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- | Hello again and welcome as Professor Paul Samuelson | 0:02 |
reports on the current economic scene. | 0:04 | |
This biweekly series is produced and recorded by | 0:07 | |
Instructional Dynamics Incorporated of Chicago. | 0:09 | |
Dr. Samuelson we're now in the final month of | 0:13 | |
1969 what would you like to talk about today? | 0:15 | |
- | In a few days I'll be making the more or less | 0:18 |
formal forecast of economic conditions for the coming year | 0:22 | |
of 1970 so today I'd like to | 0:26 | |
stay away from that subject | 0:30 | |
and discuss some other important issues. | 0:32 | |
First a subscriber has asked me | 0:37 | |
how I stand on | 0:42 | |
the following problem. | 0:45 | |
I've pointed out in some of my earlier tapes that | 0:49 | |
the only way that we seem to know how to moderate | 0:54 | |
the inflation is by engineering some amount of retardation. | 0:59 | |
And the more retardation we | 1:05 | |
contrive presumably the greater | 1:10 | |
will be the moderation of the inflation. | 1:12 | |
In the short run therefore, there is a trade off or seems to | 1:16 | |
be a trade off between say the rate of unemployment | 1:19 | |
and the rate of inflation. | 1:23 | |
But my subscriber says Professor Friedman | 1:26 | |
in commenting on the same matter | 1:31 | |
said and I hope that he is quoting | 1:34 | |
the other tape more or less correctly. | 1:38 | |
That Professor Friedman agreed pretty much with what it was | 1:42 | |
that I had said. | 1:47 | |
But he thought that there were certain implicit things | 1:50 | |
that I should have said. | 1:53 | |
And that if you | 1:55 | |
took those into account that would change the thrust | 1:59 | |
of the observation. | 2:02 | |
Now I gather that the argument went something like | 2:03 | |
the following. | 2:07 | |
Professor Samuelson speaks of a trade off between | 2:10 | |
unemployment and inflation | 2:13 | |
but in fact there is | 2:17 | |
no such trade off between them in the longer run. | 2:20 | |
There really is no alternative choice | 2:24 | |
between more unemployment and more inflation | 2:29 | |
because over the longer run you're going to have | 2:32 | |
about the same amount of unemployment. | 2:34 | |
The only choice is when you're going to have it. | 2:37 | |
Now do I agree with that? | 2:40 | |
Having omitted to make that observation myself | 2:43 | |
would I not want to amend the record and now affirm | 2:47 | |
my agreement with that position? | 2:52 | |
With respect I do not agree. | 2:57 | |
I see some merit in the view that the unemployment | 3:02 | |
at different periods of time | 3:06 | |
the unemployments are related. | 3:09 | |
For example I have long argued in writings and | 3:12 | |
have mentioned on these tapes | 3:16 | |
that in some degree the sluggish 1950s which were more | 3:19 | |
or less contrived or countenance or engineered | 3:25 | |
by the Eisenhower Administration did have something | 3:28 | |
to do with making the problem easier for | 3:32 | |
John F. Kennedy at the beginning of 1961 to | 3:35 | |
have a very long expansion. | 3:41 | |
And so I agree in fact to put it in more technical | 3:43 | |
terms we have in the short run a so called Phillips Curve. | 3:47 | |
This Phillips Curve is a rather superficial concept | 3:52 | |
of description but its a pretty good concept | 3:57 | |
of description I think for the short run on which | 4:01 | |
you are to plot the amount of unemployment | 4:05 | |
against the rate of price or wage increase. | 4:09 | |
Now in the longer run I don't think you stay on the | 4:13 | |
same Phillips Curve. | 4:16 | |
I think that there is what the engineer would call | 4:17 | |
historicist an influence of the past. | 4:20 | |
And any sort of a realistic Phillips Curve would | 4:23 | |
want I think to be some kind of a weighted average. | 4:26 | |
Probably with diminishing weights as you | 4:32 | |
go into the lagged past of past | 4:35 | |
looseness or unemployment in the labor market. | 4:39 | |
And so in the longer run the Phillips Curve tends to twist. | 4:44 | |
I don't suppose that we can be expected to have visual minds | 4:48 | |
and be geometry wizards so I'll simply | 4:56 | |
leave it at the statement that | 5:01 | |
the curve tends to become more vertical. | 5:04 | |
