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- | Hello and welcome again | 0:02 |
as Professor Paul Samuelson of MIT discusses | 0:03 | |
the current economic scene. | 0:06 | |
This tape was recorded | 0:08 | |
for Instructional Dynamics Incorporated | 0:09 | |
for the week of April 20th, 1970. | 0:11 | |
- | I think this is an exciting point | 0:14 |
in the development of the American economy. | 0:16 | |
If for dramatic emphasis | 0:21 | |
I exaggerate the point a little bit, | 0:23 | |
I might say that it was this morning | 0:25 | |
that the mini recession of 1969/1970 came to an end. | 0:28 | |
And so, in the second quarter | 0:34 | |
we can look for a very moderate amount of advance | 0:36 | |
and the advance should quicken a little bit | 0:41 | |
in the third and fourth quarters. | 0:45 | |
Now I don't say this of course with complete confidence. | 0:48 | |
It's just that on March 1st in 1961, | 0:53 | |
I made a similar dramatic pronouncement | 0:59 | |
and it happened to be just about right, | 1:02 | |
so I'm gonna see whether history can repeat itself twice. | 1:04 | |
Now why do I say this? | 1:09 | |
It certainly isn't because the first quarter | 1:12 | |
Gross National Product in real terms grew. | 1:14 | |
We just now have those figures | 1:18 | |
and they come out pretty much as was expected | 1:20 | |
by close watchers. | 1:23 | |
They're a little bit better | 1:26 | |
than those who took very seriously the drastic decline | 1:28 | |
in January inventories | 1:35 | |
which were primarily in retail stocks of autos. | 1:36 | |
They're a little bit better than that. | 1:41 | |
But they do represent a minus 1.5, 1.6 to be exact percent | 1:43 | |
annual rate of decline in real GNP. | 1:49 | |
And what I think is extremely interesting | 1:54 | |
is the fact the pace of inflation | 1:56 | |
instead of slackening in the second quarter | 1:59 | |
of decline actually stepped up | 2:03 | |
to 5% from about 4.5% in the fourth quarter. | 2:06 | |
I'm referring now | 2:12 | |
to the implicit Gross National Product deflator. | 2:13 | |
And actually you could win a little bet | 2:18 | |
if you make the bet | 2:22 | |
that the official statistics | 2:24 | |
will show on revision more than a 5% increase | 2:27 | |
in the GNP deflator for the first quarter. | 2:31 | |
So, we are not out of the woods | 2:36 | |
as far as inflation is concerned. | 2:38 | |
Now, why do I think we might be no longer | 2:40 | |
in real decline? | 2:44 | |
Let me tick off the points. | 2:46 | |
In the first place, the Federal Reserve Board Index | 2:49 | |
of Production has now been announced for March | 2:51 | |
and it is up slightly, up .4% I believe. | 2:55 | |
Moreover, the February/March Federal Reserve Board Index | 3:02 | |
has been revised also upward, | 3:06 | |
so we're back in March to where we were in January. | 3:10 | |
As a matter of fact, I have to call this a mini recession | 3:15 | |
because by the test of two successive quarters | 3:19 | |
of decline in real Gross National Product, | 3:23 | |
we are in more than a mini recession. | 3:26 | |
However, it's gonna be one of the most moderate recessions | 3:31 | |
on record if it is countered | 3:34 | |
by the National Bureau as a recession | 3:36 | |
and I wouldn't myself give more than even money bets | 3:39 | |
on either side of that issue | 3:43 | |
of what the pronouncement will be | 3:46 | |
by the Gross National Product. | 3:47 | |
For eight, well, not eight, | 3:50 | |
this six to eight months, | 3:53 | |
the Federal Reserve Board Index of Production | 3:55 | |
actually declined but the total of that decline | 3:58 | |
is only about 3%, a little bit over 3% | 4:02 | |
which is really almost nothing | 4:06 | |
except that we've become every jaded | 4:09 | |
and we expect each year to establish records. | 4:10 | |
Let's look at the composition of the first quarter | 4:16 | |
of GNP because I think that gives us some grounds | 4:19 | |
for expecting that the next quarter, the second quarter | 4:22 | |
of GNP, the one we're now in | 4:28 | |
will perhaps show no decline in real growth | 4:30 | |
and I would say a very minute increase in real growth. | 4:34 | |
In the first place, | 4:40 | |
the consumption did pretty well | 4:42 | |
in the first quarter. | 4:46 | |
It grew by $11 billion. | 4:48 | |
