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- | Welcome once again as MIT Professor Paul Samuelson | 0:02 |
presents the Annual Economic Outlook for 1973. | 0:05 | |
This tape is recorded as part of a series | 0:09 | |
by Instructional Dynamics Incorporated | 0:12 | |
and was recorded November 29, 1972. | 0:14 | |
- | The moment of truth arrives for every analyst | 0:18 |
of the passing business scene at the end of the year | 0:22 | |
when he must look forward | 0:27 | |
to what's going to happen in the next year. | 0:30 | |
He finds himself then with plenty of company | 0:33 | |
but in a sense his projections and forecasts | 0:37 | |
have to be pitted against | 0:41 | |
those of other analysts. | 0:43 | |
This year is no exception. | 0:49 | |
It's customary to say that each year | 0:51 | |
is an especially difficult year for forecasting purposes | 0:53 | |
but I would have to admit | 0:59 | |
that seems to me, | 1:01 | |
that 1973 is a particularly | 1:05 | |
easy year | 1:09 | |
to forecast | 1:11 | |
and I can predict with more accuracy than I'll be able | 1:14 | |
to predict what happens to the actual economy. | 1:17 | |
I'll be able to predict with more accuracy | 1:21 | |
what my colleagues in the economics professions | 1:23 | |
in large New York banks, corporations all over the country, | 1:27 | |
in academic laboratories, and in Washington itself, | 1:31 | |
what they will be predicting. | 1:37 | |
Indeed, it's a matter | 1:41 | |
of annual interests | 1:43 | |
how close together | 1:47 | |
bunch the forecasts of the principal analysts. | 1:49 | |
It's no exaggeration to say that each year | 1:56 | |
there is a fashionable forecast, | 1:58 | |
and I believe that as a preparation for what lies ahead, | 2:01 | |
the most useful thing to start with | 2:06 | |
is how did the boys do | 2:09 | |
in the year 1972. | 2:12 | |
As always, there was a fashionable forecast. | 2:16 | |
Walter Heller, long before the end of 1971, | 2:24 | |
as far back as April, tipped off the magic number | 2:28 | |
when he said a 100 billion dollars. | 2:32 | |
And so roughly speaking, | 2:36 | |
the number to remember | 2:38 | |
for '72 for money GNP, | 2:41 | |
was an increase of money GNP | 2:45 | |
of about the magnitude of a 100 billion dollars. | 2:49 | |
Very easy number to remember, | 2:52 | |
but in order to give it some substance, | 2:55 | |
let's realize | 3:00 | |
that this number | 3:03 | |
is on the denominator | 3:07 | |
of more than a trillion dollars. | 3:10 | |
The GNP at the end of the year | 3:15 | |
was a trillion and 50 billion. | 3:18 | |
1050 roughly, and it's going to end up | 3:23 | |
very close to 1150. | 3:27 | |
We still don't know what the GNP for 1972 will be | 3:32 | |
because we don't have the fourth quarter. | 3:36 | |
We're in the last part of the fourth quarter | 3:39 | |
but the most important determinant | 3:42 | |
to what's going to happen in the fourth quarter, | 3:45 | |
which is the Christmas retail season, | 3:46 | |
is really still ahead of us. | 3:50 | |
But still, when we average these numbers in | 3:52 | |
you can say, with very considerable precision | 3:54 | |
that you'll win bets on giving numbers like 1149.9 | 3:57 | |
and let's be modest, round of to 1150. | 4:03 | |
So it's a 100 billion dollar increase. | 4:05 | |
Now what will happen ahead? | 4:07 | |
Before going into that, let's notice | 4:11 | |
that that's the money GNP and it is swelled | 4:14 | |
by what happens to the price level. | 4:19 | |
When you come to real GNP, | 4:22 | |
there also was a fashionable forecast | 4:24 | |
and I should point out | 4:26 | |
that this last year, | 4:28 | |
for once at least, | 4:32 | |
the government joined in with the crowd | 4:33 | |
and the forecast by the Nixon Counsel of Economic Advisors | 4:36 | |
and the President's Economic Report of February of 1972, | 4:40 | |
is pretty much in the same ballpark | 4:46 | |
as the fashionable forecast. | 4:48 | |
Now, there were exceptions. | 4:50 | |
There were some people who were more bearish. | 4:51 | |
There were very few people | 4:55 | |
who were more bullish than the truth, | 4:57 | |
and as a matter of fact, the fashionable forecast, | 4:59 | |
which came very near to the truth wavered | 5:02 | |