It tends to move in a clockwise direction in the longer run. | 5:08 | |
However this does not mean that I think the evidence | 5:14 | |
is available to | 5:19 | |
support a much stronger view | 5:22 | |
which is that there is a fundamental constant | 5:25 | |
amount of unemployment over time. | 5:28 | |
And this law of conservation of unemployment | 5:30 | |
if it existed ought to be elevated to the dignity | 5:33 | |
not quite of the law of conservation of energy | 5:36 | |
the first law of thermodynamics, | 5:39 | |
but certainly it would be a very powerful uniformity | 5:42 | |
to know about and to take a count of if it did exist. | 5:46 | |
However I do not see how in | 5:51 | |
the evidence one time of | 5:56 | |
history that we have we can have any confidence in | 5:57 | |
asserting that there is a natural rate of unemployment. | 6:03 | |
Before rejecting that view however let me give a | 6:07 | |
bit of evidence in its favor. | 6:11 | |
I must say that this bit of evidence carries some | 6:13 | |
weight with me. | 6:16 | |
It doesn't convert me to the position but it tends | 6:17 | |
to explain to me something about the long run | 6:21 | |
shifts in the Phillips Curve. | 6:24 | |
According to the argument that I now wanna make | 6:27 | |
we should think of an existing amount of inflation | 6:31 | |
as being more or less anticipated. | 6:36 | |
If the inflation has been going on for a very long time | 6:39 | |
at about the same percentage rate we can suppose that | 6:42 | |
it has been well anticipated and if it's a very | 6:46 | |
new inflation we can suppose that only the cannyist | 6:50 | |
and most sensitive people are alert to it. | 6:54 | |
And a lot of other people are asleep at the switch | 6:58 | |
and just haven't noticed it. | 7:00 | |
Now according to this view the behavior of unemployment | 7:01 | |
and prices should be related to the discrepancy between | 7:08 | |
the actual amount of inflation going on and the | 7:12 | |
amount which has been commonly anticipated. | 7:15 | |
Now if the inflation were completely anticipated. | 7:19 | |
So goes the argument then the inflation doesn't do anything | 7:23 | |
for you, with respect to lowering unemployment. | 7:28 | |
I think here a new argument has been brought in and | 7:32 | |
I do not go along with that. | 7:38 | |
I cannot myself develop a model which seems to me to be | 7:42 | |
a realistic which operates solely on the difference | 7:48 | |
between some kind of anticipated rate of inflation. | 7:52 | |
As measured let's say operationally by some | 7:56 | |
kind of a distributed lag of past price increases | 8:00 | |
and the actual rate. | 8:05 | |
And so I don't believe | 8:08 | |
that anyone can believe that there was | 8:13 | |
a certain amount of unemployment which we were destined | 8:17 | |
to have in the 1950s and the 1960s. | 8:19 | |
I'd like to know what that number was by the way. | 8:22 | |
And that because Eisenhower chose not to have | 8:25 | |
it in the 1950s not to have the high employment | 8:28 | |
and took the high unemployment. | 8:33 | |
Then Kennedy was allowed to have just that amount | 8:35 | |
that was left over in the 1960s without creating | 8:39 | |
inflation and by 1965 it wasn't his luck that had run | 8:44 | |
out but his overdraft on the bank | 8:49 | |
had run out. | 8:53 | |
Well now I don't know what that | 8:54 | |
average rate of unemployment is | 8:57 | |
I think that its gratuitous to look back | 8:58 | |
in history measure as you certainly can ex post after | 9:02 | |
the fact how much unemployment there was in 1950 and 1960. | 9:05 | |
But I think it is an act of scientific arrogance to | 9:10 | |
extrapolate from that and say that that | 9:14 | |
was pretty much what had to be. | 9:16 | |
It need ant be that the law of conservation of unemployment | 9:19 | |
if somebody is rash enough to hold that view holds | 9:22 | |
precisely on a decade basis. | 9:26 | |
But I would remake my argument if somebody says that you | 9:27 | |
should use dozens of years as your couple dozen years | 9:31 | |
for example as your units. | 9:35 | |
So I sympathize with the problem that current | 9:39 | |
administration has which is to moderate the rate of | 9:43 | |
inflation, to pick the proper dosage between how | 9:47 | |
much unemployment, how severe a national bureau recession | 9:52 | |
they wish to have. | 9:56 | |
