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- | Instructional Dynamics welcomes you to its bi-weekly | 0:02 |
analytic commentary of current economic developments | 0:04 | |
by one of the nation's leading Economists, | 0:07 | |
Paul Samuelson of MIT. | 0:09 | |
This is the week of October 27th Dr. Samuelson, | 0:12 | |
and on our last tape you discussed the | 0:15 | |
international financial situation. | 0:17 | |
Since that tape we have received some preliminary reports | 0:19 | |
on the third quarter GNP. | 0:22 | |
Wouldn't this be a good time to comment on that? | 0:25 | |
- | These preliminary reports suggest just about what | 0:29 |
you and I have been expecting. | 0:33 | |
You remember we spoke earlier of the probable increase | 0:35 | |
in money GNP in the third quarter as being | 0:41 | |
something like $16 billion. | 0:45 | |
That would be the same, very much the same as the | 0:47 | |
16 billion in the second quarter and | 0:50 | |
the 16 billion increase in the first quarter. | 0:53 | |
But then as time went on, we go wind of the fact | 0:55 | |
that inventory accumulation seemed to be | 1:00 | |
a bit stronger in July and that suggested that | 1:03 | |
although final demand would grow in line | 1:08 | |
with those previous expectations, | 1:13 | |
this time we would be getting some extra | 1:15 | |
inventory accumulation and that does seem to have happened. | 1:18 | |
So our estimate that the 16 billion would be moved up | 1:21 | |
toward 17 or 18 billion, seems to have been | 1:25 | |
pretty much on the nose, because | 1:28 | |
I believe the preliminary report is $17 1/2 billion. | 1:30 | |
You might think that this gives President Nixon, | 1:36 | |
as he goes before the American people to explain | 1:40 | |
how well his program of gradualism is working, | 1:43 | |
a bit of a problem because 17 1/2 billion | 1:46 | |
does represent a bit of a quickening | 1:51 | |
in the rate of growth over the earlier figures. | 1:53 | |
Also the price component, the GNP deflator | 1:57 | |
involved in these third quarter figures | 2:02 | |
are about the highest that we have ever seen, | 2:04 | |
primarily because the government pay increase. | 2:07 | |
Nevertheless, the President really had an easier task | 2:12 | |
since the pattern of concordance, | 2:16 | |
which had been so much lacking earlier in the year, | 2:21 | |
has been developing all the more. | 2:25 | |
Of course, the biggest news of recent times | 2:28 | |
in the economic sphere, was the leap in unemployment | 2:31 | |
by 1/2 of 1%, from 3 1/2% as recorded in August, | 2:37 | |
to 4% as recorded early in September. | 2:44 | |
This sent a chill, a thrill, maybe even a hot flash | 2:49 | |
through the financial community. | 2:57 | |
As a matter of fact, | 3:00 | |
the stock market took this as a good sign. | 3:02 | |
And the market having tested again and again | 3:07 | |
that 800 resistance level dipped down toward | 3:11 | |
the 800 recently and then leaped upward, | 3:18 | |
fishing for good news and thinking | 3:23 | |
that it had found some good news. | 3:26 | |
So many heart is happy in Wall Street | 3:28 | |
and not simply because the Mets won, | 3:31 | |
because some 19 million share days | 3:33 | |
have again happened and those must be | 3:38 | |
contributing something towards the swollen overhead | 3:41 | |
of the brokerage community on the street. | 3:44 | |
Our primary interest of course, | 3:51 | |
is what's going to happen in the quarters ahead. | 3:53 | |
So let's look at the third quarter preliminary results. | 3:56 | |
Let's look at all the other data that have been coming in | 4:01 | |
and try to draw the best picture possible | 4:04 | |
from them about the future. | 4:08 | |
Certainly, this looks to be the last $17 1/2 billion | 4:11 | |
increase in money terms, that we're going to see | 4:18 | |
for a number of quarters. | 4:22 | |
The fourth quarter should be definitely | 4:25 | |
down in this rate of growth, | 4:27 | |
in comparison with the third quarter figure. | 4:29 | |
The Wharton School model, which has results going | 4:33 | |
into 1971 and which recently gave a new report, | 4:38 | |
shows, if my memory is correct, | 4:44 | |
essentially zero real growth in the GNP | 4:47 | |
for the fourth quarter | 4:51 | |
and even a little bit of negative growth. | 4:52 | |
I believe I heard a considerable authority, | 4:55 | |