and most of the people were shaving their numbers | 5:06 | |
down at about the time that the President | 5:09 | |
was making his February report | 5:11 | |
between the previous November and February. | 5:13 | |
There was a little bit of a war of nerves. | 5:16 | |
But most of them, I think, regained their confidence. | 5:18 | |
It's always easy to remember your own triumphs | 5:25 | |
but as I went back to listen to the tapes | 5:28 | |
that I made on this subject for this series, | 5:31 | |
I have to be thankful | 5:37 | |
that 1972 has been one of the better years. | 5:41 | |
As a matter of fact, in early March | 5:43 | |
I regained my confidence | 5:48 | |
and gave some of the most bullish numbers | 5:51 | |
that could still be called | 5:54 | |
within the ballpark of fashionable forecast, | 5:57 | |
and even then, I was one or two billion dollars, | 5:59 | |
what is that, a 10th of a percent, | 6:05 | |
too modest and moderate in my forecast. | 6:08 | |
Well, I'm of course kidding. | 6:13 | |
Every forecast, even when it's almost on the nose, | 6:17 | |
consists of some canceling errors | 6:21 | |
and I did not realize that the behavior of prices | 6:24 | |
would be quite so good as it has been this year. | 6:29 | |
The superficial view of economic history | 6:35 | |
must certainly say that the price control experiment | 6:37 | |
by the Nixon administration, in phase two and phase three, | 6:43 | |
has been a smashing success. | 6:46 | |
It not only has been a success on the surface | 6:49 | |
because prices have risen less | 6:52 | |
than most regression equations estimated they would, | 6:54 | |
and less than the bulk of the forecasters said they would. | 6:57 | |
But I think in addition, the very success of the program | 7:03 | |
gave the government policy makers the courage | 7:07 | |
to be more expansionary than they would otherwise have been. | 7:11 | |
Now, whether or not we'll pay for that | 7:15 | |
in some way in the future, that was a very good thing | 7:17 | |
for the pace of employment, and production, | 7:21 | |
and real output, and profits | 7:24 | |
in 1972 | 7:29 | |
itself. | 7:32 | |
Well, flushed with the false confidence | 7:34 | |
that comes from a recent, correct forecast, | 7:39 | |
what does the pack say for the year ahead? | 7:44 | |
Crudely speaking, the 100 billion dollar increase number | 7:50 | |
is still worth while for you to keep in mind, | 7:55 | |
but it seems to be the lower limit of any of the forecasts | 7:57 | |
and some of them go up to 119 billion. | 8:02 | |
Now, I'm going to discuss in detail, | 8:07 | |
five different computer forecasts, | 8:11 | |
or quasi computer forecasts. | 8:15 | |
I will give you my evaluation | 8:19 | |
of the strengths and weaknesses of each of these, | 8:21 | |
and I'll try to cover, as best I can, | 8:24 | |
the impressions I have about less detailed forecasts. | 8:27 | |
For example, I'm going to be less | 8:33 | |
informed than I should be | 8:39 | |
on what the monetarists are forecasting. | 8:41 | |
That's because I haven't been able to get | 8:46 | |
a detailed forecasts. | 8:49 | |
This is not peculiar to this year | 8:51 | |
because the monetarists put great emphasis | 8:56 | |
on what's going to happen to the money supply | 9:00 | |
and of course, we don't have very good forecasts | 9:03 | |
of what's going to happen to the money supply. | 9:06 | |
So, we have to proceed with the half loaf of bread. | 9:08 | |
I won't call it a stone, but it's not a full loaf of bread | 9:14 | |
of hypothetical statements if the Federal Reserve | 9:18 | |
comes to its senses and keeps the money supply growing | 9:24 | |
at such and such a rate then the indicated increase | 9:27 | |
in money GNP will be such and such. | 9:30 | |
Well, I'll try to fill in, as best I can, | 9:34 | |
from what I've heard about the Federal Reserve Bank | 9:36 | |
of St. Louis thinking, what I've heard about the Argus | 9:40 | |
Organization monetarists theorists general slant, | 9:46 | |
what I've heard about the monetarist views | 9:51 | |
of the First National Citi Bank, and some other people | 9:53 | |
who have gained reputations as monetarists, | 9:58 | |
but who also do attempt to make the month to month, | 10:04 | |
and quarter to quarter forecasting. | 10:07 | |