But I don't think I want to amend my earlier remarks | 9:59 | |
and say that there is no choice. | 10:04 | |
That there always is the same | 10:05 | |
amount of unemployment over time. | 10:06 | |
However in leaving this topic let me say this. | 10:09 | |
Suppose the theory that I have been criticizing | 10:13 | |
and rejecting were true. | 10:16 | |
What follows from that? | 10:20 | |
I think that you find in social events in | 10:22 | |
political behavior in the | 10:28 | |
economic calculus of | 10:31 | |
democratic voters something like | 10:34 | |
a time preference. | 10:39 | |
We all hate war but we would prefer to have any war | 10:41 | |
that has to be in the future rather than in the present. | 10:46 | |
So just as a hamburger on Tuesday, is not worth | 10:49 | |
as much as a hamburger on hand today Friday say. | 10:54 | |
So future good things | 10:57 | |
aren't worth quite as much as present good things. | 11:00 | |
If that's the case and there were over the longer | 11:04 | |
run a certain average amount of unemployment | 11:08 | |
that has to be enjoyed or endured | 11:12 | |
depending upon which verb you want to use. | 11:15 | |
I think one could set up a model which would represent | 11:18 | |
pretty well the behavior of electorates in which | 11:21 | |
you tried to maximize | 11:25 | |
a sum | 11:28 | |
averaged out over | 11:32 | |
a long period of time of well being as measured | 11:33 | |
by the rate of growth and the rate of unemployment. | 11:37 | |
But with a systematic preference for the good things | 11:41 | |
to happen early and the bad things other things being | 11:45 | |
equal to happen a little bit late. | 11:49 | |
In that case accepting the notion of an inevitable | 11:51 | |
average amount of unemployment the rational | 11:55 | |
solution to the maximum problem that I have just discussed | 11:59 | |
would be for us to always have a little more steam in the | 12:04 | |
boiler than would be optimal in the steady state | 12:10 | |
because we are so to speak borrowing high employment | 12:14 | |
now against the future and we have to pay | 12:20 | |
back for it and pay back for it in perpetuity | 12:25 | |
for our systematic time preference by enduring | 12:28 | |
a more unemployment on the average in the future. | 12:33 | |
And this would be a rational solution to the problem | 12:37 | |
under present behavior. | 12:40 | |
I mean under the present assumption about systematic | 12:43 | |
time preference. | 12:46 | |
Now let me stand back a little and see what that | 12:47 | |
rather high falutin' quasi mathematical | 12:51 | |
consideration leads to. | 12:54 | |
I think it leads to a notion something like the following. | 12:56 | |
We're in a state of flux in our democracy. | 13:02 | |
We don't know what the future brings. | 13:05 | |
We are I hope winding up one rather difficult | 13:08 | |
and not completely popular war. | 13:14 | |
We may find ourselves in a new war in the future. | 13:16 | |
I hope not but one cannot guard against that. | 13:21 | |
But life is very uncertain between now and 10 | 13:25 | |
years from now and 15 years from now and 20 years from now. | 13:28 | |
And therefore perhaps one should put off to the day | 13:32 | |
the evil thereof and live more in the present. | 13:36 | |
Should one for example invite because by anybody's theory | 13:43 | |
this is a possibility. | 13:50 | |
Should one invite violence in the ghetto as | 13:52 | |
retardation and recession causes there to be more and | 13:56 | |
more unemployment? | 14:01 | |
Now it may be that its buying something for us in the | 14:03 | |
future but by the time the future comes all bets may be off. | 14:05 | |
We may be in a quite different situation and therefore | 14:10 | |
the very uncertainty of modern life and here I | 14:14 | |
mean modern political life. | 14:18 | |
Seems to me to justify in a sense this systematic | 14:20 | |
preference for the present over the future. | 14:26 | |
After all its always been considered one of the rational | 14:29 | |
reasons for time systematic time preference. | 14:32 | |
Preference for the present as against the future | 14:37 | |
that you're going to not live forever. | 14:39 | |
You remember the parable I suppose its from Esop that | 14:44 | |
we're all brought up on as children | 14:49 | |
about the ant and the bee. | 14:51 | |