namely Professor Otto Eckstein of Harvard University, | 4:59 | |
who now has a very large and flourishing consulting service, | 5:04 | |
but who formerly was on the Kennedy and Johnson | 5:11 | |
Council of Economic Advisers, | 5:16 | |
I believe that I heard somewhere, | 5:18 | |
I hope I'm not revealing any proprietary secrets, | 5:20 | |
that he has a model which shows essentially no | 5:24 | |
real growth in the fourth quarter. | 5:29 | |
I ought to say that there is no great difference, I think, | 5:35 | |
between monetarists and non-monetarists in this matter. | 5:40 | |
One of the foremost monetarists was good enough | 5:47 | |
to give me a forecast for the third quarter | 5:51 | |
back early in June and I jotted it down, | 5:54 | |
and I don't remember whether I reported to you his results. | 5:59 | |
I don't think I will identify him because it | 6:04 | |
isn't a particularly good or accurate forecast, | 6:07 | |
but he estimated for me that the third quarter | 6:13 | |
would show an 11 to $12 billion dollar increase. | 6:17 | |
He did this back before the second quarter was over, | 6:21 | |
and since he's gun shy about making unconditional forecasts, | 6:28 | |
he really refuses to play that game, | 6:33 | |
he said, "I will make this forecast for you conditional upon | 6:37 | |
the Federal Reserve engineering a 3% increase | 6:43 | |
in the money supply", let's say in the M1 | 6:51 | |
definition of the money supply. | 6:55 | |
Well, 11 to 12 billion is a very good deal | 6:58 | |
less than 17 1/2 billion. | 7:02 | |
I would say that, for a June to third quarter forecast, | 7:06 | |
this would have to be rated as one of the | 7:12 | |
rather poor forecasts. | 7:15 | |
Moreover, if I take him literally, I should | 7:18 | |
reduce his forecast because if I had forced out of him | 7:23 | |
an estimate of what the GNP increase would be | 7:28 | |
if the Federal Reserve did what we now know it did do, | 7:32 | |
which was to keep the money supply growing at | 7:36 | |
probably no more than a 2% annual rate, | 7:40 | |
then he would have shaded his 11 to 12 billion down, | 7:44 | |
I suppose depending on his proprietary formula, | 7:47 | |
to 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 billion. | 7:52 | |
However, his day will come probably, | 7:58 | |
as happens to all forecasters if they | 8:03 | |
will only wait long enough and generally speaking | 8:06 | |
the GNP model builders are looking for | 8:10 | |
a continuation of the retardation. | 8:16 | |
We are now getting the first political testing | 8:21 | |
of the determination or the tolerance of the American people | 8:24 | |
to pursue the present line of therapy. | 8:29 | |
The new team has no secret weapons | 8:34 | |
for controlling inflation. | 8:37 | |
They can use fiscal policy. | 8:39 | |
And there has been, of course, a recommendation | 8:43 | |
that the surtax be continued, | 8:47 | |
continued at a reduced rate for the first half of next year. | 8:49 | |
There's been a warning from the President | 8:54 | |
and from his administration economists, | 8:57 | |
that if tax reform degenerated into tax giveaway | 9:01 | |
and that there is too great a loss in revenue | 9:05 | |
so that inflation threatens, | 9:07 | |
then the President may even veto such a legislation. | 9:09 | |
So fiscal policy is definitely one of the tools | 9:14 | |
being advocated by the present | 9:17 | |
quasi fine tuners in Washington. | 9:21 | |
Same thing is true on the expenditure side of fiscal policy. | 9:25 | |
The President has expressed his perturbation | 9:29 | |
that Congress should be contemplating further | 9:32 | |
increases in government salaries | 9:35 | |
and has explicitly or implicitly threatened | 9:38 | |
a possible veto on that score. | 9:43 | |
Certainly there is a very tight rein being kept upon | 9:46 | |
those expenditures which are under federal control. | 9:50 | |
One can wish that the SST and some other decisions | 9:54 | |
that were made had been made with that same | 9:57 | |
tenderness and respect for tight fiscal policy. | 10:04 | |
On the monetary side, of course, | 10:10 | |
the Federal Reserve has been continuing its policy | 10:12 | |
of engineering a very slow rate of growth | 10:17 | |
of the money supply. | 10:19 | |
Too slow a rate of growth of the money supply | 10:21 | |
from the standpoint of those monetarists | 10:23 | |
who are also gradualist. | 10:25 | |
Now there was a great deal of skepticism | 10:30 | |