Who are the five who have prepared these models? | 10:11 | |
Well, there are no surprises there. | 10:16 | |
I'm sticking to the Wharton School Model, | 10:18 | |
of the University of Pennsylvania under the able direction | 10:21 | |
of Lawrence Klein, who has been a pioneer in this country | 10:25 | |
in macro models. | 10:29 | |
Then we have the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Model. | 10:33 | |
I believe this is their 20th year of formal forecasting. | 10:37 | |
Of course, once again, we run into | 10:42 | |
the spore of Dr. Lawrence Klein | 10:44 | |
because I believe that it was in the years | 10:46 | |
that he was at the University of Michigan | 10:50 | |
that this effort got under way. | 10:52 | |
However, Professor Katona, with his psychological insights | 10:53 | |
has been part of that group. | 10:59 | |
Professor Dan Suits, who is no longer | 11:02 | |
at the University of Michigan, has been part of that group. | 11:05 | |
And of course, the current forecasters | 11:10 | |
carry on. | 11:16 | |
Those are two university models. | 11:18 | |
Let's now turn to the groves of commercial consulting. | 11:21 | |
I shall refer to the Data Resources Incorporated Model | 11:30 | |
of what's going to come. | 11:34 | |
That's under the able direction of Professor Otto Eckstein | 11:35 | |
of Harvard University. | 11:40 | |
A fourth model that I shall refer to is that of | 11:42 | |
Townsend-Greenspan. | 11:46 | |
Listeners to these tapes have heard me sing the praises | 11:49 | |
of Alan Greenspan as a close, and careful, | 11:53 | |
and astute watcher of trends in the American economy. | 11:57 | |
And then finally from Princeton, | 12:03 | |
I'm going to report on a lone wolf forecaster, | 12:08 | |
former student of mine actually, Professor Ray Fair. | 12:11 | |
What's interesting about his particular method | 12:16 | |
of forecasting, is that he eschews all judgment. | 12:18 | |
He does not wind up the coefficients of his equations | 12:22 | |
depending upon how his model has been doing recently. | 12:25 | |
All that he does do, is use the latest data | 12:29 | |
to reestimate in a perfectly mechanical fashion, | 12:33 | |
that a robot could do, the coefficients of his model, | 12:36 | |
and on that basis he makes a forecast. | 12:40 | |
And he's written a book published by Heath and Company, | 12:43 | |
I believe, which makes a strong point that one should give | 12:45 | |
non-judgemental forecasting an important and prominent role | 12:51 | |
in the forecasting picture. | 12:57 | |
So in a sense, the Fair Model | 12:59 | |
tells us just what the aggregate data | 13:04 | |
themselves seem to be saying | 13:08 | |
if we interpret them in terms | 13:12 | |
of their past patterns of experience. | 13:14 | |
I'll talk primarily about what's going to happen | 13:19 | |
to money GNP. | 13:21 | |
That's the catch all of final goods and services | 13:22 | |
in the American economy. | 13:26 | |
I think it's a single number most talked about. | 13:28 | |
But of course, it contains the effects of inflation in it | 13:32 | |
changing price tags as measured by a price index, | 13:36 | |
the so called implicit price deflator, | 13:41 | |
and correcting for changes in that implicit price deflator, | 13:45 | |
we get changes in the real GNP, | 13:49 | |
and I'll comment on that in detail. | 13:52 | |
That of course, involves me in commenting | 13:54 | |
on the various estimates that have to be made about prices. | 13:57 | |
I know that many of my listeners will be interested | 14:02 | |
in the outlook for profits. | 14:05 | |
Certainly, if your primary reason | 14:08 | |
for following forecasts closely | 14:13 | |
is because you're in the securities business | 14:15 | |
and you're interested in the outlook for common stock prices | 14:17 | |
and you're asking yourself whether the fact | 14:22 | |
that the Dow Jones Index finally broke through 1000, | 14:24 | |
is an omen of good or bad things to come, | 14:28 | |
that in my judgment, one of the most important things | 14:31 | |
you will want to know, is what's going to happen | 14:34 | |
to corporate profits in 1973. | 14:36 | |
Alas, you must know really what's going to happen to profits | 14:40 | |
in 1974, or at least form a reason judgment about that | 14:44 | |