The saving rates which is something very important | 4:52 | |
to watch hardly changed. | 4:57 | |
Even though we've had a tax reduction | 5:01 | |
because the withholding rates are now lower. | 5:04 | |
We're all paying less taxes, | 5:06 | |
the surcharge has been reduced. | 5:08 | |
I remind you in this month of April | 5:10 | |
from the 10% surcharge which we had to pay | 5:12 | |
on last year's income | 5:16 | |
when we made out our returns just a few weeks ago, | 5:18 | |
has been reduced to 2.5% | 5:22 | |
and it would not have surprised the experts | 5:23 | |
if people had not passed along these savings | 5:27 | |
and if the saving ratio | 5:30 | |
that has not passed long in consumption expenditure | 5:33 | |
and if the savings ratio had leaped upward, | 5:37 | |
actually it has risen only from 6.4% in the fourth quarter | 5:39 | |
to 6.5%, so the consumer is going along fairly merrily | 5:43 | |
spending his money. | 5:49 | |
He's not spending his money in the same intensity | 5:50 | |
on durable consumer goods. | 5:54 | |
The auto industry is not selling domestic cars | 5:57 | |
at more than an eight million rate | 6:03 | |
and hasn't been for a good long time | 6:06 | |
and some other consumer durables are weak. | 6:10 | |
But by and large the consumer is spending his money | 6:13 | |
on services which are going up in price very much. | 6:16 | |
He's spending his money on non-durables | 6:19 | |
as if money was going out of fashion | 6:20 | |
and although you're hearing a good deal | 6:22 | |
of talk about poor retail sales | 6:25 | |
and that Easter was not a very happy period | 6:27 | |
and that the mini skirt | 6:30 | |
is confusing women or rather causing them | 6:32 | |
to go on a non-buying strike, | 6:34 | |
they don't wanna buy minis | 6:38 | |
because they may go out style | 6:39 | |
but they aren't yet reconciled to going out | 6:41 | |
to purchase those minis, | 6:44 | |
so they've been some slowdown in the apparel trade | 6:46 | |
but by and large final demand, | 6:49 | |
that's the behavior of Gross National Product demand | 6:52 | |
that doesn't depend primarily | 6:56 | |
upon inventories, actually increased a bit | 6:57 | |
in the first quarter of the year its rate of growth | 7:02 | |
over the rate of growth in the previous year | 7:05 | |
and for anybody who's got a lot of chips | 7:09 | |
on the bet that this is gonna be a recession | 7:13 | |
as serious as that of 1958/1959 or worse, | 7:16 | |
I remind you of the forecast of 6% to 7% unemployment | 7:20 | |
which you were hearing just a little while ago. | 7:27 | |
That particular person | 7:30 | |
will not feel that his bet has improved | 7:31 | |
by the behavior of final sales. | 7:34 | |
I should emphasize that this holding up of final sale | 7:36 | |
is in the face of the continuing decline | 7:42 | |
in government expenditure, | 7:44 | |
in particular a decline in Federal defense expenditure. | 7:46 | |
And I expect that decline in Federal defense expenditure | 7:52 | |
to continue throughout the year | 7:56 | |
and what's very important | 7:58 | |
if you're watching inventory sales ratios | 7:59 | |
is the fact that inventory sales ratio in total | 8:02 | |
have gone up but where is it that they've gone up? | 8:07 | |
It's not been across industry generally, | 8:10 | |
it's been primarily only in two sectors, | 8:14 | |
it's been in certain durable consumers sector, | 8:16 | |
autos is a case in point | 8:23 | |
and it's been in the defense-related industries. | 8:27 | |
Now, in the defense industry so-called, | 8:30 | |
not all of the inventory is defense goods. | 8:32 | |
The Boeing 747 boasts very large | 8:38 | |
in the inventory statistics these days | 8:41 | |
and Boeing is classified as being in the defense industry | 8:44 | |
but the 747 airplane which is in process | 8:48 | |
which has being built | 8:51 | |
which is a very heavy inventory item | 8:55 | |
for Boeing to carry is a civilian item. | 8:59 | |
So, not everything that I say about defense industries | 9:02 | |
can be related to the Vietnam War | 9:05 | |
and what happens to the Vietnam War. | 9:09 | |
Nevertheless, there is a tapering off in the expenditure | 9:12 | |
for defense and one would expect | 9:16 | |
that that tapering off of expenditure for defense | 9:20 | |
will cause a considerable rundown in inventories | 9:23 | |
