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Speaker | Welcome once again as MIT professor | 0:02 |
Paul Samuelson discusses the current economic scene. | 0:04 | |
The series is produced by | 0:07 | |
Instructional Dynamic Incorporated. | 0:09 | |
Professor, as we move into the third month of | 0:11 | |
the new year, is there any reason at all for any cheer? | 0:14 | |
Paul | Frankly, if you just look at the news as it's | 0:22 |
coming in on the economic front, | 0:26 | |
there is still nothing to be optimistic about. | 0:29 | |
The economy continues to slide | 0:34 | |
and the bottom is not yet in sight. | 0:38 | |
Let me review the new batch of forecasts that have | 0:45 | |
been coming and the new reports. | 0:51 | |
First we have a semantic question to discuss. | 0:57 | |
Are we in a recession? Yes. | 1:02 | |
Everybody agrees to that now. | 1:05 | |
But, does that mean that we're not in a depression? | 1:09 | |
Nomenclator changes over time | 1:17 | |
and originally it was customary to divide the | 1:19 | |
business cycle up into four phases. | 1:23 | |
There was a period of expansion, | 1:27 | |
then there was the upper turning point, | 1:29 | |
the end of the expansion and the beginning of decline, | 1:31 | |
the peak and then was the period of decline | 1:37 | |
which was called a period of recession. | 1:42 | |
And that continued until you got to the lower turning point | 1:45 | |
to bottom, to the trough | 1:50 | |
and then again you were in expansion. | 1:53 | |
So originally as Wesley Clair Mitchell, | 1:59 | |
America's foremost student of business cycles define things, | 2:03 | |
this is the Mitchell who was for many years | 2:09 | |
a professor at Columbia University, | 2:12 | |
was on of the founders of the | 2:14 | |
National Bureau of Economic Research, | 2:15 | |
which keeps the annals of the business cycle. | 2:17 | |
And who was the teacher of Arthur F. Burns, | 2:20 | |
now the Federal Reserve. | 2:27 | |
A recession that originally was not something which | 2:29 | |
you contrasted with a depression. | 2:32 | |
It was a part of the business cycle, | 2:34 | |
a period of contraction. | 2:39 | |
By this definition, the year 1930 was a year of recession. | 2:42 | |
It was also, as we know, a year of the Great Depression. | 2:48 | |
A depression which, according to the calendar of the | 2:53 | |
national bureau, it began in the middle of 1929 | 2:59 | |
and began to gather some downward steam | 3:02 | |
after the stock market crash of October 1929. | 3:05 | |
So much for the original meaning of recession, | 3:11 | |
usage is what establishes the meaning of the word | 3:16 | |
and the present day usage on the word recession is not | 3:22 | |
for the period of decline, | 3:28 | |
it is a euphemism for a depression. | 3:30 | |
In other words, if the difference between a vase and a vase | 3:34 | |
begins at $12, so that anything under $12 is a vase | 3:39 | |
and anything above $12 is a vase. | 3:42 | |
Then the different between a serious depression | 3:45 | |
and a very minor depression, so minor that we needed | 3:50 | |
a new word for it, call it a recession, | 3:54 | |
must begin somewhere. | 3:58 | |
And I would propose for 1975 as the sensible nomenclator | 4:00 | |
that a depression begins with the unemployment rate | 4:08 | |
reaches 10 percent or goes above 10 percent. | 4:13 | |
So any recession in which the unemployment rate goes | 4:17 | |
above 10 percent, might today legitimately be called | 4:20 | |
not a recession but a depression. | 4:25 | |
This must not lead to an easy confusion. | 4:31 | |
I and other economists are being asked all the time | 4:36 | |
these days and with increasing frequency, | 4:39 | |
are we in for another great depression | 4:42 | |
like that of the 1930's. | 4:44 | |
And if we say depression, | 4:46 | |
for the granddaddy of all depressions | 4:48 | |
the worst depression, perhaps the capitalistic system | 4:52 | |
has ever had in terms of it's virulence, | 4:54 | |
in terms of it's duration, | 4:57 | |
you'd really have to go back to | 4:59 | |
Andrew Jackson's time and the Martin Van Buren | 5:02 | |
to have a depression that lasted anywhere as long | 5:07 | |
as that of the 1930's, in fact, | 5:11 | |
if we measure depressions by whether you get back | 5:15 | |
to within shooting distance of full employment | 5:22 | |
however, your reasonable definition of full employment | 5:25 | |