because the market is always so very forward looking. | 14:47 | |
Those of us who have an interest in welfare of people | 14:54 | |
must be preoccupied with the unemployment rate | 14:59 | |
and I'll report in some detail | 15:04 | |
on what the various experts think abut its future range, | 15:06 | |
and finally, what's going to happen to interest rates. | 15:14 | |
This is a question worth answering for its own sake | 15:18 | |
but it also is an important factor in any estimate | 15:22 | |
of what's going to happen to the level | 15:26 | |
of common stock prices because the short term interest rates | 15:28 | |
and the long term interest rates | 15:32 | |
on bonds, and savings accounts, | 15:34 | |
and commercial paper, provide alternatives | 15:37 | |
for portfolio investment to common stocks, | 15:40 | |
and therefore, it's rational to expect | 15:43 | |
that the price earnings multiple, | 15:46 | |
which Wall Street will put upon | 15:49 | |
the predicted earnings that we all come up with, | 15:52 | |
will go down | 15:55 | |
if interest rates go up sharply. | 15:59 | |
Well, this year as always, | 16:03 | |
we have somebody way out ahead of the crowd, | 16:08 | |
and to my surprise, | 16:11 | |
this year it's the University of Michigan. | 16:13 | |
The University of Michigan thinks that the | 16:17 | |
money GNP | 16:22 | |
for 1973 | 16:23 | |
will be | 16:26 | |
1269. | 16:28 | |
That's | 16:31 | |
more than one and a quarter trillion. | 16:34 | |
1,269.73 is what their computer output forecasts. | 16:36 | |
That's a 10.5, 10.4% increase | 16:44 | |
in money GNP over 1972. | 16:49 | |
That is a definite stepping up | 16:56 | |
of the rate of advance | 17:00 | |
of the money GNP | 17:04 | |
and when this number came out of their machine, | 17:06 | |
out of their computer, | 17:11 | |
I think that | 17:12 | |
the current custodians | 17:15 | |
of the Ann Arbor Model, | 17:19 | |
and by the way, it is a new model. | 17:21 | |
It's under the general direction of Saul Hymans | 17:24 | |
and Harold Shapiro, | 17:28 | |
and Lester Taylor's also connected | 17:30 | |
with the operation. | 17:34 | |
They must have been aghast because they come off | 17:36 | |
flat-footedly and build into their model, a tax increase. | 17:40 | |
Now, you know that various pungents, | 17:45 | |
I'm afraid I was one of them, | 17:48 | |
have said that 1973 is almost sure to be | 17:50 | |
a year of tax increase, | 17:56 | |
but you also know that the President Nixon, | 17:58 | |
prior to his reelection, and subsequent to his reelection, | 18:01 | |
has affirmed and reaffirmed that he has no intention | 18:07 | |
of increasing federal tax rates in 1973. | 18:11 | |
According to the Michigan group, the economy is going to be | 18:18 | |
so buoyant, so buoyant, so boisterous, | 18:24 | |
so threateningly inflationary and strong, | 18:28 | |
that all men of good sense of any political party | 18:33 | |
will want to put in a tax increase in '73, | 18:39 | |
and that is built into their model, | 18:44 | |
and that does hold down the exuberance of the model, | 18:46 | |
but did I say hold down? | 18:49 | |
It holds it down to a 120 billion increase | 18:52 | |
to a 10.5% annual rate of increase | 18:57 | |
and of course, without that tax increase, | 19:02 | |
they would get a still higher number. | 19:06 | |
That's the most expansionary. | 19:10 | |
I hesitate to say most optimistic because there, of course, | 19:12 | |
could be some problems involved in an economy | 19:16 | |
which is over heating once again. | 19:20 | |
Who's the low man on the totem pole? | 19:24 | |
The low man on the totem pole this time | 19:26 | |
is Professor Ray Fair from Princeton. | 19:28 | |
Using no judgment, not winding up or winding down | 19:32 | |
any of his coefficients, but just letting the facts | 19:36 | |
tell their own story so to speak, | 19:38 | |
According to the model which he has followed for some time, | 19:40 | |
he comes up with just about a 100 billion dollar increase, | 19:44 | |
1250.3 is his actual forecast for calendar 1973. | 19:49 | |
That's an 8.8% increase and you might think, | 19:55 | |
what's the difference between an 8.8% and a 10.4% increase? | 19:59 | |
Just itsy-bitsy little 1.6% but I can assure you. | 20:04 | |
That's the name of the game as far as forecasting, | 20:10 | |
