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- | Hello again and welcome, | 0:02 |
as Professor Paul Samuelson looks at economics. | 0:03 | |
This bi-weekly services produced and recorded | 0:06 | |
by Instructional Dynamics Incorporated | 0:09 | |
and is designed to give our listeners | 0:11 | |
an inside look at the changing developments and trends | 0:13 | |
in the economic picture. | 0:15 | |
This is the week of June 23rd. | 0:17 | |
Professor Samuelson, we have a question here | 0:19 | |
from a subscriber, it reads as follows. | 0:21 | |
One of the most valuable things one can get from an expert | 0:24 | |
is his opinion on the views of other experts. | 0:27 | |
If the experts agree, that is one thing if they disagree, | 0:29 | |
that is quite something else and something valuable to know. | 0:32 | |
All this is a prelude to the following question. | 0:36 | |
Do you agree with the view that America | 0:40 | |
has no balance of payments problem? | 0:42 | |
That we do not have to worry about gold in the free market, | 0:44 | |
and that we don't have to worry about gold or deficits | 0:47 | |
and the official club of 10 ie and the official tier | 0:50 | |
of the two tier gold system? | 0:53 | |
- | I don't think I do fully agree. | 0:55 |
First we have had since a year ago, March | 0:59 | |
a two tier gold system. | 1:02 | |
I don't think we have to worry much | 1:06 | |
about what happens to the price of gold | 1:09 | |
in the unofficial tier. | 1:12 | |
If I were a South African central banker | 1:14 | |
or government official, I'd spend too much of my time | 1:17 | |
worrying about that market. | 1:20 | |
But we're not South Africa and are only concerned | 1:23 | |
with what happens to the price of gold in Zurich, | 1:27 | |
or in London in the free market. | 1:31 | |
Whether it is $41, whether it runs up to $45, | 1:33 | |
whether it dips below $39, | 1:37 | |
is as a symptom of international uneasiness | 1:43 | |
and perhaps as an omen of crisis in exchange rates, | 1:49 | |
and in foreign exchange markets to come. | 1:56 | |
It used to be thought when the two tier | 2:00 | |
gold system was first set up, | 2:02 | |
that we should be very much concerned | 2:04 | |
as to whether the price of gold in the free markets | 2:07 | |
gets too high above $35 an ounce. | 2:12 | |
The thought here was that if it was $40 an ounce, | 2:16 | |
and only 35 in the official market, | 2:21 | |
then some obscure little central bank, | 2:26 | |
the blondes, the official market would not be much tempted | 2:30 | |
to try to cheat to try to get some gold | 2:33 | |
at the low official price and feed it openly | 2:36 | |
or surreptitiously into the free market | 2:39 | |
for a little arbitrage profit. | 2:43 | |
But if gold it was said rose to $55 an ounce | 2:46 | |
or some outlandish figure like that in the free market, | 2:50 | |
then that $20 discrepancy would be too great. | 2:53 | |
And the temptation would be so strong that the system | 2:58 | |
would develop leaks and would finally break down. | 3:02 | |
That was a legitimate fear when we had no experience | 3:06 | |
with the new system. | 3:08 | |
But as far as I can make out the people who know | 3:09 | |
a lot about these things and worry about them a lot | 3:13 | |
do not have as our number one worry | 3:16 | |
the fact or the possibility that some central bank | 3:19 | |
may get out of line and try to arbitrage | 3:24 | |
between the two systems. | 3:26 | |
I think the greater concern is how our balances | 3:29 | |
in international trade to be settled | 3:34 | |
within the official system. | 3:37 | |
Now there is a view which my colleague at MIT | 3:39 | |
Professor Charles Kindleberger represents, | 3:44 | |
which says that the dollar is a key currency. | 3:47 | |
It's about the only key currency. | 3:50 | |
New York is the only big capital market in the world today, | 3:53 | |
and the dollar is better than gold, | 3:57 | |
and that America in a fact is a banker for the whole world. | 4:00 | |
