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- | Instructional Dynamics Incorporated of Chicago | 0:02 |
again brings you Dr. Paul Samuelson, professor of economics | 0:04 | |
at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. | 0:08 | |
Professor Samuelson, what's on your mind | 0:11 | |
for the week of May 5th? | 0:13 | |
- | We've had a great deal of discussion lately | 0:14 |
about the first hundred days of Richard Nixon. | 0:17 | |
Perhaps a few words would be in order to give my opinion | 0:21 | |
about how things are going in Washington, | 0:26 | |
and how things are going in the country. | 0:29 | |
The expression in the first 100 days, of course, | 0:32 | |
has great currency from the many and exciting | 0:35 | |
things that happened back in 1933, | 0:39 | |
during Franklin Roosevelt's honeymoon period. | 0:43 | |
Again, when John Kennedy became president in 1961, | 0:49 | |
We were bombarded each day by exciting new things happening. | 0:54 | |
In connection with the 1917 revolution in Russia, | 1:02 | |
we heard about the 10 days that shook the world. | 1:07 | |
These are just ways of punctuating the passage of time, | 1:10 | |
so that the one can delineate what is happening. | 1:14 | |
But there is another importance | 1:20 | |
to these periods. | 1:23 | |
It is sometimes said in American history, | 1:26 | |
that it must be at the beginning that a new president | 1:29 | |
that accomplishes something, | 1:33 | |
because after he has been in for a while, | 1:35 | |
there is an inevitable attrition of his popularity | 1:38 | |
and of his leadership. | 1:43 | |
I don't know if that's the case. | 1:45 | |
It certainly is the case that almost any president | 1:48 | |
how ever unpopular he is, | 1:53 | |
ultimately to be will be found, | 1:56 | |
if you take Gallup poll ratings in the first weeks | 2:01 | |
and months of his administration to rise in popularity, | 2:05 | |
and the last time I saw a sounding and this matter, | 2:10 | |
it appeared that Richard Nixon was no exception. | 2:14 | |
Many of the people who must have voted against him | 2:18 | |
in November are now saying that he's doing | 2:21 | |
a pretty good job. | 2:25 | |
If it were true, | 2:30 | |
that one must use this popularity at the very beginning, | 2:32 | |
then perhaps there would be reason for criticism | 2:36 | |
because not very much substantive | 2:41 | |
has actually been happening. | 2:45 | |
I saw one columnist who referred | 2:49 | |
to the New Deal of Franklin Roosevelt, | 2:52 | |
to the Fair Deal of Harry Truman, | 2:57 | |
to the Square Deal I guess it was a Theodore Roosevelt. | 2:59 | |
He said that you'd have to call the Nixon performance, | 3:03 | |
a case of no deal or the nothing deal because | 3:08 | |
very little has been happening. | 3:13 | |
Now there's a sense in which that might be a good thing. | 3:18 | |
If your conception of the presidency, | 3:22 | |
the role of government was that of a decidedly limited role, | 3:24 | |
and that what needed to be done was to peel away the power | 3:31 | |
and activity of government to return toward an earlier style | 3:35 | |
of doing things, then no news might | 3:40 | |
be the very best news in the world. | 3:43 | |
By this definition if we work at it hard enough, | 3:47 | |
we may finally get back to that best of all presidents | 3:51 | |
Calvin Coolidge, the last president | 3:56 | |
who for non health reasons took a nap every afternoon | 3:59 | |
in the White House and who actually saved money | 4:06 | |
on his salary even though it was the booming days | 4:10 | |
of the 1920s on his travel allowances. | 4:14 | |
I don't think that that's good enough | 4:20 | |
in these days, that is not my conception of the role | 4:23 | |
of government, and so it was just that Mr. Nixon | 4:26 | |
was doing nothing I would not applaud him for it. | 4:31 | |
However, I have some good things to say about | 4:34 | |
Mr. Nixon's inaction. | 4:39 | |
Since many of us I include myself in part in the group | 4:41 | |
were fearful that we might have a doctrinaire. | 4:46 | |
wild died person who would do a lot | 4:51 | |
and we do a lot of the wrong things. | 4:55 | |
I'm very agreeably surprised by his low keyed approach. | 4:57 | |
Let let me give an example, | 5:04 | |
it's an example that has a bearing upon economics, | 5:06 | |
although it's not primarily economic. | 5:08 | |
