of 1971 will be running at about a 3% rate. | 11:51 | |
| And they're really saying that by the turn of this year, | 11:55 | |
| it'll be running at that. | 11:59 | |
| Maybe more last half of this year, | 12:01 | |
| and maybe better the first half of next year. | 12:03 | |
| They, these Michigan forecasters, | 12:10 | |
| have very optimistic view with respect to productivity. | 12:13 | |
| They're assuming a 4% increase. | 12:17 | |
| That we have something overdue coming us | 12:20 | |
| because productivity until the second quarter | 12:21 | |
| was very disappointing. | 12:25 | |
| To be understood of course, in terms of the retardation, | 12:26 | |
| but now that we're having less retardation, | 12:29 | |
| they expected a strong bounce-back in productivity. | 12:32 | |
| And they also have a fairly optimistic assumption | 12:37 | |
| about wage push, because they have compensation per man hour | 12:39 | |
| and that includes I presume fringe benefits and whatnot. | 12:44 | |
| Increasing only by 5.1%, which is a marked reduction | 12:49 | |
| from the previous four quarters. | 12:55 | |
| That would be from the middle of 1970, | 12:57 | |
| working back to the middle of 1969, | 12:59 | |
| when it was almost 7%, 6.8%. | 13:01 | |
| So, that's a very substantial improvement. | 13:04 | |
| Those represent quite good news. | 13:11 | |
| I will reserve judgment for a moment before I comment on | 13:15 | |
| what I think about these particular forecasts. | 13:20 | |
| I now am looking before me at a typical GNP forecast of a, | 13:23 | |
| it's a mixture between a computer model | 13:29 | |
| like that of University of Michigan, | 13:33 | |
| and the judgemental model | 13:36 | |
| like that that most large banks or large corporations do. | 13:39 | |
| This forecast expects that money GNP | 13:45 | |
| in the third quarter will show a 13 billion increase | 13:52 | |
| in money terms. | 13:59 | |
| In real terms there will be a couple billion increase. | 14:02 | |
| Couple billion increase in real terms, | 14:09 | |
| in a quarter, if you multiply it by four gives us | 14:12 | |
| about an eight billion increase. | 14:15 | |
| That's not much more than a 1% annual rate of increase. | 14:17 | |
| But in real terms, | 14:25 | |
| the fourth quarter shows a six billion increase. | 14:26 | |
| Three times as large. | 14:32 | |
| And then a six and a half billion increase. | 14:36 | |
| Then a only a four billion. | 14:42 | |
| So, at the turn of the year, | 14:46 | |
| we're really going quite a quip | 14:47 | |
| because six billion per quarter times four is 24 billion. | 14:49 | |
| That's really a 3% increase in real terms. | 14:53 | |
| Now, what's interesting about this particular forecast | 15:00 | |
| is that perhaps it has something rather optimistic | 15:06 | |
| with respect to profits. | 15:10 | |
| Corporate profits after taxes, | 15:12 | |
| which is I suppose what would interest say, | 15:14 | |
| a stock market investor was about $44.5 billion. | 15:17 | |
| In the first quarter this year. | 15:23 | |
| It was down a bit, but only a bit | 15:25 | |
| to 44 1/3 billion in the second quarter. | 15:29 | |
| And that's the low point according to this forecast. | 15:35 | |
| It'll be at 45 billion in the third quarter | 15:38 | |
| when those numbers come out. | 15:42 | |
| Of course, the third quarter as I speak is behind us. | 15:45 | |
| But the numbers have not yet come out. | 15:48 | |
| And won't for a little while. | 15:54 | |
| Then it goes up to 46.2 billion. | 15:57 | |
| Then 47.5 billion, and you're actually up to 48 billion | 16:01 | |
| in corporate profits by the second quarter of next year. | 16:07 | |
| Certainly if things work out this way, | 16:11 | |
| that's kind of good news for the stock market. | 16:16 | |
| Yes, but there's other good news here. | 16:20 | |
| According to this forecast, our net exports are improving | 16:23 | |
| from three and a half to four billion, | 16:32 | |
| to almost 5 billion in third quarter, | 16:34 | |
| to better than five and a half billion in the fourth quarter | 16:37 | |
| to six billion in the first quarter of next year, | 16:41 | |
| and to six point two billion in the second quarter. | 16:44 | |
| That would be very good news | 16:47 | |
| for our basic balance of payments | 16:49 | |
| if it actually came to pass. | 16:53 | |
| As usual, as in most of these models | 16:56 | |
| the unemployment rate is continuing to inch upward. | 17:00 | |
| It will be 5.1% average in the third quarter. | 17:08 | |
| It will be 5.3% in the fourth quarter. | 17:15 | |
| 5.4% at the end of the create of the forecast will be 5.6%. | 17:18 | |
| That of course, is bad news, | 17:25 | |
| but it's not the 6 and 7% estimates | 17:28 | |
| which many people have and had been making. | 17:32 | |
| Now, what's my particular view of these forecasts? | 17:37 | |
| I suppose I should register the feeling | 17:48 | |