is frayed, then the depression that began in the middle | 5:30 | |
of 1929 did not really end until 1940, | 5:34 | |
when Europe was at war or even possibly 1941. | 5:42 | |
So I guess that even beats the Martin Van Buren depression. | 5:47 | |
Nevertheless, it is reasonable to call the period of | 5:53 | |
the 1870's a depression and not a recession. | 5:58 | |
It is reasonable to call the period of the 1890's | 6:01 | |
a depression and not a recession, | 6:04 | |
even though they didn't get to anything like | 6:07 | |
one in four persons unemployed nor did they have an | 6:10 | |
average unemployment of between a sixth and a fifth, | 6:13 | |
18 percent, which was the average unemployment | 6:19 | |
of the 1930's decade itself. | 6:21 | |
So, when I say that we are with the probability, | 6:25 | |
I guess of about 50/50, little bit less than 50/50, | 6:32 | |
going to be in a depression in 1975. | 6:37 | |
I'm simply calling attention to the fact that | 6:41 | |
the unemployment rate with probability 40 out of 100 | 6:45 | |
is quite possibly going to go above 10 percent. | 6:50 | |
And these are numbers worth remembering | 6:58 | |
because already in the first month of the year, January, | 7:02 | |
we recorded 8.2 percent unemployment. | 7:08 | |
Which is the highest that unemployment ever got to in | 7:13 | |
the post World War II period. | 7:17 | |
Well, 8.2 percent is very bad but it's still growing. | 7:20 | |
And we know from previous experience and just by reasoning | 7:24 | |
about the increase in labor force and productivity changes | 7:31 | |
that unemployment tends to be a lagging series | 7:36 | |
even after we hit bottom and even if we do hit bottom | 7:39 | |
say, about next Columbus Day or sometime between | 7:42 | |
Labor Day and Thanksgiving the unemployment number | 7:48 | |
is likely, on a seasonally corrected basis, | 7:54 | |
to continue to grow for a while. | 7:56 | |
So it was in 1961 so it has been | 7:59 | |
after the lower turning point, | 8:04 | |
in most of the post war and pre war | 8:07 | |
recessions and so presumably will it be this time. | 8:13 | |
Therefore, I think that we're going to | 8:20 | |
have inflammatory language. | 8:26 | |
I haven't proposed this in order to be inflammatory. | 8:29 | |
I've proposed it in order that language have the degree | 8:31 | |
of contrast that you need to separate | 8:36 | |
a very mild growth recession like that of 1966, 1967. | 8:39 | |
From a full national bureau recession but still a mild one | 8:48 | |
like 1960, 1961 or even 1969, 1970. | 8:53 | |
We have just been having some interesting comparisons. | 9:03 | |
I noticed in the New York Times, just a little while ago, | 9:09 | |
that Somuel Golden, who covers economic affairs for | 9:13 | |
the New York Times, one of the able correspondents there, | 9:17 | |
prepared a chart on the basis on some numbers which | 9:23 | |
Doctor Geoffrey Moore, the National Bureau of | 9:26 | |
Economics Research gave her. | 9:28 | |
Geoffrey Moore was the commissioner of the Bureau of | 9:32 | |
Labor Statistics before the present incumbent, | 9:36 | |
Julius Shiskin, took over. | 9:40 | |
And he's been a long time disciple of Arthur F. Burns | 9:42 | |
at the Nation Bureau. | 9:46 | |
He as been a pioneer in the leading indicators approach. | 9:48 | |
You've heard me quote his various methods and thoughts | 9:51 | |
many time on these tapes. | 9:56 | |
And these charts, which were prepared for the New York Times | 10:00 | |
on the basis of data supplied by Doctor Geoffrey Moore, | 10:04 | |
compared this recession with all the | 10:08 | |
previous post war recessions | 10:11 | |
and with the Great Depression of the 1930's | 10:15 | |
and as Doctor Moore, so correctly says, | 10:17 | |
it's an extremely rash comparison | 10:21 | |
as yet to put the present recession or depression | 10:27 | |
in the same zoo with the Great Depression of the 1930's. | 10:34 | |
However, if you compare this recession with the greatest | 10:40 | |
previous recession in the post war period, | 10:46 | |
which is the 1957, 1958, the second Eisenhower recession, | 10:49 | |
the middle Eisenhower recession of the | 10:56 | |
three Eisenhower recessions. | 10:58 | |
Then, in certain respects, we are already worse than that. | 11:00 | |
However, in certain other respects, | 11:06 | |
we are not yet the equal of it. | 11:07 | |
The drop in real GNP is greater than that of 1957 and 58. | 11:11 | |