Let's take Mr. Nixon's emotive behavior with respect | 5:12 | |
to the ABM defense missile system. | 5:15 | |
Almost no scientist has a good word to say for this. | 5:21 | |
Yet politically there's a hawkish group in the country, | 5:28 | |
who are very much in favor of it, | 5:32 | |
or become very much in favor of it. | 5:34 | |
I don't think that's for economic reasons. | 5:36 | |
It's very hard to do sensible research | 5:39 | |
on the topic called the military industrial complex | 5:43 | |
to try operationally to give meaning to that, | 5:46 | |
and then to see how important it is. | 5:49 | |
Now, when I say it's hard to do that | 5:51 | |
I don't mean to say that because it's hard, | 5:53 | |
that means that it doesn't exist | 5:55 | |
and we should put it down at the zero, | 5:57 | |
but it's very hard to say anything very concrete about it. | 5:58 | |
But if I were to try to say something | 6:02 | |
I think that the hawkish sentiments in the public, | 6:04 | |
and his fears of what may be happening | 6:07 | |
in the Soviet Union are more important than the pocketbook | 6:09 | |
interests of a particular defense contractors, | 6:14 | |
who would like to see an ABM missile. | 6:18 | |
Well, what did Mr. Nixon do? | 6:21 | |
He compromised. | 6:23 | |
I predicted that he would, | 6:24 | |
and I would say that his compromise is in the direction | 6:27 | |
of very much underplaying the ABM. | 6:31 | |
And for all I know at any moment, he may, in fact, | 6:36 | |
slow it down still further and abandon it if it doesn't | 6:39 | |
seem to be a good bargaining weapon. | 6:43 | |
It has cost him something politically | 6:46 | |
with the country I believe in the long run, | 6:49 | |
All of the Gallup poll shows that a majority of the people | 6:52 | |
are in favor of the ABM missile. | 6:56 | |
Well, how do you praise this? | 6:59 | |
Do you look at the whole of the donut, | 7:00 | |
or do you look at the donut? | 7:03 | |
When look at the glass of water, | 7:05 | |
do you say it's half full, | 7:07 | |
or do you say it's half empty? | 7:08 | |
I think it's too bad, that Mr. Nixon didn't go all the way | 7:11 | |
in this matter, but I'm very thankful | 7:15 | |
that he went as far as he did. | 7:19 | |
Now, I could go down the list of innumerable things | 7:21 | |
inside the economic sphere itself | 7:24 | |
and give exactly the same appraisal. | 7:27 | |
My scoring missile always be two sided, | 7:32 | |
compared to what one would have feared | 7:36 | |
with respect to Mr. Nixon, he did very well indeed, | 7:38 | |
compared to what one might hope for Mr. Nixon, | 7:41 | |
there are certain inadequacies. | 7:46 | |
But I don't wanna discuss personalities here today, | 7:49 | |
I want to discuss the policies that are being followed | 7:52 | |
and to try to give an appraisal of the hundred days. | 7:57 | |
I think that this last lack of action | 8:01 | |
is indicative of a genuine attitude | 8:05 | |
and style of the new team. | 8:10 | |
I think it also is a reflection of their indecision. | 8:13 | |
They really don't know what to do. | 8:17 | |
They really don't know how to do it, | 8:19 | |
and I sympathize with them, | 8:21 | |
because it's not an easy problem to control an inflation. | 8:23 | |
And it is an impossible problem, in my judgment, | 8:26 | |
to control and inflation without costs. | 8:29 | |
You have to inflict certain unpopular costs | 8:32 | |
upon certain groups in the population | 8:36 | |
if you are to get anywhere with the control of inflation. | 8:39 | |
And I believe I say this on the basis of no inside | 8:43 | |
information, but I do see a lot of the people | 8:47 | |
in the new government socially, | 8:49 | |
I believe that they thought that by this time | 8:52 | |
we would be further along in the fight against inflation, | 8:57 | |
then we apparently actually are. | 9:02 | |
I am sure that if I had told them how the money supply | 9:06 | |
was going to behave, had I known this back at election day, | 9:09 | |
and it said that from sometime in December | 9:14 | |
up until well into May, | 9:18 | |
the rate of growth of the money supply will be | 9:21 | |
very significantly reduced in comparison | 9:24 | |
to its previous rate of growth, | 9:26 | |
what do you think the economy will be doing at that time | 9:30 | |
and what will be the straws in the wind, | 9:36 | |