No its not the ant and the bee, | 14:54 | |
its the grasshopper and either the ant or the bee. | 14:56 | |
The grasshopper is a lazy fellow who plays all | 15:01 | |
summer long and the bee is the industrious fellow | 15:04 | |
who gathers honey and stores it away in honeycombs | 15:08 | |
against the vicissitudes of winter. | 15:12 | |
And we as children are supposed to learn what | 15:15 | |
poor Richard's almanac would teach or what the | 15:20 | |
Puritan ethic tended to stress the virtues of thrift. | 15:24 | |
Now in this context I'm not going to speak out against | 15:28 | |
thrift but I just want to mention the | 15:31 | |
answer given by the naturalist to this problem. | 15:35 | |
He says very sensible for grasshoppers to do what | 15:37 | |
they are doing because they're all | 15:40 | |
going to be dead in the winter. | 15:41 | |
And it would be like piling up treasures in heaven | 15:43 | |
for them to pile up things and by the same | 15:48 | |
definition of what survives | 15:53 | |
and how evolution has | 15:56 | |
made this species accommodate itself to its | 15:59 | |
ecological niche its sensible for the bee in its case | 16:02 | |
to be doing what it's doing. | 16:06 | |
Well we are a little bit in the modern world alas and lack | 16:08 | |
like that grasshopper. | 16:12 | |
Its not certain that we won't be here. | 16:15 | |
Its not certain that the future won't be serene. | 16:17 | |
But there's a good chance of it. | 16:22 | |
And so in these uncertain times I think a case | 16:25 | |
could be made, and any case I believe the listeners | 16:30 | |
of this tape will understand better the intellectual | 16:32 | |
case of those with whom perhaps they disagree. | 16:36 | |
I have mind at this time the young people who | 16:39 | |
increasingly in our universities show an impatience | 16:44 | |
about the speed of reform if you take | 16:48 | |
this matter into consideration. | 16:51 | |
Well now I've given myself the cue for the second | 16:55 | |
topic that I wanted to speak about today. | 16:58 | |
That cue was in the mention of | 17:01 | |
young people in our universities. | 17:04 | |
I participated a couple of weeks | 17:08 | |
ago at an American Bankers Symposium. | 17:11 | |
This symposium by the American Bankers Association | 17:16 | |
was held in Washington at the Mayflower hotel. | 17:19 | |
Its one of a number that annually | 17:23 | |
or at perotic intervals | 17:27 | |
they hold and it was I think regarded by those | 17:30 | |
who attended as one of the more interesting ones. | 17:34 | |
Now let me tell you about it. | 17:36 | |
The general topic of the meeting was economic | 17:38 | |
understanding for the future. | 17:42 | |
And in particular my assignment was to talk about that. | 17:45 | |
I was asked I suppose as a textbook writer in economics. | 17:49 | |
As a teacher of undergraduates and graduates. | 17:52 | |
But I probably wasn't asked there as a teacher of graduate | 17:56 | |
students but as a teacher of undergraduates. | 17:59 | |
To talk on the problem of economic understanding | 18:02 | |
for the future. | 18:06 | |
And as happens in the American Bankers Association | 18:07 | |
because they work out the agenda very carefully for this. | 18:10 | |
Quite a number of questions were put to me about which | 18:14 | |
problems are solved or unsolved that | 18:18 | |
are coming up in the future. | 18:21 | |
Now I was extremely happy to talk about those problems. | 18:24 | |
But in fact I found myself being carried away | 18:29 | |
for the bulk of my written remarks and | 18:33 | |
my oral remarks by a related topic. | 18:36 | |
President John Coleman of Havorford College was the | 18:42 | |
person given charge of preparing the program. | 18:48 | |
He was the one who actually invited me to speak. | 18:53 | |
Now Jack Coleman is an old friend of mine. | 18:55 | |
Actually a former colleague here at MIT. | 18:58 | |
He went on from there from here to Carnegie Tech where | 19:01 | |
he was a professor in industrial relations. | 19:06 | |
Became a Dean and then he went on from there to | 19:08 | |
the Ford Foundation where he was concerned with | 19:10 | |
minority problems, particularly problems of | 19:13 | |
the black handicapped community. | 19:15 | |
And then received a call to the | 19:18 | |
presidency of Haverford College. | 19:20 | |
And I think he's found this an | 19:22 | |