Both in amplitude and in duration. | 11:20 | |
Particularly duration since we realized that | 11:26 | |
we're not yet finished with the drop in real GNP by | 11:28 | |
really any of the forecaster's calculations. | 11:33 | |
More than 14 months of drop. | 11:38 | |
In terms of the drop in the physical index of production | 11:41 | |
of the Federal Reserve, for a long time this was a | 11:44 | |
puzzling recession, very deep in terms of real GNP, | 11:46 | |
but not very deep in terms of the drop | 11:51 | |
in the Federal Reserve board index of physical production | 11:55 | |
and made some observers, Dr. Moore was one of them, | 11:58 | |
doubt that we were even in a nation bureau recession. | 12:01 | |
But in November we got a very steep drop in production | 12:04 | |
and December we got another very steep drop | 12:08 | |
and now we've got the news that the drop in January was | 12:11 | |
the steepest drop in one month of the whole post war period. | 12:14 | |
You have to go back to 1937 to get a comfortable drop | 12:19 | |
and no doubt the end is not yet here. | 12:23 | |
So, I guess when the story is completed, | 12:27 | |
Dr. Moore will find that the drop in the FRB index | 12:33 | |
of physical production does confirm that we are | 12:39 | |
as bad or even worse than the worst previous recession, | 12:43 | |
that of 1957 and 58. | 12:47 | |
In terms of drop in pricing of course, | 12:50 | |
you wouldn't even know that this was a recession | 12:52 | |
because we are in an age of stagflation | 12:54 | |
and instead of having prices drop, | 12:57 | |
all that we are even hoping for is that the rate | 13:00 | |
of increase of prices drop from two digit increase, | 13:03 | |
low two digit increase, to a high one digit increase. | 13:08 | |
If we look at the level of unemployment, | 13:15 | |
well I've already mentioned that, | 13:19 | |
that is the highest in the post war period. | 13:20 | |
So, we've beat the 1957, 58 record. | 13:22 | |
If you look at the level of employment, however, | 13:26 | |
that in duration just began the drop a few months ago | 13:29 | |
and has been one of the puzzling features. | 13:36 | |
My suspension is that if Dr. Moore keeps these records | 13:38 | |
for a long time he will find that more and more labor | 13:43 | |
is becoming and overhead factor in American enterprise | 13:46 | |
and that as we move into, what in the old days have | 13:50 | |
been called national bureau recession, or growth recessions, | 13:55 | |
that people will increasingly in the large cooperations | 14:00 | |
at least, hoard a labor so that the drop in employment | 14:03 | |
will be slow in incoming. | 14:08 | |
Since we've had a big upswing in female participation labor | 14:11 | |
force, you might have thought that that would be | 14:17 | |
counter force but it doesn't seem to have | 14:19 | |
been an effective one. | 14:22 | |
Still, it's very misleading to compare a completed | 14:26 | |
57/58 recession, after all the recession ended in 58 | 14:31 | |
in a surprisingly quick time. | 14:38 | |
I can testify from personal remembrance that | 14:42 | |
most of the experts in Washington, | 14:46 | |
including those in the counsel of economic advisors, | 14:49 | |
which whom I was in very close touch at that time. | 14:52 | |
Dr. Sonya, the successor to Arthur Burns in the second | 14:57 | |
Eisenhower term was the chairman of the counsel of | 15:02 | |
economic advisors and I believe with hindsight | 15:05 | |
he's under the impression that before the April turn | 15:11 | |
he was pretty confident it would come | 15:15 | |
but according to my notebooks which I kept at the time | 15:19 | |
and kept careful records of all my conversations | 15:25 | |
of people in Washington. | 15:30 | |
As for example, with one of the leading forecasters at the | 15:32 | |
counsel of economic advisors, the late David Lusher, | 15:37 | |
who was one of the best government forecasters that | 15:41 | |
we've ever had and who served in both Republican and | 15:47 | |
Democratic administrations. | 15:49 | |
The turn was a V bottom, | 15:51 | |
and it came as something of a surprise. | 15:54 | |
Well, you mustn't compare a completed movement with a | 15:57 | |
movement that is still incomplete. | 16:01 | |
Indeed, if you're in the presence of ignorance | 16:03 | |
and you walk along the road on a dark night, | 16:07 | |
you just pick up a road and you walk along the road | 16:10 | |