on the economic time series which point ahead then, | 9:40 | |
even though the believers in the importance of money | 9:45 | |
always emphasized the legs that are involved, | 9:50 | |
they would, I think, have expected | 9:54 | |
a little bit more to be happening by this time, | 9:57 | |
than has actually happened. | 10:00 | |
Now it could be that this is a shoe which has been dropped | 10:02 | |
from a very great height, and we're waiting | 10:06 | |
for the shoe to fall. | 10:09 | |
It is inevitably and remorselessly on its way | 10:10 | |
and it will fall and things are just about on schedule | 10:13 | |
but I think they thought it would be a little bit easier. | 10:18 | |
It's hard to know what to make a public utterances | 10:22 | |
we haven't had too many from the new team, | 10:24 | |
so I have to shop and do with the pickings | 10:27 | |
that are available. | 10:33 | |
Dr. Arthur Burns who was a very sage economist | 10:36 | |
who had cabinet rank, who was the year of Mr. Nixon | 10:39 | |
was in the White House as counselor | 10:42 | |
spoke before a TV audience some time ago. | 10:45 | |
And one of the things that he said was that | 10:49 | |
by the end of this year, by the end of 1969, | 10:52 | |
mind you which is within seven months, | 10:56 | |
we will be enjoying an increase in prices | 10:59 | |
of less than 3% per annum. | 11:03 | |
I don't believe that, I don't think you can get | 11:07 | |
a jury of expert economists at the time | 11:09 | |
who believe that. | 11:14 | |
I would not criticize Dr. Burns. | 11:16 | |
If his actual private belief | 11:21 | |
was a little bit more pessimistic than that, | 11:24 | |
but as a public official whose utterances | 11:27 | |
will affect the situation, | 11:31 | |
if he might have felt it on the spur of the moment | 11:33 | |
you ought to gloss over the nature of the difficulty | 11:37 | |
a little bit. | 11:39 | |
But in any case, taking that as a typical utterance, | 11:41 | |
I think it is not credible. | 11:45 | |
Professor Houthakker well, I say professor | 11:50 | |
but of course he's now the member | 11:53 | |
of the Council of Economic Advisers has been very quiet. | 11:55 | |
I monitor the press regularly at the airwaves | 12:00 | |
and the only thing I've picked up from him | 12:05 | |
was a speech which he made in Europe, | 12:06 | |
which he had arranged to make I think before | 12:09 | |
he was ever appointed to government. | 12:12 | |
And there he rather courageously said, | 12:14 | |
that is courageously for a public official, | 12:17 | |
not at all courageously for an academic | 12:19 | |
because it's what most academics have been saying | 12:21 | |
that there is a definite need for some measure | 12:25 | |
of flexibility and exchange rates. | 12:29 | |
Dr. Houthakker has long been a believer | 12:32 | |
in the fact that the American dollar | 12:35 | |
is an overvalued dollar. | 12:39 | |
When he was at Harvard he was one of the three | 12:40 | |
or four Harvard professors who thought that a depreciation | 12:43 | |
of the dollar relative to other currencies of 10 to 15% | 12:49 | |
would be a good thing. | 12:53 | |
Professor Godfrey tabular who was head | 12:56 | |
of the International Task Force for Nixon | 12:59 | |
was another one of those Harvard economists. | 13:01 | |
Somebody once asked me, was it significant there were three | 13:04 | |
Harvard economists in favor of depreciation. | 13:07 | |
I said, not at all, there's three Harvard economist | 13:09 | |
in favor of any view of that you can state | 13:12 | |
that house has many mansions and many voices | 13:15 | |
they did that all speak in unison, | 13:19 | |
but nevertheless Houthakker represented a very popular | 13:21 | |
refrain in our profession, and I think he is rather | 13:26 | |
in favor of a crawling pig, | 13:29 | |
maybe in his heart of hearts, he is even in favor | 13:31 | |
of a floating exchange rate. | 13:33 | |
I think it's rather courageous that as a public official, | 13:36 | |
he felt free to be able to give | 13:39 | |
a plug toward that general view point. | 13:43 | |
Paul McCracken has been very silent for quite a while | 13:48 | |
except for the necessary testimony before | 13:52 | |
the Joint Economic Committee. | 13:55 | |
I have very little to report or to appraise with respect | 13:58 | |
to Paul McCracken. | 14:02 | |
Herbert Stein, the third final member of the Council | 14:04 | |