extremely interesting occupation. | 19:23 | |
Now you know people are not universally keen these | 19:27 | |
days to be presidents of colleges because its a pretty | 19:31 | |
tough firing line that you're on there. | 19:34 | |
Students are so to speak off the reservation. | 19:38 | |
They're very obstreperous we have sit-ins. | 19:42 | |
We have non violent and violent confrontations. | 19:45 | |
And so a good deal of my paper turned out to | 19:50 | |
talk about this problem of student frame of mind | 19:55 | |
and its bearing upon economic understanding for the | 19:59 | |
future and teaching. | 20:03 | |
And all of Jack Coleman's paper was on | 20:04 | |
this particular subject. | 20:08 | |
His was a very eloquent paper. | 20:10 | |
If anyone is interested these proceedings in due course | 20:13 | |
become published and | 20:18 | |
by writing to the American | 20:21 | |
Bankers Association in New York I'm | 20:22 | |
sure that you can get copies. | 20:24 | |
In Coleman's speech which as I say was very eloquently | 20:29 | |
written and very eloquently delivered. | 20:35 | |
He said that a modern youth is really great. | 20:38 | |
They're in a sense greater than we are because | 20:43 | |
they are very honest and they will not stand | 20:47 | |
for hypocrisy where as we of the older generation | 20:50 | |
talk about certain things but in fact we | 20:54 | |
condone a state of affairs which is contrary | 20:58 | |
to high ideals that we talk about. | 21:01 | |
And President Coleman more or less said | 21:05 | |
that the problem is really for us. | 21:08 | |
They don't have the problem so much as we | 21:12 | |
because they are in a sense solving their problem. | 21:15 | |
Now I shan't try to quote his paper. | 21:18 | |
I council you to get hold of it and read it | 21:22 | |
for its intrinsic interest. | 21:25 | |
But let me tell you what I talked about. | 21:28 | |
I mentioned that there are certain unsolved | 21:32 | |
problems of the future. | 21:35 | |
Certain problems where as a textbook writer | 21:37 | |
and as a communicator I wanna educate the public | 21:39 | |
on one of them as an example as a nicely solved problem | 21:42 | |
by in large is | 21:47 | |
the need to get some flexibility | 21:50 | |
in our foreign exchange rate mechanism. | 21:52 | |
All my listeners know this aspect of the problem. | 21:55 | |
Then I simply said that the academics | 22:00 | |
have for a long time thanks in good part to | 22:02 | |
Professor Milton Friedman have been ahead of the | 22:06 | |
men of affairs. | 22:08 | |
But the men of affairs have been moving over | 22:09 | |
in that direction and there remains a task | 22:11 | |
of education for the men in the street. | 22:14 | |
Then as a second problem which is far from | 22:18 | |
being solved, I mentioned that of the need for a so | 22:21 | |
called quote incomes policy, end of quote. | 22:24 | |
This isn't a very good name but its a name | 22:29 | |
for a problem namely how can a modern mixed | 22:32 | |
economy like ours or like those all over the world | 22:35 | |
simultaneously enjoy high employment, full employment | 22:40 | |
and reasonable price ability? | 22:43 | |
Almost no economy mixed economy in the world | 22:46 | |
seems to have been able to work | 22:49 | |
out a solution to that problem. | 22:52 | |
And here I said a quite different kind of communication | 22:54 | |
problem comes up. | 22:57 | |
Its not so much that we know something | 22:58 | |
and we have to package it and teach | 23:00 | |
it properly but how can you communicate | 23:02 | |
what you yourself don't know? | 23:05 | |
And we do not yet have at the frontier | 23:07 | |
of scientific research a body of agreed upon findings | 23:09 | |
which enables us to say the direction | 23:15 | |
in which this problem is to be solved. | 23:19 | |
I've just been editing a set of readings | 23:23 | |
for elementary students and I found | 23:26 | |
it very hard I may tell you to find a spokesman | 23:28 | |
for the view for direct wage and price controls. | 23:31 | |
I finally had to settle for Professor John Kenneth Galbreth. | 23:34 | |
Because he had | 23:37 | |
years ago actually in 1951 | 23:41 | |
testified in favor of price and wage controls. | 23:43 | |
And that was the best that I could do. | 23:46 | |
Well now in all of this I was responsive | 23:50 | |