and somebody says "how long is the road?", | 16:12 | |
the unbiased estimate is to say well it's as long again | 16:14 | |
as what I've already traversed. | 16:18 | |
That's a naive a bit of apriorism but | 16:22 | |
it's the best estimate that could be made without | 16:28 | |
biased under the circumstances and so | 16:31 | |
if we had no other evidence but that we'd been in | 16:34 | |
this recession depression for as long as we have, | 16:37 | |
we'd have to make the noncommittal forecast that | 16:40 | |
it's going to last as long again as it has already lasted. | 16:46 | |
Now, we do have other information. | 16:50 | |
We're not in a situation of beige imbalance ignorance. | 16:52 | |
And so I don't think that very many of us would | 16:55 | |
be willing to concede that we have another 14, 15 | 16:58 | |
months ahead of us of continued slide. | 17:04 | |
Quite the contrary, as I reviewed the different | 17:09 | |
forecasters with you, and I shall do you'll | 17:12 | |
see that most people don't think it has that long to go. | 17:15 | |
But, most people think it has long enough to go to | 17:20 | |
make it change Dr. Moore's comparisons as they now stand. | 17:23 | |
Of course he's right, not to put in future forecasts into | 17:30 | |
a present comparisons, there will be time enough | 17:35 | |
when the future becomes the present for Dr. Moore to | 17:38 | |
pick up the situation as it is then. | 17:42 | |
Well no, I was asked whether there is deterioration or | 17:46 | |
optimism in the picture and I've had to say | 17:54 | |
there still is deterioration. | 17:58 | |
To illustrate quantitatively how much deterioration | 18:03 | |
there is, let me just quote from some year end estimates | 18:07 | |
that I rounded up for the financial times of London | 18:13 | |
disappeared in the December 31st 1974, | 18:18 | |
that is the new years issue of the London financial times | 18:22 | |
as one of the many annual year end forecast | 18:27 | |
that I have prepared for them. | 18:31 | |
And I said that the experts had been so poor | 18:35 | |
in 1974 that I wasn't going to single out any one of them | 18:40 | |
and put in his forecast as I had done in earlier years | 18:45 | |
but I was going to take montage of the different forecasters | 18:51 | |
and I must confess that I shaded this montage | 18:56 | |
in a pessimistic direction | 19:01 | |
because I found that you can only win by second guessing | 19:04 | |
the two optimistic experts. | 19:09 | |
Until the wind blows in a different direction | 19:12 | |
that's the line I'm going to take down in the office pools. | 19:15 | |
However, we've only come barely two months, | 19:19 | |
well we've come two months since I've prepared the article | 19:24 | |
but less than two months since I've have | 19:27 | |
a chance to change it. | 19:28 | |
And even though I second guessed the experts | 19:31 | |
in a pessimistic direction, I didn't do so enough. | 19:33 | |
I just had a telephone call from Swedish publication | 19:37 | |
and they asked me whether that forecast | 19:43 | |
still stood and I had to tell them no. | 19:46 | |
So let me indicate what the changes were. | 19:49 | |
The changes were both in real GNP growth | 19:53 | |
and also in the rate of inflation. | 19:59 | |
Very much changes in the unemployment rate | 20:04 | |
and some downward rate in short term interest rates | 20:07 | |
and even a little bit in long interest rates. | 20:11 | |
My profile for the year, when I was writing early | 20:16 | |
in December for the year 1975 was for | 20:20 | |
minus four percent real growth annual rate | 20:23 | |
in the first quarter minus two percent. | 20:26 | |
And then the turn, coming just about the middle | 20:29 | |
of the year, you see I was a pessimist | 20:32 | |
compared to the experts at that time. | 20:35 | |
But not a sharp V bottom as in the Paul McCracken fashion. | 20:37 | |
But only to a plus three percent annual rate of real growth | 20:43 | |
in the third quarter and plus four percent annual | 20:46 | |
rate of growth in the fourth quarter. | 20:48 | |
However, my new numbers are | 20:52 | |
minus nine percent in the first quarter, | 20:54 | |
that's the current quarter we're in now. | 20:57 | |
Minus seven percent in the second quarter, | 20:59 | |
minus two percent in the third quarter | 21:02 | |
so that the turn does not come until | 21:04 | |