has spoken out. | 14:09 | |
He definitely is giving out a council of gradualism. | 14:14 | |
This is consistent with his whole lifestyle. | 14:19 | |
He is a skeptic if he came out forthright | 14:22 | |
with a very strong program and with great confidence, | 14:26 | |
I would wonder whether an imposter had taken over | 14:30 | |
whether he had changed his breakfast food. | 14:33 | |
He is a sage fellow have good judgment, | 14:38 | |
who follows the times and follows | 14:41 | |
the fashion somewhat cautiously. | 14:43 | |
One thing that was discernible in his testimony | 14:45 | |
was a relative downgrading of his confidence | 14:48 | |
in the efficacy of fiscal policy | 14:52 | |
and a modest upgrading of his conference in monetary policy. | 14:55 | |
It's my impression that there's been a change | 15:02 | |
in the attitude of the administration economists | 15:05 | |
towards the Federal Reserve. | 15:09 | |
It wasn't very long ago I believe, | 15:12 | |
that a number of the administration economists | 15:13 | |
were wondering whether the Federal Reserve | 15:16 | |
wasn't over doing this. | 15:19 | |
Wasn't engaged in in overkill? | 15:21 | |
Whether it's having the money supply, | 15:25 | |
however you wanna define it, | 15:28 | |
grow at only a couple of percent, | 15:30 | |
whether that wasn't going almost certainly | 15:33 | |
to give us a substantial slow down | 15:36 | |
which would be semantically hardly recognizably different | 15:40 | |
from a recession by the end of the year. | 15:44 | |
If that was the case, I think there has been a gradual | 15:48 | |
changing of mood, and I think this change can be traced | 15:51 | |
very directly to what has been happening | 15:55 | |
to the index number of prices. | 15:58 | |
That eight tenths of a percent increase, | 16:02 | |
in the consumers price index for March, | 16:05 | |
which is said to be a 9.6% annual rate of increase. | 16:08 | |
But if you go through the arithmetic of compound interest, | 16:14 | |
it's rather more than that, more than 10%. | 16:17 | |
That was indeed a shocker. | 16:21 | |
The fact that industrial wholesale prices, | 16:24 | |
the one part of the price picture which had been doing well | 16:28 | |
for a long time, that that too now shows a deterioration. | 16:33 | |
And chose an increase in prices. | 16:37 | |
That was a further shocker. | 16:40 | |
Now it's very wrong to make much of one month's figures, | 16:43 | |
0.8 which is as high a figure as has occurred | 16:49 | |
since the Korean War period, | 16:54 | |
will probably be followed | 16:56 | |
at the next announcement for the month of April just over | 16:58 | |
one supposes with the 0.6 or 0.5, | 17:04 | |
I've heard some noises from the Department of Labor | 17:08 | |
in that direction. | 17:10 | |
But if we take a three month period, | 17:13 | |
January, February, March, then there's a little more | 17:17 | |
statistical stability and regularity | 17:20 | |
in an average of that sort. | 17:23 | |
And that shows a 6% rate of increase in consumers prices. | 17:25 | |
This tells us all, | 17:31 | |
that as I've said, on these tapes, | 17:34 | |
we've hardly made the first step | 17:37 | |
in the fight against inflation. | 17:40 | |
And I think this has changed the view of the administration. | 17:43 | |
What is the private view | 17:48 | |
of the economists in the administration? | 17:50 | |
When a man sits in his office and faces himself | 17:53 | |
in the mirror or talks it over with his wife, | 17:57 | |
what does he really think is going to happen? | 18:00 | |
Now, I of course, I'm not privileged to be a fly on the wall | 18:03 | |
and to know what goes on in the mind of such a person. | 18:07 | |
But I think that I can put myself pretty well in his shoes, | 18:11 | |
and ask myself what would I think in the same situation. | 18:15 | |
Now, of course, in order to put myself in his shoes, | 18:21 | |
I must slightly change the size of my feet. | 18:23 | |
I think given not my own | 18:28 | |
actual attitudes with respect | 18:32 | |
to what's good and bad about the economy, | 18:34 | |
but transforming those into his attitudes | 18:36 | |
and his way of thinking, what would I believe? | 18:42 | |
And I guess I would believe something like the following. | 18:49 | |
First, I wouldn't know any more really | 18:53 | |
than the man in the street. | 18:56 | |