as to whether these tried and true methods | 10:33 | |
really do work and the fact that the price index | 10:37 | |
continued to mount, caused many people | 10:40 | |
in the financial community to say we were in a new era and | 10:42 | |
you had to scrap the old textbooks of economics, | 10:46 | |
I mean the old, new textbooks of economics, | 10:48 | |
and that the administration would not be able | 10:51 | |
to do anything about the situation. | 10:55 | |
However, events have proved that the textbooks were | 10:56 | |
pretty much on the beam. | 11:00 | |
The economy has been slowing down in real terms. | 11:02 | |
It has been slowing down in money terms | 11:05 | |
because the money growth in GNP is | 11:08 | |
the sum of the real growth plus the price level change. | 11:11 | |
But condor requires us to mention and admit that the | 11:17 | |
relief on the price front has not yet | 11:25 | |
been very much in evidence. | 11:28 | |
I think there's been a little bit of evidence, | 11:31 | |
but it isn't enough really to write home about. | 11:33 | |
This strategy, which as I say, seems to have been working | 11:38 | |
and which one presumes will be pursued in the future, | 11:42 | |
has no other logic to it than that, | 11:49 | |
if the labor market is made looser, | 11:54 | |
if pressure is put on profits and upon prices, | 11:58 | |
by a reduction in the degree of the demand pull inflation, | 12:04 | |
that we can hope belatedly, | 12:10 | |
after a lag of six to nine months, after a variable lag, | 12:14 | |
we can hope to get some reduction | 12:19 | |
in the rate of price inflation. | 12:22 | |
This is not costless therapy. | 12:25 | |
It's, if you will forgive the example, | 12:28 | |
it's like the case that used to come up | 12:34 | |
where people would have rather unpleasant form of tapeworm | 12:37 | |
and the problem was how you poison the worm | 12:41 | |
without poisoning the host human, who was infested by it. | 12:43 | |
Well, so here, | 12:51 | |
there has to be an advantage and disadvantage. | 12:54 | |
The cost of the program is slower growth. | 12:58 | |
The cost of the program is lower profits, sagging profits. | 13:02 | |
The cost of the program is an increase in idle capacity. | 13:09 | |
And most important Oak Ridge all, | 13:15 | |
the cost of the program is an increase in unemployment. | 13:17 | |
Now we were able, so to speak, | 13:21 | |
to have our cake and eat it too for quite a while. | 13:23 | |
Employment began to slow down in its rate of growth. | 13:26 | |
Production slowed down. | 13:29 | |
But because industry was hoarding labor. | 13:31 | |
Because the productivity of labor was falling, | 13:34 | |
as it tends to do according to the historic textbooks | 13:37 | |
in periods of stagnation. | 13:41 | |
Because of all these things, | 13:43 | |
it did not show up very much in the unemployment figures. | 13:45 | |
The September reports do put us on our mettle. | 13:49 | |
And you're beginning to hear from the country. | 13:53 | |
You're beginning to get protests | 13:56 | |
as to whether the game is worth the candle. | 13:58 | |
I don't propose to spend very much of your time and my time | 14:03 | |
in discussing this half percent increase in unemployment, | 14:09 | |
but let me devote a few words to it. | 14:15 | |
First, it is probably excessive. | 14:21 | |
The seasonal correction in the Autumn, | 14:26 | |
in the unemployment series is a very difficult one to make. | 14:28 | |
And it's a good bet that if you will just wait a while | 14:31 | |
and when we look back on this period, | 14:37 | |
it will turn out that there was not the equivalent | 14:40 | |
of a true half of 1% increase in unemployment | 14:43 | |
between August and September. | 14:47 | |
That's point number one. | 14:49 | |
Point number two, however, is that it is not surprising | 14:52 | |
that at this state, unemployment registers about 4%. | 14:57 | |
What was partially surprising was how low unemployment | 15:03 | |
had been prior to September. | 15:06 | |
You will remember the various ingenious explanations | 15:10 | |
which I provided for you to explain why | 15:14 | |
unemployment was probably a deceptive series | 15:18 | |
as to what was going on at this time. | 15:22 | |
Of course, the prime strand and that explanation | 15:24 | |
was the phenomenon so much observed in Europe, | 15:28 | |
where the old fashioned business cycle | 15:33 | |