well really until after Columbus Day | 21:10 | |
or just about that time. | 21:13 | |
Minus two percent in the third quarter and | 21:17 | |
a very week upturn in the fourth quarter, plus one percent. | 21:19 | |
That means that the unemployment rate for the first quarter | 21:23 | |
might well be average out for the quarter | 21:28 | |
eight and a third percent. | 21:31 | |
Nine percent for the second quarter. | 21:34 | |
10 percent for the third, | 21:36 | |
and 10 and a third percent for the fourth. | 21:39 | |
Now if these guesses, and they're no more than that, | 21:42 | |
turn out to be in the ballpark then by my present definition | 21:47 | |
we shall go down in the history books | 21:52 | |
as having a Ford depression or | 21:54 | |
as I am discussing in a Newsweek column perhaps | 21:58 | |
history will record this as the Arthur Burns depression. | 22:06 | |
Short term interest rates I thought would not come down | 22:12 | |
much because I didn't think the prices | 22:15 | |
were going to come down a lot. | 22:17 | |
But with this new amount of weakness in the economy, | 22:18 | |
then naturally I've shaded downward my price numbers so that | 22:21 | |
if prices grow eight percent in the first quarter | 22:28 | |
by the implicit price deflator, seven percent in the | 22:32 | |
second quarter, these are annual rates, | 22:35 | |
six percent in the third, | 22:37 | |
then that's about as low as I put them. | 22:38 | |
And the fourth quarter, since we'll begin to go up, | 22:42 | |
I put them again at six percent. | 22:44 | |
But I must say that I may be overly pessimistic here. | 22:47 | |
When you consider that we are really discussing a | 22:52 | |
depression and not a recession, there's no reason why with | 22:55 | |
a good harvest and a little luck on the oil cartel front, | 22:59 | |
we couldn't get some improvement in the rate of inflation. | 23:03 | |
God knows we've sacrificed enough for it. | 23:08 | |
We've invested enough in blood and lost treasure | 23:11 | |
that we ought to be able to get something like that. | 23:15 | |
Well, if the economy is as week as I've now outlined it | 23:20 | |
to be and I've by no means the most pessimistic on the block | 23:25 | |
among the forecasters, then I think short terms interest | 23:28 | |
rates do have a way to go. | 23:32 | |
And commercial paper rates if they're seven percent | 23:35 | |
in the first quarter, they'll be down to six percent | 23:38 | |
in the second quarter and that could mean | 23:41 | |
treasury bill rates below that and federal funds rates | 23:43 | |
as the Federal Reserve is pushing against the strength | 23:47 | |
as I hope they'll begin to do a little harder. | 23:50 | |
Could be very sloppy indeed, could be five percent and | 23:53 | |
days in which you're four percent and below. | 23:57 | |
But since the recovery is then going to be, | 24:00 | |
begin to be in sight, | 24:04 | |
the short term commercial paper rate might go | 24:06 | |
to six and a quarter percent in the third quarter | 24:09 | |
and be on the rise to six and three quarters percent | 24:11 | |
in the last quarter of the year. | 24:14 | |
This is consistent I suppose just on the back of the | 24:16 | |
envelope calculation with long term bond rates coming down, | 24:20 | |
I thought that they might be nine point two percent | 24:25 | |
in the first quarter, well let's say nine percent | 24:28 | |
on corporate bonds with a calendar increasing. | 24:31 | |
Then down in the second quarter, eight and a half percent. | 24:35 | |
But not getting really below that very much, | 24:39 | |
maybe at eight and three quarters percent | 24:43 | |
in the third quarter and | 24:45 | |
back at nine percent back in the fourth quarter | 24:48 | |
where we were at the beginning of the year. | 24:51 | |
Well, that shows you that the forecasts are not chiseled on | 24:56 | |
tablets for all times. | 25:04 | |
They're subject to a frequent change. | 25:07 | |
If you must forecast, do forecast often | 25:12 | |
and that is my own strategy. | 25:14 | |
What is the policy background for all this? | 25:25 | |
What am I presuming is gonna happen to monetary policy | 25:28 | |
and to fiscal policy and what is not exactly the same thing | 25:33 | |
what do I think ought to happen? | 25:37 | |
First it should be noted that the Federal Reserve | 25:40 | |
is not pushing hard enough on the string. | 25:44 | |
The weakness in the business economy is proceeding | 25:47 | |