in those industries, | 9:26 | |
so that there'll be an even greater drain, | 9:27 | |
lack of purchasing power coming in | 9:30 | |
from the government sector. | 9:32 | |
Nonetheless, in the face of this | 9:36 | |
in the first quarter of the year, | 9:39 | |
final demand increased at a rate of $13 billion per year. | 9:42 | |
Of course, the reduction came from inventories. | 9:48 | |
Inventory growth was 2.9 billion annual rate | 9:54 | |
as against 7.7 billion in the previous period. | 10:00 | |
This 2.9 number that I'm giving to you | 10:05 | |
is based upon January and February, | 10:09 | |
the March data are not yet in | 10:12 | |
and these estimates of course | 10:16 | |
are always provisional | 10:17 | |
but February showed a sharp reversal | 10:19 | |
of that downward blip in January | 10:22 | |
and as a matter of fact the magnitude | 10:25 | |
of that downward blip of inventory decumulation | 10:27 | |
in January has been revised by the statisticians, | 10:30 | |
so it appears that we were being misled | 10:34 | |
by its amount and amplitude. | 10:38 | |
Plant and equipment expenditure | 10:42 | |
is continuing to increase, | 10:43 | |
construction is still showing a small increase. | 10:46 | |
Now, the total growth of the GNP | 10:51 | |
in the first quarter was $8.2 billion | 10:56 | |
but with a 5% price deflator rise, | 11:00 | |
that means that that represent the negative real growth. | 11:04 | |
I should advise you though | 11:09 | |
that without question these statistics | 11:12 | |
are gonna be revised upward | 11:15 | |
as far as the money magnitude is concerned. | 11:16 | |
Probably history will record | 11:20 | |
either it'll be in the next quarter | 11:21 | |
when they revise the figures | 11:25 | |
or it'll be in July when they revise the figures | 11:26 | |
but it will certainly be September 1 bet | 11:29 | |
that by a year from July, | 11:32 | |
when we get the figures | 11:34 | |
for the quarter that has just passed, | 11:35 | |
the final figures that go down in history, | 11:38 | |
that they will a money growth more than $10 billion. | 11:40 | |
Now, why do I state this so confidently? | 11:43 | |
I state it because there's been a Federal pay increase. | 11:46 | |
And that Federal pay increase is retroactive | 11:50 | |
and the national GNP statistician | 11:53 | |
must take this retroactive payment, | 11:57 | |
of course he has the option of treating it | 12:01 | |
as a transfer | 12:03 | |
but it is forward performed | 12:04 | |
and I haven't any doubt | 12:07 | |
that when they weigh the bookkeeping problem | 12:09 | |
is how to treat it | 12:12 | |
that they will throw it into the money | 12:13 | |
or nominal GNP for the first quarter, | 12:16 | |
of course changing what you call it, | 12:19 | |
doesn't change the impact of it | 12:21 | |
upon the economy. | 12:25 | |
If you're a monitorist, | 12:28 | |
this prospect that I am indicating | 12:30 | |
of a more than say $10 billion growth | 12:36 | |
of nominal GNP in the second quarter | 12:41 | |
and that's only a prediction | 12:44 | |
and I could be absolutely dead wrong | 12:46 | |
and I could have to come before you | 12:48 | |
and eat humble crow | 12:51 | |
but if it works out in that way, | 12:52 | |
this is early, too early according | 12:56 | |
to the usual monitorists' past patterns | 12:59 | |
and regressions which they use for making predictions. | 13:04 | |
Now, the don't pretend | 13:07 | |
that their forecasts are 100% accurate. | 13:10 | |
At best the I squared, | 13:13 | |
that's the multiple correlation coefficient squared | 13:17 | |
which gives you the percentage of total variation | 13:21 | |
of variance in the change in the GNP | 13:24 | |
which they're able to explain, | 13:28 | |
that is not 1.0, it is not .90, | 13:30 | |
it is not .7, | 13:36 | |
it tends to be in the neighborhood of .5, .55. | 13:37 | |
Their modest claim is only this | 13:42 | |
that there's no other way of explaining even that much | 13:45 | |
by other variables. | 13:48 | |
Actually there's been a certain amount | 13:51 | |
of reconsideration of the non-monitorist position | 13:53 | |
to see how good it is, how bad it is | 13:58 | |
and by and large, | 14:01 | |
the GNP analysts have been tracking data | 14:04 | |
find that the name blip | 14:08 | |
that they were not able to account for | 14:11 | |
