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Instructor | Welcome once again as MIT professor, | 0:02 |
Paul Samuelson discusses the current economic scene. | 0:04 | |
This biweekly series is produced by | 0:07 | |
Instructional Dynamics Incorporated. | 0:09 | |
This program was reported February 8th. | 0:11 | |
Professor Samuelson. | 0:13 | |
Paul Samuelson | Now we have the budget message. | 0:16 |
We have the state of the union message. | 0:18 | |
We have the economic report of the president. | 0:19 | |
As I predicted in my last tape, | 0:24 | |
one could pretty much know in advance | 0:26 | |
exactly what would be in these documents | 0:29 | |
and there were no surprises. | 0:33 | |
The president having determined to give up phase two | 0:35 | |
to move directly into phase three. | 0:41 | |
To rely on voluntary price end wage controls | 0:46 | |
except in the limited areas of building | 0:51 | |
food processing health care | 0:55 | |
had no choice in my opinion, | 0:58 | |
but to come in with a very contractionary | 1:00 | |
set of recommendations. | 1:06 | |
These he has made, they have I think somewhat the supplies. | 1:09 | |
The Congress, they certainly have irritated the Congressmen. | 1:14 | |
But let's first before trying | 1:19 | |
to make guesses about the politics of the situation | 1:22 | |
look into what seems to be needed | 1:27 | |
by the economics of the situation. | 1:29 | |
We must begin with the observation | 1:33 | |
that the economy is still overstrung. | 1:36 | |
The fashionable forecasts which we discussed a month ago | 1:40 | |
were higher than the fashionable forecasts | 1:45 | |
that we discussed a couple of months ago | 1:47 | |
and the present forecasts are higher still. | 1:50 | |
I would guess that the majority | 1:57 | |
of the forecasting fraternity now | 1:59 | |
look for at least a 10 percent increase in money GNP. | 2:03 | |
That's something like 115 billion increase in money GNP | 2:10 | |
uncorrected for a price change. | 2:15 | |
As against what they were expecting a month or two ago | 2:17 | |
which was 105 billion. | 2:22 | |
Even Ray (inaudible) of Princeton, | 2:24 | |
who I told you does not ever get influenced | 2:29 | |
by the current enthusiasms | 2:35 | |
because has a completely mechanical | 2:38 | |
computer method of forecasting. | 2:41 | |
I looked at his most recent forecast | 2:44 | |
and that seems to be up by, unless I've made a mistake, | 2:47 | |
something like at least 10 billion dollars. | 2:51 | |
So we have been growing at a rate of 8 percent in mil terms. | 2:56 | |
Now it's possible to do that for a quarter or so. | 3:02 | |
It's possible to do it for two or three quarters. | 3:07 | |
But it's not healthy a healthy thing. | 3:09 | |
Most economists would gladly trade | 3:13 | |
to have lots of six percent quarters | 3:16 | |
as against just a few eight percent quarters. | 3:20 | |
So the time was ripe, | 3:24 | |
if not overripe for moderation in terms of macroeconomics. | 3:26 | |
Otherwise we will run too quickly | 3:34 | |
into old fashioned demand-pull inflation. | 3:37 | |
And remember, we're not yet out of the woods | 3:40 | |
from the last cost-push inflation | 3:43 | |
induced by the post Vietnam demand-pull inflation. | 3:45 | |
I suppose from this point of view | 3:52 | |
we should be thankful that the Federal Reserve | 3:54 | |
was over-contractionary from the view of monetarists | 3:56 | |
back from the middle of the year until November | 4:01 | |
because with long and variable lags | 4:04 | |
there should now be an element working | 4:07 | |
for moderation in the picture. | 4:08 | |
However, most people are apprehensive | 4:12 | |
with respect to monetary analysis. | 4:16 | |
Probably unduly so. | 4:19 | |
At years end the money supply continued to grow. | 4:23 | |
My information is that in January, | 4:26 | |
the money supply did not grow at the rapid rates | 4:30 | |
of the last part of November and December. | 4:35 | |
It had slowed down | 4:38 | |
to something like a four percent rate of growth. | 4:39 | |
Nevertheless, I would suppose, | 4:43 | |
that in the first half of this year, | 4:46 | |
we will find reason to complain | 4:49 | |
that the Federal Reserve is not being tight enough. | 4:55 | |
Then in the last half of the year, | 5:00 | |
and no doubt there will be reason to complain | 5:02 | |
that the Federal reserve is being too tight. | 5:06 | |
This is inevitable if the Federal Reserve | 5:09 | |