Now we all know that domestically a bank can create money. | 4:05 | |
People like convenience of bank accounts, | 4:08 | |
and they leave their money at no interest rates | 4:11 | |
or low interest rates with the bank | 4:13 | |
because of the convenience of holding reserves in that form. | 4:15 | |
And this is like a license on the part of the banker | 4:19 | |
to steal, or rather a license to counterfeit. | 4:23 | |
And so according to the Duprey Kindleberger slant argument | 4:27 | |
to name the principal exponents of this view, | 4:32 | |
America has a license to counterfeit, | 4:36 | |
it's very wrong to look for a zero balance in our payments, | 4:38 | |
as power equilibrium. | 4:43 | |
The proper balance is for us to run a considerable deficit. | 4:45 | |
This is because of the counterfeit money | 4:51 | |
which we're putting abroad. | 4:53 | |
Now, I agree by and large that there is an element | 4:55 | |
of truth in that. | 4:58 | |
I think there's a great deal of exaggeration | 4:59 | |
when the doctrine sometimes takes the form | 5:02 | |
that we can issue any amount of this that we like. | 5:04 | |
Because I don't believe that sound economics | 5:07 | |
within a country as far as a single | 5:09 | |
domestic bank is concerned, or as far as the domestic | 5:11 | |
banking system even is concerned, | 5:15 | |
that any amount of IOUs can be issued | 5:18 | |
by the banking system and the public | 5:23 | |
will have to absorb them. | 5:27 | |
That would take me into the mechanics of central banking | 5:29 | |
within a country I don't want to go into that. | 5:31 | |
The truth is, that if the dollar were as good as gold | 5:37 | |
if the $35 an ounce within the official family | 5:41 | |
was a an equilibrium rate, | 5:46 | |
and if the cross rates between the dollar and the Franc, | 5:48 | |
the French Franc and the Belgian Franc, | 5:53 | |
and the Mark and the Pound if these were all | 5:55 | |
in approximate equilibrium, then the United States | 5:59 | |
could count upon financing part of her equilibrium deficit, | 6:03 | |
through the issuing of money. | 6:09 | |
That means the foreigners would like to hold dollars | 6:12 | |
for part of their reserves. | 6:15 | |
I should like however, to give a warning about the this. | 6:17 | |
It used to be thought that when the counterfeit | 6:21 | |
or the bank issued money, | 6:23 | |
he issued money that carried no interest rates. | 6:25 | |
I think that when interest rates are as high | 6:29 | |
as they are in the world today, that you will get | 6:31 | |
not very far in trying to issue | 6:34 | |
money that bears no interest at all. | 6:37 | |
And if we did not have Regulation Q and other regulations | 6:40 | |
preventing demand deposits from carrying interest, | 6:44 | |
I'm sure that the banks within the United States | 6:46 | |
would find that they would have to pay interest | 6:49 | |
on their demand deposits. | 6:52 | |
Now, the important is this for international economics | 6:54 | |
is this, that people if they thought the dollar | 6:57 | |
was as good as gold abroad, and I now included as people, | 7:00 | |
the official central banks and the official | 7:05 | |
finance ministries abroad, | 7:09 | |
they would surely like to hold dollars, | 7:11 | |
but that mustn't give you the vision | 7:13 | |
of them holding greenbacks. | 7:16 | |
And it mustn't give you the vision of them holding | 7:17 | |
demand deposits that pay no interest. | 7:19 | |
That Southern America gets a complete gift | 7:22 | |
by this License to counterfeit. | 7:24 | |
On the contrary, what they would like to hold | 7:28 | |
are dollar securities, | 7:31 | |
which these days would pay quite a high interest. | 7:33 | |
I don't say that they would necessarily have the 10%, 11% | 7:36 | |
and 12% rates, which prevail in this time of stringency, | 7:39 | |
in the euro dollar markets. | 7:44 | |
But they would certainly be as high as the treasury | 7:46 | |
bill rate them as the commercial paper rate | 7:49 | |