was in the first quarter after the surtax was put in | 14:14 | |
in 1968, that's the third quarter, | 14:18 | |
that's some time back | 14:21 | |
but beyond that they're not doing too badly | 14:23 | |
and haven't been doing too badly. | 14:26 | |
I don't mean to say by this | 14:29 | |
that what it is that they've been forecasting | 14:30 | |
is in the every case | 14:33 | |
is dramatically different | 14:34 | |
from many of the monitorists have been forecasting | 14:36 | |
but there's been quite a parallelism | 14:37 | |
in broad outline between many of the monitorists | 14:39 | |
and many of the GNP analysts. | 14:45 | |
I might just for your edification, | 14:48 | |
give you some forecasts | 14:54 | |
for the rest of the year. | 14:56 | |
The forecast that I'm gonna give you, | 14:59 | |
I'm not gonna give you in detail | 15:01 | |
but they're due to a man | 15:03 | |
whom I consider to be one of the best economic analysts | 15:05 | |
and forecasters in the business. | 15:09 | |
This is Dr. George Perry of Brookings Institute. | 15:12 | |
He is a senior staff member there. | 15:18 | |
Is a professor at the University of Minnesota. | 15:23 | |
He's on extended leave at Brookings | 15:26 | |
and he was an important analyst | 15:30 | |
in Troika and Quadriga | 15:33 | |
in the Kennedy Administration | 15:36 | |
before the Johnson Administration | 15:37 | |
back in the great Washington days of Walter Heller. | 15:39 | |
Heller's sturdy right-hand man | 15:43 | |
upon whom he depended for his numbers | 15:46 | |
was George Perry and has an outstanding reputation far | 15:49 | |
and wide as a pretty enlightened fellow. | 15:53 | |
Well, more or less as a advocation, | 15:57 | |
he keeps a running account | 16:01 | |
of what's happening in business. | 16:02 | |
He makes forecasts | 16:03 | |
and Walter Heller is very happy to acknowledge | 16:05 | |
that there's no other single person | 16:10 | |
upon whom he relies so much | 16:13 | |
for detailed America forecast | 16:16 | |
and this does not exclude himself than on George Perry. | 16:18 | |
Now, Perry's number | 16:25 | |
and I want to point out | 16:29 | |
that this forecast was made | 16:32 | |
more than a month ago | 16:36 | |
before the Housing Index showed | 16:38 | |
a upward rise for March, | 16:41 | |
before the inventory figures that I've quoted | 16:43 | |
to you for the first quarter were available, | 16:47 | |
before the Production Index had shown an increase. | 16:50 | |
George Perry's forecast | 16:54 | |
was for a 982 billion Gross National Product | 16:56 | |
in nominal terms for 1970. | 17:01 | |
That happens to be the same number | 17:04 | |
which I arrived at and mentioned to you | 17:06 | |
in the article that I wrote | 17:10 | |
for the Japanese Wall Street Journal | 17:12 | |
but as was pointed out by Professor Friedman | 17:15 | |
in commenting upon my forecast, | 17:20 | |
my new number is a dollar revision | 17:23 | |
by a third of the rate of increase for the year | 17:26 | |
from my previous December forecast | 17:29 | |
and I've gone a third of the way | 17:33 | |
in the direction of the monitorists. | 17:35 | |
Now, George Perry hasn't gone a third of the way | 17:37 | |
in the direction of the monitorists. | 17:39 | |
He has been like a rock. | 17:40 | |
This is the number he's had all along | 17:42 | |
and he has not felt any need to revise it | 17:44 | |
and although he isn't here to tell me | 17:46 | |
all of his second thoughts based upon the last month, | 17:50 | |
my guess is that he more expects this number to go up | 17:54 | |
to be above than to be down | 18:01 | |
if he were to give us his best guess at this moment, | 18:04 | |
it might be a higher guess. | 18:06 | |
I say this because the rate of price increase | 18:08 | |
has been greater than anyone had forecast. | 18:11 | |
I say that including the monitorists | 18:16 | |
and non-monitorists in the picture. | 18:19 | |
You will remember that I have been warning | 18:24 | |
since already now for 13 or 14 months | 18:27 | |
that the administration predictions | 18:31 | |
with respect to how gradualism would moderate | 18:35 | |
the rate of price inflation | 18:38 | |
but however wrong I might be | 18:39 | |
on whether there would be a recession, | 18:43 | |
more than a mini recession, | 18:45 | |
I was very confident that you can win the bet | 18:46 | |