applies a policy of gradualism. | 5:12 | |
If the Federal Reserve has some concern | 5:15 | |
for what's happening in the interest rate markets | 5:19 | |
of the country and if the Federal Reserve, | 5:23 | |
therefore permits interest rates too rise, | 5:28 | |
but will not tolerate interest rates leaping upward | 5:30 | |
then nobody is going to be satisfied | 5:37 | |
with the behavior of the Federal reserve. | 5:40 | |
On the other hand, | 5:44 | |
the major topic of the day is a fiscal policy. | 5:44 | |
The president, | 5:51 | |
if he wanted to have contractionary fiscal policy | 5:53 | |
might have introduced recommendations for tax increases. | 5:57 | |
He made promises during the campaign period, | 6:01 | |
that he would not, in 1973 ask for a tax increase. | 6:05 | |
I don't know whether he will someday regret that promise. | 6:13 | |
But there's certainly no sign that he | 6:17 | |
or his team at this moment | 6:19 | |
have any intention on going back on that promise. | 6:21 | |
That leaves them only with the policy on cutting down hard | 6:28 | |
on government expenditures. | 6:33 | |
This (inaudible). | 6:37 | |
For philosophical reasons, | 6:39 | |
the Nixon Republic and administration, | 6:40 | |
particularly in it's second term, | 6:44 | |
well it needn't be directed concerned with re-election | 6:45 | |
has a predilection on philosophical grounds | 6:51 | |
for limited role for government | 6:54 | |
and a limited role for government at the center. | 6:58 | |
So that what spending they will be forced to do | 7:00 | |
in the field of welfare. | 7:07 | |
They will prefer to do out of a revenue sharing basis. | 7:08 | |
We've had the comical spectacle | 7:13 | |
of the mayors of this country lobbying, | 7:14 | |
pressuring the federal government. | 7:17 | |
Pressuring the president into a program of revenue sharing. | 7:20 | |
Apparently the mayors in this country | 7:25 | |
believe in Santa Claus. | 7:28 | |
They thought that they would | 7:29 | |
get something extra for nothing, | 7:29 | |
but of course they've discovered | 7:33 | |
to their concern that the revenue sharing | 7:34 | |
which they got was not always adequate. | 7:37 | |
But in any case there was a hook, there was a catch. | 7:40 | |
The programs that are directly involved problems | 7:44 | |
in the urban environment have been cut back | 7:50 | |
by the president and now he tells the mayors | 7:53 | |
if you have an asset out of the money | 7:56 | |
that I've given you and let's make no mistake about it, | 7:58 | |
these programs are now hurting. | 8:03 | |
Of course you could have had | 8:06 | |
a massive rethinking of social priorities, | 8:08 | |
we could have cut down | 8:11 | |
on the farm legislative subsidies | 8:13 | |
which no economists approve of actually | 8:16 | |
for gratuitous reasons connected | 8:22 | |
with the Russian crop failure and with the food shortage, | 8:23 | |
the farm programs at long last | 8:28 | |
look to be on the way to be liquidated. | 8:31 | |
But to go on we could have had a massive rethinking | 8:34 | |
of military security expenditures. | 8:40 | |
And there might have been a determination | 8:44 | |
to purchase what some people would regard | 8:46 | |
as the same security at a much lower cost. | 8:50 | |
I'm thinking of phasing out plans for land bombers. | 8:53 | |
I'm thinking of more concentration | 8:59 | |
on submarine deterrent missiles, things like that. | 9:02 | |
And have a really thorough going shakedown | 9:07 | |
in the military establishment. | 9:11 | |
That could include, by the way, | 9:15 | |
now that we've gone on to a voluntary army basis, | 9:17 | |
voluntary arms services basis, | 9:21 | |
that could include a much smaller amount | 9:23 | |
of better trained in the arm services of the United States. | 9:26 | |
So to put pressure on the developing overheating | 9:32 | |
of the american economy, | 9:39 | |
we could have maintained those social welfare programs | 9:41 | |
which are most desperately needed. | 9:46 | |
Those which the proof of experience have shown | 9:51 | |
to be the most adequate. | 9:55 | |
Of course it's too much to ask for optimality | 9:57 | |
its unlikely that, you know, | 10:00 | |
our political process very often discover | 10:02 | |
the very best program that the man | 10:06 | |
or commissions might devise. | 10:10 | |
But we still could have maintained these programs | 10:13 | |