What the intention of the president were with respect | 18:58 | |
to the Vietnam War? | 19:00 | |
Whether the president is prepared as the Vietcong, | 19:03 | |
show some signs of being agreeable to talk, | 19:08 | |
a to de escalate substantially, | 19:12 | |
I don't know, and neither would he know. | 19:14 | |
The estimates have to be made independently | 19:17 | |
of any such confidence knowledge. | 19:20 | |
Maybe the president himself doesn't know, | 19:22 | |
but I hope that that's not the case. | 19:24 | |
Perhaps it is the case that the president is ready | 19:27 | |
to deescalate, having made a determination | 19:31 | |
in that direction, but hopes to get some concessions | 19:34 | |
from the North Vietnamese | 19:39 | |
and the Vietcong before doing so. | 19:42 | |
But he's prepared unilaterally to cut his losses, | 19:44 | |
even if he doesn't get those concessions. | 19:48 | |
Since we don't know that, | 19:50 | |
let's go through the exercise in two steps. | 19:52 | |
First, assuming that the war goes along pretty much | 19:56 | |
like the following for the next 15, 18 months | 20:00 | |
or two years time. | 20:03 | |
If that was the case, this is the timetable, | 20:06 | |
I think that a new administration economists would expect. | 20:08 | |
He believes that the type money of the Federal Reserve, | 20:13 | |
if maintained long enough definitely | 20:18 | |
will slow down the economy. | 20:21 | |
And he does expect the Federal Reserve | 20:24 | |
to keep the rate of growth of the money supply in check | 20:27 | |
whether it's kept quite down at its sub normal levels | 20:33 | |
of the present for months to come, | 20:39 | |
or whether it reverts back to a more | 20:42 | |
maintainable long term level. | 20:45 | |
Nevertheless, he is counting on the Federal Reserve | 20:46 | |
not to reintroduce easy money until some progress | 20:49 | |
is made towards the control of the inflation. | 20:55 | |
Because of the delayed effects of past | 21:00 | |
Federal Reserve policy, | 21:02 | |
because of the later effects of maintained | 21:05 | |
and future Federal Reserve policy, | 21:10 | |
and because the surcharge is still on the books | 21:13 | |
at the 10% rate till the end of the year, | 21:17 | |
and has to be on the books, presumably at a 5% rate | 21:20 | |
into the next first part of next year. | 21:24 | |
For all these reasons, | 21:29 | |
the forecasts of any Washington economist, | 21:32 | |
and I mean now the private forecast in which he believes, | 21:36 | |
that something that's put on TV for the purpose possibly | 21:39 | |
of influence events, must be that by the fourth quarter | 21:44 | |
of the year, the rate of growth of the GNP | 21:48 | |
will be definitely less than it has just proved to be, | 21:51 | |
less than 16 billion. | 21:57 | |
Let's say a 10 billion, 11 billion, 12 billion. | 22:00 | |
For the third quarter it's not so clear because now, | 22:07 | |
that the Nixon economists have gone to Washington and looked | 22:10 | |
very closely at the figures, | 22:13 | |
they realize that in the third quarter, | 22:15 | |
there's a big jump in government payrolls. | 22:17 | |
So large that that will represent a definite blip | 22:22 | |
in the rate of growth of the money GNP | 22:27 | |
in the third quarter over the second quarter. | 22:30 | |
So he would be rash at this time to put down a number | 22:34 | |
as low as $11 billion, even though that will | 22:39 | |
be six, seven months after the onset of rather tight | 22:43 | |
Federal Reserve policy. | 22:49 | |
In short, there is no doubt in the mind of professional | 22:54 | |
Washington economist that modern macro economics can work. | 22:59 | |
He doesn't feel defeated. | 23:04 | |
His problem is, what is the proper dosage | 23:05 | |
and what do we buy for each amount of restriction, | 23:08 | |
and what does it cost us. | 23:12 | |
Nevertheless, if he's a realist, | 23:15 | |
and I think he is, | 23:18 | |
he will know that by the fourth quarter, | 23:21 | |
this will not do much to change | 23:26 | |
the inflationary price picture. | 23:29 | |
If we talk about the GNP deflator | 23:33 | |
that's a very sluggish Price Index. | 23:37 | |
It's very hard to bring it down by very much, | 23:41 | |
he will be whistling in the wind in my judgment, | 23:44 | |
if he thinks that the recent increase in that deflator | 23:46 | |