has not reared its head for, really decades now. | 15:35 | |
This phenomenon is that during a pause, | 15:39 | |
employers knowing that the labor market is still tight, | 15:43 | |
knowing that it will be difficult if once they lose | 15:47 | |
their labor force to recruit those people back again | 15:50 | |
for their own plants, prefer to treat labor pretty much | 15:53 | |
as an overhead item and to hoard it, | 15:58 | |
letting productivity fall. | 16:03 | |
Perhaps that process which has been going on | 16:08 | |
to a considerable degree has diminished a little bit. | 16:10 | |
There's no guarantee that the unemployment, | 16:15 | |
which is essentially there, | 16:18 | |
would be concealed by this process indefinitely. | 16:21 | |
And we've gotten this big change. | 16:26 | |
Let's stipulate therefore, that unemployment is correctly, | 16:32 | |
as we measure it, somewhere around 4%. | 16:39 | |
It doesn't matter if it's 3.8%, or whether it's 4%, | 16:41 | |
or whether 4.1%. | 16:44 | |
Let's also stipulate that every sign indicates | 16:46 | |
that unemployment will be slowly rising so that | 16:52 | |
we can look forward to 4.1% to 4.2%, 4.3%. | 16:56 | |
I don't think that there's anything on the horizon | 17:04 | |
that suggests that, say by the middle of next year, | 17:07 | |
that unemployment will have reached a level above 5%. | 17:10 | |
Perhaps I might just look at a sheet of paper before me, | 17:17 | |
in which a private estimator of GNP, | 17:22 | |
who has a pretty good record, has written numbers down | 17:27 | |
into the second quarter of 1970, and I note here | 17:32 | |
that he show the third quarter of the year, | 17:39 | |
that includes September, only a 3.6% average rate. | 17:45 | |
This was done before | 17:50 | |
the third quarter figures were available. | 17:51 | |
He had 3.3 in the first quarter, well he couldn't | 17:55 | |
go wrong on that because he knew what had been reported. | 17:57 | |
He had 3.5 in the second quarter, | 18:01 | |
that too is past knowledge. | 18:03 | |
He had 3.6 in the third quarter, | 18:07 | |
one presumes that that figure, if he could do it over today, | 18:10 | |
he would raise a bit, averaging out | 18:14 | |
August and September and July, so let's call it 3.7%. | 18:18 | |
And the fourth quarter he shows as 3.8%. | 18:26 | |
Let's suppose that he's got a bias, so let's make that 3.9%. | 18:31 | |
Then in the first quarter he has 4.1% | 18:37 | |
and in the second quarter is 4.4%. | 18:40 | |
From this, all that I can make out is that | 18:44 | |
you might say that by the second quarter, | 18:47 | |
if this man's GNP forecasts are right, | 18:49 | |
we'll have about 4 1/2% unemployment. | 18:53 | |
I should say that his forecasts seem to me | 18:58 | |
to be quite in fashion. | 19:02 | |
He is perhaps more optimistic than an monetarist would be, | 19:06 | |
if that monetarist were convinced that the Federal Reserve | 19:13 | |
is going to keep the money supply growing at | 19:18 | |
no more rapid a rate than 2% for the rest of this year. | 19:21 | |
Such a man, I presume, would say that | 19:27 | |
a real National Bureau with session is in the offing | 19:30 | |
and should be here by about the beginning of next year | 19:33 | |
or certainly by Easter time. | 19:42 | |
Now the point of this exercise, in creating a slowdown, | 19:47 | |
is to produce some slack in the labor market | 19:50 | |
and to lessen inflationary pressure. | 19:54 | |
Now that unemployment has leaped upward, | 19:58 | |
the country naturally begins to look at the price tag, | 20:02 | |
at the cost and begins to worry about whether that cost | 20:07 | |
will fall on those groups, who are already handicapped, | 20:11 | |
who already can least bear the burden. | 20:17 | |
Also such people sensitive to the growth of unemployment | 20:23 | |
point out that you may have disturbances, | 20:27 | |
and confrontations, and riots in the ghetto. | 20:29 | |
As far as I can tell from no deep analysis | 20:37 | |
and close observation of the fine detail of | 20:43 | |
the unemployment jump in September, | 20:47 | |
there was a reassuring aspect about it. | 20:50 | |
It was not primarily in non-white unemployment. | 20:53 | |
It was not primarily in ghetto youth unemployment. | 20:58 | |
Perhaps we are witnessing, under the surface, | 21:03 | |
some slight tendency towards improved manpower policies | 21:07 | |