of humanitarian import | 10:18 | |
and which also contribute towards a rectifying | 10:21 | |
of the excessive amount of inequality | 10:26 | |
which men of goodwill are deploying in the American economy. | 10:32 | |
But of course you know that that would not have been likely | 10:37 | |
and of course that didn't come to pass. | 10:41 | |
I said that we've had the comical spectacle of mayors | 10:48 | |
where we've had the comical spectacle of congress. | 10:51 | |
And if a country gets what it deserves | 10:56 | |
and if we deserve the present congress | 10:59 | |
then we should perhaps feel less unhappy | 11:02 | |
about our present plight. | 11:07 | |
Many of my listeners will have seen on the TV news shows | 11:11 | |
the testimony of the president's economic team. | 11:19 | |
George Shultz, the domestic economic (inaudible) | 11:24 | |
so to speak, secretary of the treasury. | 11:28 | |
But more than that some of them call him the super | 11:30 | |
(inaudible) in Washington, was on hand. | 11:32 | |
Herbert Stein, the chairman | 11:36 | |
of the Council of Economic Advisers | 11:39 | |
man who presumably used to be the number one economist | 11:41 | |
in the government and now number two, | 11:45 | |
if not three or four was on hand | 11:48 | |
the designated new head of the | 11:54 | |
Office of Management and Budget. | 11:58 | |
(indistinct) Industries was on hand | 12:00 | |
and it's quite obvious that the team had briefed itself | 12:04 | |
for a rough going over from congress | 12:09 | |
and they were prepared as best they could | 12:12 | |
to defend the budgetary cuts | 12:15 | |
which the president was urging upon congress | 12:18 | |
and the refusal to spend which the president | 12:22 | |
unilaterally by his own executive self orders | 12:25 | |
was imposing on that spending the money | 12:29 | |
which congress had already voted for many programs | 12:32 | |
due to the heart of the Congressmen. | 12:36 | |
But if that's what they expected | 12:39 | |
in the hands of the committee, | 12:40 | |
they were disappointed, | 12:42 | |
but of course pleasantly disappointed. | 12:44 | |
Because Senator Man, a democrat, went into a tiraid | 12:46 | |
about the huge size of the president's deficit. | 12:51 | |
George Sultz was so taken aback | 12:57 | |
that he took this to be an indication of a desire | 12:59 | |
in the party congress to have a tax increase. | 13:03 | |
And he said that into the television cameras | 13:06 | |
directed towards the Senator, | 13:10 | |
but obviously directed towards the American people. | 13:12 | |
I don't understand why the congress is so bent upon | 13:15 | |
forcing upon the American people a tax increase | 13:20 | |
when in administration, | 13:22 | |
president Nixon are not at all in favor of that. | 13:24 | |
Well the last thing in the world Senator Man, | 13:27 | |
with his upside down fiscal finance in this occasion | 13:30 | |
willing to settle with | 13:33 | |
was that he was in favor of a tax increase. | 13:34 | |
And so he said, | 13:37 | |
but you're coming in with a larger budget than last time. | 13:39 | |
Now that employment is down to a five percent | 13:42 | |
and we should take note of the fact | 13:46 | |
that it is down to five percent. | 13:48 | |
How can you justify running this huge deficit? | 13:50 | |
Well in the first place, the stronger the economy is, | 13:56 | |
the less will be the deficit | 14:01 | |
and the more contractionary tax policy | 14:03 | |
or contractionary fiscal policy | 14:07 | |
and contractionary monetary policy eluded. | 14:09 | |
Congressman thinks that when a lot of revenues come in, | 14:12 | |
you don't need taxes. | 14:14 | |
Economists know the opposite is the case. | 14:16 | |
The only point in increasing taxes in a situation like this, | 14:19 | |
is for the purpose of cutting down on spending. | 14:24 | |
In other words it must be a tax that hurts, | 14:29 | |
it can't be a tax which isn't felt. | 14:31 | |
So, we haven't had on the part of the opposition in Congress | 14:35 | |
as yet any regrouping, | 14:41 | |
any very intelligent action to react to the president. | 14:44 | |
In the meantime, there's some very important programs | 14:50 | |
which are languishing. | 14:55 | |
You can go down the list of those who are in universities | 14:56 | |
at institutions like MIT. | 15:01 | |
I know that pure science, | 15:05 | |
for some time has been out of favor | 15:07 | |