| that we're not gonna be so lucky on the inflation front. | 17:52 | |
| I expect that we will have improvement | 17:57 | |
| in the rate of inflation, | 17:59 | |
| but I don't expect an improvement | 18:00 | |
| comparable to that of Dr. Sprinkel or of James Dawson. | 18:02 | |
| Now, I realize that there are ways of reading | 18:12 | |
| the pattern of previous experience. | 18:15 | |
| Regression equations and so forth. | 18:17 | |
| Which will get you those low numbers. | 18:19 | |
| However, such forecasts have tended | 18:24 | |
| in the last many quarters to be overly optimistic. | 18:28 | |
| Having been overly optimistic maybe finally, | 18:35 | |
| they've got a good surprise coming to them, the forecasters. | 18:40 | |
| But my way of reasoning is the opposite of that. | 18:44 | |
| This is course, | 18:50 | |
| this line of reasoning I'm giving you is very tentative. | 18:51 | |
| I'm showing you how my thinking goes. | 18:53 | |
| I'm assuming that there's something in the situation | 18:56 | |
| which the past regression equations do not capture. | 19:00 | |
| A resistance towards the lowering of prices. | 19:04 | |
| And I'm assuming that that something, | 19:08 | |
| that unidentified something will persist. | 19:10 | |
| And so, I'm going along with the notion | 19:15 | |
| that we'll do well if the general real output increases | 19:20 | |
| that say, the Michigan people expect, | 19:27 | |
| of 2 1/4% increase over the next four quarters | 19:30 | |
| from middle of this year, materialize. | 19:35 | |
| I think we'll do well to get down below 4%, say 3 1/2 to 4%. | 19:38 | |
| And that seems to me | 19:49 | |
| that will intensify the problems for public policy. | 19:50 | |
| I said I was gonna comment | 19:56 | |
| on a number of different speeches. | 19:58 | |
| I have done that now, in connection with certain forecasts. | 20:00 | |
| I would like to call your attention | 20:06 | |
| to a very interesting talk that I was able to hear | 20:08 | |
| in New York just last week at a program put on | 20:12 | |
| by the National Bureau of Economic Research. | 20:18 | |
| The National Bureau of Economic Research | 20:20 | |
| is celebrating its 50th year. | 20:21 | |
| And as part of that birthday celebration, | 20:23 | |
| several different conferences | 20:27 | |
| are being held in different parts of the country. | 20:28 | |
| Well, at this first 50th birthday party, | 20:31 | |
| there was a morning session. | 20:36 | |
| And on that program, | 20:38 | |
| the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, | 20:41 | |
| Geoffrey Moore, who was formerly vice president | 20:43 | |
| of the National Bureau and director of research spoke. | 20:47 | |
| The interesting paper on trying to date the peak | 20:50 | |
| in a reference cycle of the rate of inflation. | 20:58 | |
| The National Bureau has long tried | 21:02 | |
| to measure general business activity | 21:06 | |
| and to find definite peaks | 21:09 | |
| when an expansion turns into a contraction. | 21:13 | |
| And date those peaks. | 21:15 | |
| And do same thing for troughs. | 21:17 | |
| Well, Moore's objective here is a more limited one. | 21:20 | |
| He just wants to concentrate on the rate of price increase. | 21:23 | |
| And then smooth the data, and look at diffusion indexes | 21:28 | |
| and many different kinds of price indicators | 21:32 | |
| and to try to decide | 21:34 | |
| when did the rate of inflation peak out? | 21:36 | |
| And it's his tentative judgment, | 21:39 | |
| he's done this for past years | 21:42 | |
| in order to calibrate the method, | 21:45 | |
| and also to get a historical perspective. | 21:47 | |
| It's his tentative judgment | 21:49 | |
| that in about February this year, early this year, | 21:51 | |
| the rate of price increase peaked out. | 21:55 | |
| That seems very reasonable to me. | 21:59 | |
| Moore is a very cautious scholar, | 22:04 | |
| and he said that we haven't had enough time | 22:05 | |
| since that period to be sure of this. | 22:08 | |
| And then I may say that I've known some other people | 22:14 | |
| who have attempted to do this, and who tried last year. | 22:18 | |
| And one worthy scholar using very good methods | 22:23 | |
| told me at one time last year, | 22:28 | |
| he thought the peak was in the middle of last year. | 22:29 | |
| And that turned out to be a false peak. | 22:32 | |
| But this seems very reasonable. | 22:35 | |
| We've had an actual decline | 22:37 | |
| in various volatile prices of staples. | 22:39 | |
| We've had a almost stability in the wholesale price index. | 22:43 | |
| A drop from earlier higher numbers. | 22:50 | |
| Now, it's true, | 22:52 | |
| you can't tell much from month-to-month figures. | 22:53 | |
| One month ago, the wholesale price index went down by 0.4%. | 22:56 | |
| And Dr. George Shultz, | 23:03 | |
| the head of the new Bureau of the Budget and Management | 23:06 | |
| said he'll give a dramatic instance | 23:12 | |