more rapidly to undermine the demand for money | 25:53 | |
than the increase in the supply efforts | 25:57 | |
of the Federal Reserve to increase the supply of money. | 26:01 | |
The result is that we still for the last numbers | 26:05 | |
that we have for the last month and a half | 26:11 | |
for the last three months, show very disappointing | 26:14 | |
rates of growth to the money supply | 26:20 | |
It's not that interest rates aren't coming down, | 26:21 | |
they are coming down, but the Federal Reserve is | 26:23 | |
reluctant to let the markets become sloppy with | 26:28 | |
respect to short term funds. | 26:32 | |
And therefore, it is constantly surprising itself | 26:35 | |
and disappointing itself because each month | 26:39 | |
when the open market committee meets again | 26:42 | |
it find that it's targets for the money aggregates | 26:45 | |
of the last were not realized. | 26:49 | |
A couple of times in the business cycle, | 26:55 | |
I find my self joining the monitorists. | 26:57 | |
It's not that I suddenly see the light | 27:01 | |
on the contrary I remain a skeptic with respect to | 27:07 | |
those doctrines which are peculiar to the monitorists | 27:12 | |
and most things that have happened in the | 27:18 | |
last few years have confirmed me in my skepticism. | 27:22 | |
The high water point in which mother nature | 27:27 | |
seem to be going a little bit in the direction | 27:31 | |
of the monitorists although in my reading of | 27:33 | |
mother nature, not very far in that direction | 27:36 | |
was reached several years ago and since then, | 27:40 | |
the monitorist forecast and the insights | 27:42 | |
which are peculiar to monitorism | 27:47 | |
and which cut across and are different from | 27:49 | |
the non monitorist have turned out, it seems to me, | 27:54 | |
to be disappointing and misleading. | 28:00 | |
But still, the monitorist who want to get the rate of growth | 28:05 | |
of money supply up to their steady figure of four to | 28:11 | |
five percent at a time where the number is minus | 28:15 | |
10 percent per annum or only one percent over a longer | 28:19 | |
period of time, I am rooting for the monitorist. | 28:25 | |
I'm rooting the same direction that they are. | 28:29 | |
I'm scolding the Federal Reserve for not pushing | 28:31 | |
hard enough on that string, for paying too much | 28:34 | |
attention to keeping interest rates from sliding too fast. | 28:37 | |
All the accusations which the monitorist make of the | 28:43 | |
manager of the open market desk, I join in those. | 28:48 | |
Because where we'll part company is that when we get the | 28:54 | |
rate of growth of the money supply back to four to five | 28:58 | |
percent then I will continue and want the rate of growth | 29:01 | |
of money supply as the economy continues to slide | 29:06 | |
to go above four to five percent and the moniorist | 29:10 | |
will part company with me because | 29:16 | |
they will stand pack at that point. | 29:18 | |
However, we have a rendezvous to meet again once the | 29:21 | |
bottom has been reached. | 29:25 | |
Once we are begging to gain some upward momentum. | 29:28 | |
Once looking ahead the six months and the nine months | 29:33 | |
one must look ahead for the lags of | 29:37 | |
effect of current monetary policy. | 29:42 | |
Then I will be counseling the Federal Reserve to be | 29:45 | |
taking in slack to slow down the rate of growth | 29:48 | |
of the money supply and indeed to | 29:53 | |
overshoot below the four to five percent rate. | 30:00 | |
But there'll be a moment there, a happy moment when | 30:06 | |
both the monitorist and I shall be advocating | 30:10 | |
a four to five percent rate of growth. | 30:13 | |
Speaker | There's a-- | 30:15 |
Paul | Let me close on a note of a partial cheer. | 30:16 |
First there's no evidence that we're gonna go into a | 30:19 | |
great depression like that of the 1930's. | 30:22 | |
And secondly, it may be that we've reached the inflection | 30:24 | |
point that the last part of January may have been | 30:27 | |
the period of most rapid slide. | 30:30 | |
Now if that's comfort, I give it to you. | 30:32 | |
Speaker | If you have any comments or questions | 30:37 |
for Professor Samuelson, address them to Instructional | 30:39 | |
Dynamics Incorporated, 450 East Ohio Street, | 30:41 | |
Chicago, IL 60611. | 30:45 |
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