and that there has been a move towards the applied science. | 15:09 | |
The scientific advisor, | 15:13 | |
the president never got to see the president. | 15:15 | |
The president finally formalized that arrangement | 15:17 | |
by having the new scientific advisor not even report to him, | 15:20 | |
but report only through George Shultz. | 15:26 | |
So it goes, there's a lot of money. | 15:32 | |
Too much money I'm told for jazzy subjects like cancer. | 15:35 | |
But there's not money for fundamental research | 15:40 | |
which nobody can predict in detail | 15:46 | |
will give rise to higher productivity | 15:51 | |
in the future to a better environment, | 15:53 | |
to less pollution to more copious | 15:57 | |
and safer energy sources and so forth. | 16:02 | |
Well I don't see anything that can stop this | 16:07 | |
in the two years before the election. | 16:12 | |
No doubt congress will be accumulating grievances | 16:15 | |
and irritations and in some future date, | 16:20 | |
somebody may pay for these humiliations | 16:24 | |
and their insults. | 16:30 | |
But until the next elections, | 16:32 | |
we're pretty much on the same course | 16:35 | |
that you find in parliamentary systems of administerial | 16:36 | |
responsibility to a majority party in parliament. | 16:41 | |
Keith or Palmer in Sweden, | 16:45 | |
Keith in UK maybe unpopular with the electorate now. | 16:49 | |
But until the next election they can put through | 16:53 | |
their parliaments any legislation | 16:56 | |
that they set their minds to | 16:59 | |
because of members of their own party | 17:02 | |
would have to jeopardize their own jobs | 17:04 | |
by joining in a vote of no confidence. | 17:07 | |
Let's turn to the general business situation. | 17:13 | |
Is this (indistinct) budget, | 17:18 | |
is there such a decline in spending | 17:21 | |
that the over exuberance in the economy | 17:23 | |
which I've just spoken of will be eliminated | 17:26 | |
and indeed is there a danger that it will be followed | 17:31 | |
by a period of too little | 17:35 | |
purchasing power steam in the economy. | 17:37 | |
I don't think so. | 17:40 | |
In the first place, the budget spending will go up | 17:42 | |
by something like seven percent in real terms. | 17:48 | |
That is a reduction because, | 17:52 | |
no that's not a reduction in real terms. | 17:57 | |
In the sense that the prices haven't risen by seven percent. | 18:01 | |
But most of that, | 18:05 | |
much of that is an increase in transfer expenditures | 18:07 | |
by the expanded social security program. | 18:10 | |
And so if you subtract that out | 18:14 | |
and look at the resulting increase | 18:17 | |
or change in the money value of goods | 18:21 | |
and services purchased by the government. | 18:26 | |
And then if you deflate that by the increase in prices | 18:29 | |
of those goods and services bought by the government. | 18:34 | |
You will then end up with an estimate of the real | 18:37 | |
GNP goods and services purchased by the government. | 18:42 | |
And that I think would prove to be a negative number, | 18:48 | |
but it would not be a huge gaping hole | 18:54 | |
in the circular flow of purchasing power. | 18:57 | |
And I see no reason to believe that | 19:01 | |
the first quarter of this year will not be a very strong one | 19:04 | |
and the second quarter also. | 19:08 | |
This leaves us with the question of whether by the third | 19:11 | |
or fourth quarter the rate of increase in real GNP | 19:16 | |
will be down to the normal level, | 19:22 | |
the trend level for the American economy | 19:27 | |
which is perhaps four and a quarter percent | 19:29 | |
or as a few people think, but still only a few, | 19:32 | |
down to below that so that the unemployment situation | 19:36 | |
which has been generally improving will go into reverse. | 19:40 | |
That could happen but I think on the basis | 19:45 | |
of the current leads and lags | 19:48 | |
and the inertia in the system | 19:52 | |
and the best estimates that I've been able to see | 19:54 | |
of what's going to happen to inventory spending | 19:57 | |
in the next four or five quarters to housing | 20:00 | |
to plant the equipment expenditures. | 20:03 | |
I think it's premature to blow the whistle | 20:07 | |
and say that the period of expansion is over | 20:10 | |
and now we're entering into the period of stagnation | 20:13 | |
or of stagflation. | 20:17 | |
A word or two on the unemployment situation. | 20:21 | |