which has been about 4.3% will be down to below 4%. | 23:50 | |
If we look at the consumers price index, | 23:56 | |
that is so heavily weighted with services | 23:58 | |
whose wage component is still on the rise, | 24:02 | |
and which very rarely reverses itself, | 24:06 | |
and never reverses itself dramatically, | 24:11 | |
will do very well if the recent 6% rate has subsided. | 24:13 | |
Again I would say, to a bit above 4%. | 24:19 | |
When it comes to wholesale prices, | 24:26 | |
and particularly with respect to sensitive wholesale prices, | 24:28 | |
there you have a better chance, | 24:31 | |
I think, by the fourth quarter to show some diminution. | 24:35 | |
But you'd be a rash man to bet odds on and with confidence | 24:38 | |
that even there there would be much of a change. | 24:44 | |
Of course, the whole strategy of gradualism is, | 24:47 | |
that we will reap in 1970 some of the benefits | 24:50 | |
of this slow down in the rate of real growth. | 24:54 | |
And mind you by the fourth quarter of the year, | 24:57 | |
if the money GNP is only growing at 11 billion | 25:01 | |
or $12 billion per annum, | 25:04 | |
the vast preponderance of that will be pure price change. | 25:08 | |
And we will be at annual rates of growth in terms of the | 25:13 | |
real economy of not the 4%, which is capable, | 25:15 | |
but only a couple of a percent. | 25:21 | |
Well, good. | 25:26 | |
That means we at least we're on our way. | 25:34 | |
No, not good. | 25:37 | |
I think in the ones private moments one could permit oneself | 25:39 | |
a little low despondency because, | 25:45 | |
just at that point, the effort to fight inflation | 25:47 | |
will begin to hurt. | 25:53 | |
Just at that point out imply what will be rising, | 25:55 | |
to the 4% the level, to the four and a quarter percent, | 25:59 | |
to the four and a half percent. | 26:04 | |
And I even there, I exaggerate but then, | 26:06 | |
we'll come the testing period. | 26:09 | |
And if the president wants to be popular and remember | 26:12 | |
the 1970 elections will be getting closer in view | 26:16 | |
as we get into 1970 itself, | 26:20 | |
then I think that prior to the time, | 26:23 | |
they will succeed in bringing the price inflation down, | 26:27 | |
even to the 3% goal that gradualist talked about earlier, | 26:29 | |
the infection will begin to hurt. | 26:33 | |
And so if we stay with our model in which the Vietnam War | 26:37 | |
has not substantially deescalated, | 26:41 | |
there will be very much pressure at that time | 26:44 | |
upon the administration and upon Congress, | 26:47 | |
and by Congress to begin to ease up. | 26:50 | |
I cannot pinpoint for you exactly what is likely to happen | 26:54 | |
but one definitely good possibility is, | 26:59 | |
that the rate of inflation will abate from 6% down | 27:02 | |
towards 4%, maybe a little bit less, | 27:06 | |
will be maintained there for a little while, | 27:09 | |
but then there's a very great danger, | 27:11 | |
that in order to minimize the cost of that policy, | 27:14 | |
there will be an easing up. | 27:18 | |
And so the rate of inflation will again, | 27:20 | |
begin slowly to pick up | 27:22 | |
to accelerate back towards a 5%. | 27:26 | |
As a as a betting man, | 27:30 | |
I would not at all be sure | 27:33 | |
that if we wanna talk about where the price index will be | 27:36 | |
at the end of the first term of Mr. Nixon, | 27:39 | |
in comparison with word was at the beginning, | 27:42 | |
and if we re establish the price based at 100 | 27:45 | |
at the beginning that we may not see in four years time | 27:48 | |
something like 15 to 20% increase in prices. | 27:52 | |
So I conclude from this diagnosis, | 27:59 | |
that inflation is still with us. | 28:03 | |
Now, just one word, | 28:05 | |
all bets are off on what I've talked about, | 28:08 | |
if the other eventuality materializes, | 28:10 | |
namely that there's a substantial deescalation | 28:14 | |
of the Vietnam War, that would require a whole long story | 28:17 | |
in and of itself. | 28:21 | |
Thank you very much. | 28:23 | |
- | Thank you Professor Paul Samuelson of MIT. | 28:25 |
We will be hearing more from you next week. | 28:28 | |
If you have questions, comments or suggestions | 28:30 | |
write IDI 166 East Superior Street, | 28:33 | |
Chicago six, O, six, one, one. | 28:37 |
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