to the particular questions put to me on the agenda. | 23:53 | |
But I said I must go on and talk about what concerns | 23:57 | |
me as a teacher of economics in 1969, | 24:02 | |
1970 looking at the current scene. | 24:07 | |
And that is my fear that a substantial fraction | 24:10 | |
of the finest minds of the younger generation | 24:14 | |
will simply tune out of economics. | 24:18 | |
And I gave a specific example. | 24:21 | |
Its an example that is only | 24:24 | |
one of many instances. | 24:27 | |
There is at Harvard University a course given in | 24:30 | |
quote radical economics. | 24:34 | |
It is not given with the economics department | 24:37 | |
label because the economics department | 24:39 | |
I think feels that it isn't quite up to their | 24:41 | |
particular standard. | 24:44 | |
So it has a social science sox ai label. | 24:46 | |
But its quite a popular course. | 24:50 | |
I have looked at the reading list for it. | 24:52 | |
It obviously unlike perhaps some such courses | 24:55 | |
has been prepared with great care. | 24:59 | |
The reading list is long, its carefully compiled. | 25:01 | |
And the committee that worked on it | 25:05 | |
shows a reasonable amount of input | 25:10 | |
and yet I expressed my concern. | 25:13 | |
Now why? | 25:14 | |
I said its my understanding in order to take this course | 25:15 | |
you do not have to have had an elementary course | 25:19 | |
in standard economics. | 25:23 | |
There's no prerequisite for the course. | 25:24 | |
And I think that's a shame I said because I think | 25:27 | |
you'd understand the criticisms made and be able | 25:31 | |
to evaluate them better if you had come already | 25:33 | |
prepared with such a elementary understanding. | 25:37 | |
But beyond that I thought there was a sad issue here. | 25:41 | |
Sad in my viewpoint. | 25:46 | |
To quote more or less what I said it was this. | 25:50 | |
My private nightmare is that | 25:53 | |
college in the field | 25:57 | |
of economics might become a cafeteria. | 25:58 | |
And at the counter there would be a broad spectrum of | 26:01 | |
offering if and this is a bit fanciful, you come | 26:04 | |
to college already imbued with fascist economics | 26:06 | |
but lets say very conservative short sleeves economics. | 26:10 | |
Then there exists a course for you to take which | 26:15 | |
will consolidate and confirm the views | 26:17 | |
that you had when you came to college. | 26:20 | |
If on the contrary you come with notions leading | 26:22 | |
towards radical economics then there is a course which | 26:26 | |
will confirm you in this particular view and if | 26:30 | |
by chance you happen to be a middle of the road | 26:32 | |
economist, then there will be a middle of the road | 26:35 | |
course and you can confirm that particular eclectic | 26:37 | |
position and I thought this was a sad thing. | 26:41 | |
Now my time is up. | 26:43 | |
I'm only posing a problem as I pointed out to those bankers. | 26:46 | |
The last in the world that was called for was for those | 26:49 | |
who are trustees of universities to begin to cut | 26:53 | |
the universities out of their wills or try to | 26:56 | |
use their unilateral power to change courses like this. | 26:58 | |
I don't even think that a shift away from the | 27:03 | |
elective system is in the cards. | 27:06 | |
I certainly don't think that trustees in universities | 27:09 | |
at this time are the people that Deans and Professors and | 27:11 | |
Presidents primarily worry about. | 27:16 | |
Its actually student power and I don't believe | 27:18 | |
in countervailing power. | 27:22 | |
I think from that you only get friction. | 27:24 | |
But I pose what I consider to be a very | 27:27 | |
real problem and one that perhaps transcends an importance | 27:32 | |
specific problems | 27:36 | |
like flexible exchange rates and | 27:41 | |
the need for an incomes policy. | 27:45 | |
- | Thank you Professor Paul Samuelson. | 27:47 |
Here's a reminder to our subscribers on our next | 27:49 | |
tape Professor Samuelson and Professor Friedman | 27:51 | |
will offer their economic forecasts for the coming year. | 27:54 | |
If you have questions or comments write | 27:57 | |
Instructional Dynamics Incorporated. | 27:59 | |
166 East Superior Street Chicago 60611. | 28:01 |
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