that that's a tremendous range. | 20:13 | |
Now, our inaccuracy in forecasting | 20:16 | |
is fully as large as that and larger, | 20:18 | |
but remember, that each of these forecasts | 20:23 | |
is going to have realty spread around it. | 20:27 | |
We don't know yet in which direction | 20:31 | |
by a very considerable amount and the center of the bullseye | 20:33 | |
around which Ray Fair thinks reality is going to spread | 20:38 | |
is an 8.8% increase and it's quite a higher thing | 20:42 | |
to have that center around 10.4%. | 20:47 | |
Well, that's those are the outliers. | 20:53 | |
Where does the crowd come? | 20:56 | |
Actually, the Wharton School after being | 20:59 | |
having a very good run for its money | 21:04 | |
in terms of forecasting for the last couple of years, | 21:07 | |
is not very different from Ray Fair. | 21:10 | |
Where he calls for an 8.8%, they call for an 8.88% | 21:14 | |
to 1252.8 which you can see | 21:18 | |
is just 2.5 billion dollars more than Ray Fair. | 21:22 | |
Well, Data Resources and Townsend-Greenspan, | 21:28 | |
the consulting business firms, non-academic, | 21:31 | |
they have a more moderate increase to around 9.5%. | 21:36 | |
That's still a considerable increase. | 21:41 | |
Remember, it's in the order of magnitude | 21:43 | |
of 108, | 21:46 | |
109, | 21:49 | |
110 billion. | 21:49 | |
Where do I come out? | 21:52 | |
It seems to me, that if 100 billion was the proper number | 21:56 | |
last year, that 110 is the proper round number this year, | 22:00 | |
and if you ask me which way | 22:06 | |
would you expect to be wrong, | 22:10 | |
you think that it's more likely that if you're wrong, | 22:14 | |
the numbers will be higher, | 22:16 | |
or if you're wrong the numbers will be lower. | 22:18 | |
I guess in all candor, I'd have to say | 22:21 | |
that I would be afraid that the numbers would be higher | 22:23 | |
than the 110 billion rather than lower. | 22:24 | |
What does this mean in terms of real GNP? | 22:28 | |
Now, again we have the most optimistic, | 22:36 | |
the University of Michigan. | 22:38 | |
They have a whopping 7.1% increase in real output | 22:40 | |
in calendar 1973 over calendar 1972. | 22:46 | |
No wonder that they have the most | 22:51 | |
optimistic unemployment numbers. | 22:53 | |
By the end of 1973, they have unemployment down to 4.2%. | 22:57 | |
More over, it stays at 4.2% for the following half year. | 23:04 | |
That is considerably less than anybody else. | 23:10 | |
Everybody else thinks | 23:16 | |
that unemployment will be about 5.3% or 5%. | 23:17 | |
I'm speaking now by the end of 1973. | 23:22 | |
5%, 4.9%, 5%, 4.8%, | 23:29 | |
So you see, Michigan is away from the crowd. | 23:34 | |
I do not believe that I can go along | 23:40 | |
with the 7.1% increase in output, | 23:43 | |
which I think would be too much for the system to stand. | 23:46 | |
I agree that you would begin | 23:51 | |
to have a clamor for a tax increase, | 23:54 | |
but I can't believe that with that much steam in the boiler, | 23:57 | |
that the interest rate, and profit, and price prediction | 24:01 | |
of the Michigan model can be correct. | 24:07 | |
Now, I don't mean to be critical of them. | 24:09 | |
I'm sure that there's is a consistent picture | 24:11 | |
but I'm trying to give you my hunch. | 24:13 | |
What about inflation? | 24:16 | |
Well, the administration apparently, | 24:18 | |
has come close even if it hasn't quite realized its goal | 24:21 | |
for this year of having the inflation down | 24:27 | |
to between two and 3% by the end of year. | 24:31 | |
The important thing for us looking ahead is, | 24:34 | |
what do the experts see for inflation | 24:37 | |
and nobody, of all these experts, | 24:39 | |
sees inflation more than at a 3.5% rate | 24:41 | |
in 1973 and in 1974, | 24:45 | |
and I must say, given the strength of what the experts | 24:49 | |
are forecasting, it seems to me | 24:52 | |
that that is overly optimistic | 24:54 | |
and I would rather myself, given this much strength, | 24:56 | |
bet on the rate of inflation moving up | 25:00 | |
towards three, and 3.75%, and even toward 4%. | 25:04 | |
This is always, of course, with the GNP deflator. | 25:09 | |
I'm assuming, therefore, that there will be strong pressure | 25:12 | |