that they would not win the inflation battle | 18:49 | |
if we use as winning inflation battle | 18:52 | |
a reduction of anything much below 4%. | 18:55 | |
Much less the below 3% which was being dangled out to us | 18:59 | |
by the end of 1969 | 19:03 | |
in the first months of the Nixon Administration. | 19:07 | |
I wanna emphasize that this is not a paining analysis, | 19:10 | |
I'd also like to emphasize | 19:17 | |
that there's nothing particularly partisan about it | 19:18 | |
because I have written out at length a private analysis | 19:21 | |
of what constitutes Republican economics. | 19:30 | |
I'm now not talking about what Leon Keyserling believes in, | 19:36 | |
I'm not talking hat Walter Heller believes in. | 19:39 | |
I am talking about what Milton Friedman believes in, | 19:42 | |
I'm talking what David Meiselman | 19:46 | |
from Macalester University | 19:48 | |
who is the chairman of Nixon's taskforce | 19:50 | |
on these subjects believes in, | 19:53 | |
I'm talking about what Professor Edmund Phelps | 19:57 | |
of the University of Pennsylvanian | 20:00 | |
who was on that taskforce believes in | 20:01 | |
and I'm talking about what Herbert Stein | 20:04 | |
of the Council of Economic Advisors | 20:07 | |
and Paul McCracken | 20:09 | |
of the Council of Economic Advisors | 20:13 | |
occasionally say what they believe in. | 20:15 | |
And according to that analysis | 20:20 | |
which is that the short run cost curve, | 20:23 | |
the short run trade-off between unemployment | 20:25 | |
and inflation is very misleading | 20:29 | |
and in the longer run, | 20:32 | |
there is no trade-off | 20:34 | |
because there tends to be in the happy expression | 20:35 | |
of Professor Milton Friedman, | 20:37 | |
a natural rate of unemployment, | 20:39 | |
this natural rate of unemployment | 20:43 | |
is the rate of unemployment | 20:44 | |
of which we're gonna have a steady inflation | 20:46 | |
of 5% or a steady inflation of 2% | 20:51 | |
or a steady inflation of 10% | 20:56 | |
or a steady inflation of 0%. | 20:58 | |
Once the steadiness of the inflation | 21:03 | |
enables everybody to see through the cheating name | 21:06 | |
that is involved in inflation. | 21:11 | |
Now, according to that particular long-run analysis | 21:13 | |
and I have before me a number | 21:18 | |
of econometric studies based | 21:21 | |
upon precisely those notions | 21:24 | |
as for example, the preliminary study | 21:26 | |
which has been made | 21:31 | |
by the vice-president of the Federal Reserve Bank | 21:32 | |
of St. Louis. | 21:34 | |
That's Dr. Leonard Anderson | 21:36 | |
and this will appear in finished revised form | 21:40 | |
in an early monthly letter of the Bank of St. Louis. | 21:44 | |
According to that analysis | 21:48 | |
and there's very similar analysis | 21:51 | |
that I've seen by Professor Robert Gordon | 21:53 | |
of the University of Chicago | 21:56 | |
who is not himself a necessarily a member | 21:58 | |
of the school that I've been talking about, | 22:02 | |
according to that analysis, | 22:03 | |
you buy very little | 22:05 | |
by a mini recession in terms of one, | 22:07 | |
long run change in the prospects for inflation | 22:13 | |
and two, you buy surprisingly little | 22:18 | |
even in the short run | 22:22 | |
and so, we're right on target | 22:25 | |
in terms of past patterns. | 22:27 | |
If you're gonna have weak gradualism | 22:29 | |
as we have so far had, | 22:33 | |
then you are not going to get very much improvement | 22:35 | |
on the price front. | 22:39 | |
Now, let's now count our chickens before they hatch. | 22:43 | |
Let's point out some counter evidence. | 22:46 | |
It's not solely important | 22:49 | |
that I tell you | 22:52 | |
what my best guess is. | 22:53 | |
I should also give you the evidence | 22:56 | |
upon which it's based | 22:58 | |
and the most valuable thing | 22:59 | |
that any person can do | 23:01 | |
is to be his own critic | 23:03 | |
and to give the qualifications | 23:04 | |
and the arguments against the position | 23:07 | |
which he himself is arguing. | 23:09 | |
So, let me point out to you | 23:11 | |
that unemployment has been leaping forward | 23:12 | |
at a very fast rate. | 23:15 | |
For a long time it was less than what I'd expected, | 23:19 | |
now it has grown almost more rapidly so | 23:22 | |