I believe that the administration has won its bet | 20:25 | |
that by the end of the year the unemployment | 20:29 | |
of the United States will be in the neighborhood | 20:31 | |
of five percent. | 20:34 | |
You know that on the evidence available | 20:35 | |
in the beginning of the year | 20:37 | |
I didn't think that the best scientific judgment | 20:38 | |
would be that that would be a correct statement. | 20:42 | |
I said that something like five or quarter percent, | 20:44 | |
but it was explained nicely to me by one of the members of | 20:46 | |
the Nixon Council of Economic Advisors | 20:50 | |
that by the end of the year | 20:53 | |
they didn't mean the first quarter, | 20:54 | |
they meant literally New Years midnight | 20:56 | |
which means halfway between the fourth quarter | 20:58 | |
and the first quarter | 21:01 | |
and that alone would almost make their debt worthwhile. | 21:02 | |
But many a case, | 21:08 | |
the drop in November to 5.2 percent from 5.5 percent, | 21:09 | |
which being a full three tenths of a percent | 21:14 | |
looked suspicious. | 21:17 | |
And now that they've revised the data it seems it stands up. | 21:18 | |
And the continuance in December | 21:23 | |
of another 5.2 percent month, | 21:24 | |
now that they've revised the data, | 21:26 | |
it turns out to be an overstatement of unemployment. | 21:28 | |
It was now with new seasonal corrections, 5.1 percent. | 21:31 | |
And then in January, | 21:36 | |
which I guess we can say is around the end of the year, | 21:37 | |
we had 5.0 percent. | 21:41 | |
So there isn't any reason at this time, | 21:45 | |
not to think that in the months ahead, | 21:53 | |
the number may well work it's way below a five percent, | 21:58 | |
more or less steadily. | 22:03 | |
The major doubt in this regard, I think, | 22:05 | |
would be the fact that the improvement | 22:09 | |
in the unemployment numbers. | 22:12 | |
Which could come about either | 22:17 | |
because the job situation was exceptionally strong | 22:18 | |
or because the labor force growth was weaker than expected. | 22:22 | |
Either of those two could have been possibilities | 22:33 | |
was turned out in the last few months | 22:34 | |
that it's been weakness in the labor force. | 22:37 | |
Seems to me that that's fair enough. | 22:39 | |
After all, there was excessive strength in the labor force | 22:42 | |
for month after month after month back early in 1972 | 22:46 | |
and indeed in 1971 and so the rosy expectations | 22:50 | |
of the administration were rewarded for that reason. | 22:55 | |
Well you can't get it coming and going | 22:59 | |
and since they got it earlier, | 23:01 | |
we got to let them get some relief | 23:05 | |
from a relaxation in the labor force. | 23:07 | |
A relaxation, by the way although it wasn't predicted. | 23:10 | |
The magnitude is not at all out of the ball park | 23:14 | |
for what seems reasonable | 23:18 | |
at this stage of the business cycle. | 23:20 | |
I don't know that the productivity | 23:23 | |
has been doing anything noteworthy. | 23:25 | |
As you know, early in the business cycle expansion, | 23:29 | |
productivity does very well | 23:34 | |
and that has turned out to be true. | 23:35 | |
In this expansion, | 23:37 | |
once we got into a period of real expansion, | 23:39 | |
got behind the 1971 very weak endemic expansion, | 23:43 | |
productivity did improve | 23:48 | |
and although we can't expect to maintain that pace | 23:50 | |
there is no reason to think that it will go away, | 23:54 | |
the productivity and pace will go away overnight. | 23:57 | |
I return to what must be the key question | 24:04 | |
and preoccupation for anyone who wants to understand | 24:07 | |
the developing business cycle situation in the Unites States | 24:11 | |
in 1973 and in 1974. | 24:17 | |
The key must be found in the behavior | 24:21 | |
of prices and of wages. | 24:23 | |
If phase three works, | 24:26 | |
if the moderating of inflation which had been going | 24:30 | |
on before phase one | 24:36 | |
and which when I'm very strongly in phase one | 24:39 | |
and continue but with less strength | 24:42 | |
(that is the degree of moderation in phase two). | 24:46 | |
If that continues nicely | 24:50 | |
and if the administration wins its bets | 24:52 | |
that by the end of the year prices will be growing | 24:55 | |
at less than three percent | 24:59 | |
and that's the beginning of 1973. | 25:01 | |