to keep price controls in some form, | 25:16 | |
and that the price controls will not be working out | 25:19 | |
quite as well as they have now. | 25:22 | |
I must hurry. | 25:24 | |
On interest rates, everybody sees interest rates going up. | 25:25 | |
Short term interest rates, if they now | 25:30 | |
are in the neighborhood of 5%, | 25:33 | |
or of you use Treasury Bill rates, | 25:38 | |
lower than that four and a third percent. | 25:40 | |
All of these rates are to go up | 25:44 | |
by more than a 100 bases points | 25:47 | |
in the year | 25:51 | |
so we'll be looking at commercial paper interest rates | 25:53 | |
in 1973, the end of 1973, of at about 6.25%, or 6.5% | 25:57 | |
and Treasury Bill rates at 5.25%. | 26:06 | |
I must go along with these general forecasts | 26:09 | |
and I'll even add to them in case I turn out | 26:12 | |
alas to be right that we won't do quite so well on prices. | 26:16 | |
Finally, what does all this imply for profits? | 26:21 | |
Profits before taxes this year, | 26:27 | |
are about | 26:30 | |
8988 billion | 26:32 | |
and everybody thinks that they'll go up to the neighborhood | 26:36 | |
of a 100 billion or more. | 26:40 | |
I noticed that Dr. Greenspan is a little less optimistic. | 26:43 | |
He has profits not quite reaching 100. | 26:48 | |
But even the Wharton Model, the Michigan model, | 26:51 | |
both have profits at 105. | 26:55 | |
Now, I go along with these profit increases. | 26:58 | |
These are profit increases of the order of magnitude | 27:04 | |
of 15%. | 27:09 | |
I was a little too optimistic in thinking that profits | 27:12 | |
after taxes this year would go up by as much as 20%. | 27:15 | |
I think that 16 or 17% will be more like it, | 27:20 | |
but I think we have another good year | 27:23 | |
increase in profits ahead of us. | 27:24 | |
Now, my final word is that in order | 27:26 | |
to forecast the period ahead, you really want to know | 27:29 | |
what's going to happen in the period after the period ahead. | 27:32 | |
And as I've looked over these forecasts, | 27:36 | |
and as I have discussed in detail with you how they differ, | 27:39 | |
I must now point out the curious fact | 27:46 | |
that if you say, what will we be saying a year from now | 27:48 | |
about the period just to come in the first half of 1974, | 27:52 | |
what you'll find is that most of the forecasters | 27:58 | |
have about the same forecast from the end of 1973 | 28:01 | |
to the middle of 1974, and generally speaking, | 28:07 | |
almost all of them show a very distinct tapering down | 28:11 | |
of the real growth of the economy. | 28:15 | |
Data Resources is the most optimistic | 28:18 | |
for a sustained boom, but even Data Resources | 28:20 | |
has real output growing only enough to keep up | 28:24 | |
with our population, and labor force growth, | 28:27 | |
and productivity growth, at about four and a third percent | 28:30 | |
in the period that I'm speaking of. | 28:33 | |
Most of the forecasters have real output | 28:35 | |
growing at only 3.5%. | 28:38 | |
Let me wrap it all up. | 28:42 | |
It seems to me | 28:45 | |
that 1973 is going to be a very good year | 28:47 | |
for the real output of the economy, | 28:52 | |
for the growth of the economy. | 28:57 | |
It's going to be quite a good job outlook year. | 28:58 | |
I think that it is going to be not such a cheerful year | 29:02 | |
as far as the control of inflation is concerned, | 29:06 | |
but let's make no mistake about it. | 29:09 | |
We're not talking about the raging | 29:11 | |
and accelerating inflationary dangers, | 29:13 | |
such as were typical of 1968 and 1969. | 29:16 | |
And so, I think for the policy decider, | 29:21 | |
I'm now thinking of President Nixon, | 29:26 | |
it seems to me that he comes into his second term | 29:29 | |
in much better shape than he came into his first term, | 29:33 | |
and this is going to be a relatively easy time for policy. | 29:37 | |
Well, next year we'll see. | 29:42 | |
- | If you have any comments or questions | 29:45 |
for Professor Samuelson, address them | 29:47 | |
to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated | 29:49 | |
166 East Superior Street, Chicago, Illinois 60611. | 29:51 |
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