with respect to the handicapped, non-white population. | 21:13 | |
This outcry from the country, once unemployment has grown, | 21:22 | |
is not something surprising. | 21:30 | |
Indeed the advocates of gradualism have feared it all along | 21:33 | |
and that has been one of their | 21:38 | |
most powerful political arguments. | 21:39 | |
Economically, it would appear that they've been | 21:41 | |
too gradualistic, but politically they have said, | 21:45 | |
and perhaps time will prove them right in this, | 21:48 | |
that if the economic brakes are put on too hard, | 21:52 | |
that will not really buy you | 21:57 | |
the anti-inflationary results you want because | 21:59 | |
by putting on those brakes too hard, | 22:04 | |
you invite too loud an outcry, too great a reaction, | 22:06 | |
and you will find yourself reversed too soon. | 22:12 | |
Better, they say, a gradual process of foot gently | 22:16 | |
on the brake all along, letting, so to speak, | 22:21 | |
unemployment sneak up rather than flagrantly jump up, | 22:25 | |
and a gradualistic policy is one you can live with longer. | 22:31 | |
And so in the long pull you'll get more by gentle pressure, | 22:36 | |
than you can hope to get by strong pressure, | 22:40 | |
which the body politic will not permit you to | 22:44 | |
continue in the future. | 22:48 | |
My guess is that the country is not yet | 22:52 | |
so worried about unemployment that it will put | 23:00 | |
strong partisan or nonpartisan pressure on the President, | 23:04 | |
on the administration, and on the Federal Reserve Board | 23:08 | |
to reverse the present policy. | 23:12 | |
That of course was the purpose of the radio speech by | 23:14 | |
President Nixon, to rally some support for his policy. | 23:17 | |
One can only feel sorry for the Secretary of Treasury, | 23:22 | |
David Kennedy, who when testifying | 23:26 | |
about the increase in unemployment earlier, | 23:28 | |
was more or less, by accident, trapped into seeming to say | 23:33 | |
that the unemployment was okay. | 23:39 | |
Now, what is the poor chap supposed to say? | 23:43 | |
If we were as sophisticated as the people, | 23:47 | |
he could lay it on the line and say that this is | 23:50 | |
part of the breaking of eggshells, | 23:53 | |
which is necessary in order to make omelets, | 23:56 | |
but that's not at all the way we run our public life. | 23:58 | |
We run it always on a policy of euphemism and duplicity. | 24:00 | |
We, the people, want the duplicity. | 24:10 | |
We want things to be hypocritical. | 24:12 | |
And so he had to come back the next day and somewhat | 24:14 | |
ignominiously and shame facedly say, | 24:18 | |
"Well, of course, no unemployment is any good, | 24:21 | |
and we feel that very much in this administration, | 24:24 | |
and I feel it personally, it's just that we have to | 24:28 | |
do something about the inflation." | 24:33 | |
Now in the time that's left to me today, | 24:38 | |
I want to say something about what all this means, | 24:40 | |
probably, for interest rates. | 24:44 | |
Has that long awaited turn in the bond market come? | 24:47 | |
My suspicion now is that the answer is probably yes. | 24:53 | |
If I had the date the likely highest yield point | 24:58 | |
for long term securities, marketable securities, | 25:05 | |
I'm not talking about mortgages, | 25:09 | |
which are subject to a different kind of a lag, | 25:11 | |
I would probably put it in that hour after the | 25:14 | |
September unemployment figures were announced. | 25:18 | |
Then was the finest hour, or the most, | 25:21 | |
or the nadir, you might say, for bond prices. | 25:26 | |
I say this because after that event, | 25:30 | |
the financial community generally | 25:35 | |
has swung around to the view that the | 25:38 | |
anti-inflation medicine is working, | 25:42 | |
that retardation is here, that more is ahead. | 25:46 | |
And just that psychological acceptance would be expected | 25:51 | |
to change the liquidity preference, | 25:57 | |
the willingness to take on bonds. | 26:00 | |
And so we have had, | 26:06 | |
purely at the psychological level I think, | 26:08 | |
an increase in the demand for bonds, | 26:13 | |
which would raise their price | 26:16 | |
and which would lower their yields. | 26:17 | |
I've hesitated to say this, and even now | 26:21 | |
I think it's a close run thing | 26:24 | |
and that it could be reversed. | 26:27 | |