And then I think we can look to a strong 1974. | 25:03 | |
I think its fruitless to try to look beyond then. | 25:13 | |
But remember this, | 25:16 | |
almost none of the experts, | 25:19 | |
those who are for administration | 25:23 | |
or those who are against administration | 25:24 | |
are really that optimistic. | 25:26 | |
Almost all the forecasts before phase two was abandoned, | 25:28 | |
looked for prices to be increasing in 1973 itself. | 25:33 | |
Somewhere around the three and a half percent rate. | 25:38 | |
Less than three and a half if you compare '72 with '73. | 25:44 | |
But three and a half in '73 itself. | 25:48 | |
After phase two was removed, | 25:52 | |
I think representative of what we've seen happening | 25:54 | |
for example in fuel and oil in the number of other lines | 25:57 | |
that relevant price increases | 26:02 | |
frowned on by the administration, | 26:03 | |
but they have yet pulled a big stick out of the closet. | 26:05 | |
They've I guess pulled it out of the closet | 26:09 | |
and now put it on the table, | 26:11 | |
but they have yet beat anybody with it. | 26:12 | |
After phase three was introduced, | 26:15 | |
most of these estimates went up to three and a quarter | 26:19 | |
through three quarters, four percent. | 26:22 | |
Since I though the estimates previously | 26:27 | |
were a little bit on the overly optimistic side | 26:29 | |
and I'm not alone in thinking this. | 26:33 | |
Many monetarists have also thought this | 26:34 | |
and then I had to take their new numbers | 26:37 | |
and still add something on. | 26:42 | |
And so although I have to reserve judgment | 26:43 | |
until we see how the wage settlements break. | 26:49 | |
How the Arabic Workers' Affair | 26:54 | |
or whether the team stirs later in the spring. | 26:57 | |
(indistinct) with the general guidelines. | 27:03 | |
I think there is reason, | 27:06 | |
as a betting man to have some apprehension on this score. | 27:09 | |
The result is that there will be increasing anxiety | 27:12 | |
in the country about inflation. | 27:16 | |
There will be increasing apprehension | 27:18 | |
and anxiety in Washington. | 27:21 | |
And the forces that urge upon the Federal Reserve | 27:23 | |
sharply contractionary policy will grow in strength. | 27:31 | |
The forces that urge upon the budget | 27:36 | |
sharply contractionary policy will grow in strength. | 27:40 | |
And it's out of the working's out, | 27:45 | |
I think of such forces that the next period of stagnation, | 27:48 | |
the next period of recession will be bred. | 27:54 | |
This process can be helped of course | 27:58 | |
by the natural forces of over exuberance in the system. | 28:01 | |
If inventory accumulation moves up to | 28:03 | |
a 12 billion annual rate in some quarters | 28:06 | |
then onto 15 then onto 18. | 28:11 | |
You have very many of those and you will naturally | 28:13 | |
get an overstocking in the economy | 28:15 | |
and there will be natural forces working for stagnation | 28:18 | |
and recession reinforcing | 28:22 | |
the contractionary forces of rushing. | 28:24 | |
Now all of this is not inevitable. | 28:28 | |
There is something that can be done about it. | 28:31 | |
It seems to me that the proper policy | 28:34 | |
is not at all times study as you go. | 28:38 | |
Just agree upon what kind of a budget you want | 28:40 | |
on the social philosophical grounds agreed upon | 28:44 | |
what rate of growth of money supply you want. | 28:47 | |
That's not the council which I would urge. | 28:50 | |
It seems to me that the best council | 28:53 | |
is lean against the wind that your best judgment tells you | 28:56 | |
is gonna prevail in the next six months. | 29:00 | |
Unless that wind is blowing in exactly the right direction | 29:03 | |
for a healthy American economy. | 29:06 | |
And that's why I have been supporting the movement | 29:08 | |
for moderation on the credit front | 29:14 | |
for five or six months now. | 29:17 | |
Including the period when the Federal Reserve | 29:20 | |
had a slow growth in the money supply. | 29:23 | |
And that is why on budgetary grounds | 29:26 | |
I think that the case is strong for restraint. | 29:30 | |
Instructor | If you have any comments or questions | 29:35 |
for Professor Samuelson, address them to | 29:39 | |
Instructional Dynamics Incorporated | 29:41 | |
166 East Superior Street, | 29:43 | |
Chicago, Illinois 60611. | 29:45 |
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