| of the change in the inflationary climate. | 23:15 | |
| Well and good. | 23:19 | |
| Unfortunately, just a couple days ago, | 23:20 | |
| we've had one more month's announcement. | 23:24 | |
| And the wholesale price index this time went up by 0.4%, | 23:26 | |
| washing out the decline of 0.4% of the previous month. | 23:30 | |
| Naturally, Dr. Shultz has not taken this occasion | 23:36 | |
| to comment upon the numbers, | 23:40 | |
| and I don't criticize him for that. | 23:42 | |
| Moreover, I'd like to point out | 23:45 | |
| that the wholesale prices for two months have been stable. | 23:47 | |
| If a plus four tenths washes out a minus four tenths, | 23:50 | |
| that's not the worst picture in the world. | 23:56 | |
| Another loss. | 23:59 | |
| There's the possibility that the plus four tenths | 24:00 | |
| will be followed by some continued increases | 24:02 | |
| in wholesale prices. | 24:05 | |
| Particularly since one of the areas | 24:07 | |
| in which we got the greatest relief recently, | 24:09 | |
| namely the moderating food price situation, | 24:13 | |
| seems to have gone in reverse recently. | 24:18 | |
| No doubt, we've all heard of the corn blight. | 24:22 | |
| That is a new fungus, could be very real thing. | 24:25 | |
| It has had effects in soy beans and in wheat. | 24:30 | |
| So, we're not out of the woods yet, | 24:35 | |
| as far as inflation is concerned. | 24:38 | |
| But it does look as if we have turned the corner. | 24:40 | |
| The big open question is, | 24:46 | |
| how much improvement can we look forward to? | 24:50 | |
| And here, | 24:54 | |
| I think that one must be prepared for the possibility | 24:56 | |
| that productivity, which has bounced back, | 25:00 | |
| will not do as well | 25:04 | |
| as some of the forecasters that I've commented on | 25:05 | |
| have assumed. | 25:07 | |
| This can be said. | 25:09 | |
| The present turn, | 25:12 | |
| if we have made the turn, | 25:16 | |
| is not a V-bottom. | 25:18 | |
| We are definitely meandering. | 25:21 | |
| This suggests that I comment upon two other papers | 25:23 | |
| given at that session of the National Bureau. | 25:27 | |
| The first of those papers was by Professor Sol Fabricant. | 25:32 | |
| Very distinguished National Bureau scholar. | 25:39 | |
| And he is canvassing the question of | 25:41 | |
| whether we've been in a recession at all. | 25:43 | |
| And there was a good deal | 25:47 | |
| of nice academic discussion on this problem. | 25:48 | |
| I don't particularly want to discuss it | 25:53 | |
| because as Professor Otto Eckstein of Harvard said, | 25:55 | |
| who was at the conference, | 25:59 | |
| there's absolutely no difference in opinion | 26:01 | |
| on part of anybody present on the facts of the situation. | 26:03 | |
| The only problem is how those facts | 26:06 | |
| fit into historic National Bureau definitions. | 26:10 | |
| And there was much quoting of | 26:13 | |
| what Arthur Burns said in 1946, | 26:15 | |
| and what Wesley Mitchell said in 1913. | 26:17 | |
| Nevertheless, I would like to call your attention | 26:21 | |
| to a third speech on that session, | 26:23 | |
| which was by Dr. Ilse Mintz a distinguished scholar. | 26:26 | |
| She is starting on a project | 26:33 | |
| which I have hoped the National Bureau would do | 26:35 | |
| and I'm sure they'll do more of in the future, | 26:38 | |
| which is to redefine the business cycle. | 26:40 | |
| Use the old definition of the business cycle, | 26:41 | |
| you would never in Japan have a business cycle. | 26:44 | |
| Because they speak of a recession | 26:46 | |
| when their rate of growth drops to 4.5% in real terms. | 26:48 | |
| We would consider that exhilaration. | 26:52 | |
| So, | 26:55 | |
| Dr. Mintz did the following, | 26:57 | |
| she defines a recession | 27:01 | |
| when you're not growing as fast as you have been growing, | 27:03 | |
| and as fast as you could grow, | 27:07 | |
| and as fast as trend. | 27:08 | |
| And you are in expansion | 27:10 | |
| when you're growing faster than a trend. | 27:12 | |
| And this gives a complete, well not a completely new dating, | 27:14 | |
| but a new dating of the business cycle. | 27:18 | |
| Now, by this test, there isn't any question | 27:20 | |
| that we have recently been in a growth recession. | 27:23 | |
| Terms of the new concept of the growth cycle | 27:28 | |
| we have definitely been in a recession. | 27:30 | |
| And that leaves us with a very important problem, | 27:33 | |
| which we'll be discussing a lot in future tapes | 27:36 | |
| of where do we go from here? | 27:40 | |
| How strong will be the recovery from this point on? | 27:41 | |
| - | You've been listening to MIT Professor Paul Samuelson. | 27:45 |
| If you have any comments or questions, | 27:48 | |
| address them to Instructional Dynamics, Incorporated | 27:50 | |
| 166 East Superior Street | 27:53 | |
| Chicago, Illinois 60611. | 27:55 |
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