And moreover, I personally, | 26:29 | |
for reasons which I have mentioned earlier, | 26:32 | |
do not think that you're gonna get a tremendous | 26:34 | |
increase in bond prices | 26:37 | |
and a rapid fall in long term interest rates. | 26:38 | |
I expect the fall to be gradual. | 26:43 | |
Moreover, I expect it to be interrupted. | 26:47 | |
The reason for this is the other side of the picture. | 26:50 | |
I said an increase in the demand for bonds | 26:54 | |
one can now expect, but there is also | 26:57 | |
going to be an increase in supply | 27:03 | |
because the tightness of the Federal Reserve | 27:05 | |
will be driving more and more people | 27:08 | |
to replenish their liquidity by coming to the market. | 27:11 | |
As every time bonds rise, the calendar will also rise | 27:15 | |
and this will put a damper on the degree of | 27:19 | |
increase of bonds. | 27:23 | |
So I think you're gonna have | 27:25 | |
a scissors movement between these. | 27:26 | |
But unless something surprises us very much | 27:29 | |
about the inflation picture, such as a new | 27:34 | |
outburst of private investment confirming | 27:38 | |
and even going beyond the Renfrey Edie estimates, | 27:43 | |
I would think that the tightest situation | 27:48 | |
in the bond market is no longer ahead of us. | 27:54 | |
I think this but also apparently the stock market thinks it. | 28:01 | |
One rather expected that as soon as interest rates | 28:07 | |
began to stop rising, perhaps began to ease a little bit, | 28:11 | |
that this would be a very bullish factor in Wall Street, | 28:16 | |
and certainly the increases of recent times were probably, | 28:19 | |
at least in the short run, related to | 28:25 | |
the change expectation with respect to the bond market. | 28:28 | |
There also is the peace situation. | 28:31 | |
Wall Street is hungry for dovish signs. | 28:34 | |
Here I think the moratorium is important. | 28:40 | |
What's important about the moratorium is | 28:43 | |
that a signal is being given to the President. | 28:46 | |
A signal that it is bad politics to keep this war going | 28:50 | |
and that it will be better politics, | 28:56 | |
even though uncomfortable politics, | 28:59 | |
to cut one's losses. | 29:02 | |
Obviously the people who advocate the moratorium | 29:04 | |
are themselves working into a position | 29:08 | |
for unilateral withdrawal. | 29:10 | |
Many of them have been in that position for a long time | 29:13 | |
and have just been too shy to say so. | 29:16 | |
And since the military strategists seem to have no way | 29:19 | |
of our getting out of there except ignominiously | 29:23 | |
and with the withdrawal and with a certain amount of | 29:27 | |
letting down of some of our allies, | 29:30 | |
some of whom are rather dubious fellows, | 29:33 | |
that would seem to be the thing which Wall Street | 29:38 | |
is looking for and I think that the President | 29:42 | |
is getting the message. | 29:47 | |
He has said and properly so perhaps, | 29:49 | |
that he will not be influenced by mere demonstration. | 29:52 | |
But President Johnson was very much influenced | 29:55 | |
by the demonstration of the McCarthy vote | 29:58 | |
in New Hampshire and properly so. | 30:02 | |
And I think that Mr. Nixon is getting the message. | 30:05 | |
So this too will be noted by Wall Street, | 30:09 | |
every new bit of favorable news with respect to | 30:14 | |
deescalation of the war will probably | 30:17 | |
be regarded as bullish. | 30:20 | |
And so you're left with a tug of war. | 30:23 | |
A tug of war between the bullish factors of easier, | 30:26 | |
slightly easier interest rates, | 30:29 | |
and possible peace breakthroughs | 30:31 | |
with the prospect of further retardation | 30:34 | |
and further erosion of profits ahead. | 30:39 | |
When the turn is in sight, the upturn, | 30:42 | |
then you will have all the factors working together | 30:47 | |
and that could set the scene for a rather considerable | 30:52 | |
and sustained rise in equities. | 30:56 | |
In the meantime, a brownie in motion of wandering up | 30:59 | |
and down, is perhaps as good a bet as any other. | 31:03 | |
- | Thank you Dr. Samuelson. | 31:07 |
IDI welcomes your comments and questions. | 31:09 | |
Send them to: | 31:12 | |
Instructional Dynamics, | 31:13 | |
166 East Superior Street, | 31:14 | |
Chicago 60611. | 31:17 |
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