that we're in the general range of 4.5% unemployment. | 23:25 | |
One should examine where that increase in unemployment | 23:31 | |
came from in the official figures | 23:34 | |
and it comes primarily | 23:36 | |
from the fact that there's been a big influx | 23:38 | |
of women into the labor force. | 23:41 | |
I don't know what the explanation of that influx is. | 23:45 | |
I don't think that the explanation | 23:48 | |
is that the men in the family has been thrown out of work | 23:50 | |
and so now, for every man that's thrown out of work, | 23:54 | |
a woman comes into the labor force | 23:57 | |
but there may be something of that. | 23:59 | |
Now by and large, these women who've been coming | 24:01 | |
into the labor force in great number are getting jobs. | 24:04 | |
We do not have an all-pervasive weakness | 24:07 | |
in the labor market. | 24:10 | |
If you want a job in the service industry, | 24:12 | |
you do not have to wait very long to get one. | 24:14 | |
You may show up in the unemployment figures | 24:17 | |
in the short run | 24:19 | |
but in the very little time you seem | 24:20 | |
to get absorbed. | 24:23 | |
The only slackness in the labor market | 24:25 | |
seems to be in the durable goods sectors. | 24:27 | |
The number of involuntarily layoffs | 24:31 | |
in the automobile industry as typical | 24:34 | |
has grown and that trend is becoming pervasive. | 24:37 | |
I think you have another great powerful argument | 24:41 | |
against everything that I've been saying. | 24:43 | |
The National Investor of Conference Board | 24:46 | |
which is a non-profit organization | 24:49 | |
supported by business firms | 24:50 | |
has been holding meetings around the country | 24:53 | |
with businessmen and the businessmen | 24:55 | |
at this moment are saying exactly the opposite | 24:58 | |
of what I've been saying to you. | 25:01 | |
If I say to you the mini recession | 25:02 | |
came to an end this morning, | 25:04 | |
they are saying that it was yesterday evening | 25:06 | |
that the recession really began. | 25:09 | |
They are beginning to see the decline | 25:11 | |
in their first quarter profits | 25:14 | |
which the econometric analysts | 25:16 | |
have been expecting all along. | 25:18 | |
You know that when McGraw-Hill took a survey | 25:21 | |
of businessmen to see what profits they expected for 1970, | 25:24 | |
their average expectation of profit increased with 6%. | 25:28 | |
We econometricians have been debating | 25:35 | |
will overall money profits drop by 5%, | 25:37 | |
will they drop by 20%, | 25:42 | |
will they drop by 15%, will try drop by 2% | 25:45 | |
but businessmen have been saying in the face of this | 25:47 | |
that their profits are gonna increase. | 25:51 | |
Well, they're not saying that now | 25:52 | |
because their profits have gone down | 25:53 | |
and it is coming home to them. | 25:54 | |
Nevertheless the biggest community | 25:56 | |
that looks at the business of the cash register, | 26:01 | |
Tinkle of most recent date | 26:04 | |
are not the most reliable forecasters | 26:07 | |
of what is going to happen. | 26:10 | |
Well, I expect that we will have not much of a change | 26:12 | |
in inventory behavior. | 26:20 | |
I do not expect inventory decumulation | 26:21 | |
in the second quarter. | 26:24 | |
I expect inventories to begin to increase | 26:25 | |
in the third and fourth quarter. | 26:29 | |
I expect the upsurge in housing | 26:31 | |
which we had for two months in a row | 26:33 | |
to fizzle out to not very much | 26:36 | |
and we shall do well if by the end | 26:39 | |
of the year housing increases. | 26:42 | |
I definitely expect plant and equipment expenditures | 26:45 | |
to fall below what the official survey | 26:49 | |
of businessmen said. | 26:53 | |
Let me summarize by saying that 1970 | 26:55 | |
does not look to be a strong year. | 26:57 | |
It will be a year of continued inflation, | 26:59 | |
real growth will be barely more than 1%. | 27:01 | |
However, it does now appear | 27:05 | |
that the bottom will not out on us. | 27:08 | |
- | Thanks you, Professor Samuelson. | 27:10 |
If you have any questions or comments, | 27:12 | |
mail them to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 27:13 | |
166 East Superior Street, Chicago, Illinois, 60611. | 27:17 |
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