because central bank can hold these securities | 7:52 | |
and know that it could catch them in very quickly. | 7:56 | |
So this is not quite the gift that | 8:00 | |
the older view of the right to counterfeit might be. | 8:03 | |
Let me hasten on, 'cause I want to get | 8:08 | |
on to some other questions. | 8:12 | |
And let me turn to a still a different view, | 8:13 | |
which is that the America is in the saddle | 8:15 | |
within the official family, if anybody wants the gold | 8:19 | |
he knows he can't have it, and therefore | 8:21 | |
he will not ask for it and therefore we have no concern. | 8:24 | |
I think it is correct that a big single central bank | 8:28 | |
to whom we owe a $3 billion | 8:33 | |
could not on any Monday morning present | 8:37 | |
a bill and say we'd like the $3 billion that you owe us, | 8:41 | |
and we would like it all in gold. | 8:45 | |
I think that would break up the present system. | 8:46 | |
But I don't think that, that's something, | 8:50 | |
that event when it happened is something harmless | 8:52 | |
no worse than a bad cold and which we could shrug off | 8:55 | |
and and laugh at and say there is no balance | 8:59 | |
of payments problem. | 9:01 | |
On the contrary, I think that if that the unhappy | 9:02 | |
day should arrive, it would be a prelude | 9:06 | |
to a certain amount of anarchy and chaos | 9:08 | |
in the international finance markets. | 9:11 | |
Now, let me try to describe what I mean by that. | 9:14 | |
We have had a tremendous increase in the volume | 9:17 | |
of real international trade in the post war period. | 9:20 | |
No profits that I know had forecast 20 years ago, | 9:24 | |
quite how the volume of real international trade would grow. | 9:28 | |
We do not have a free trade world, we have moved more | 9:33 | |
towards a free or trade. | 9:36 | |
This has been an international division of labor. | 9:37 | |
It has been extremely valuable to the importers, | 9:39 | |
to the exporters' to the capital importer, | 9:42 | |
to the capital exporters. | 9:46 | |
It is a very important and very wonderful thing, | 9:47 | |
but it is not something which was given to us by God | 9:50 | |
and which will stay with us forever. | 9:53 | |
If the official tier system breaks down, | 9:57 | |
I do not think that we will go painlessly | 10:02 | |
to a new set of floating exchange rates, | 10:05 | |
with new equilibrium being attained very rapidly. | 10:08 | |
And therefore, all of our crying about balance of payments | 10:13 | |
was for not and was quite unnecessary. | 10:16 | |
What I think is more likely to happen, | 10:20 | |
what I fear will happen, and what I know no expert | 10:23 | |
can assure us will not happen, | 10:27 | |
would be the following: | 10:29 | |
That the common market countries of Europe | 10:30 | |
would become very panicky if the dollar started | 10:34 | |
to float downward and what they consider | 10:38 | |
undue manner and they could rationally | 10:41 | |
do certain things to protect themselves against that | 10:45 | |
or they could countenance that. | 10:48 | |
But what I fear is that finance minister Strauss in Germany | 10:49 | |
would not do the rational thing. | 10:54 | |
I don't think that the post AGOA government of Papa Do | 10:56 | |
would necessarily do the rational thing. | 11:00 | |
And you might have one clear, rational voice | 11:02 | |
of Carly in Italy at the Central Bank | 11:06 | |
stating what might be the rational thing, | 11:09 | |
but I think it is very likely, I don't say | 11:12 | |
that the probability is 90% and it doesn't matter | 11:14 | |
from my argument if the probability is only 35%, | 11:18 | |
but I think it's very likely that you would get some | 11:21 | |
comprehensive exchange controls | 11:24 | |
on the part of the common market. | 11:27 | |
There would be retaliation against the American flooding | 11:29 | |
of goods or really the threat of the flooding of goods. | 11:34 | |
The threats are often really empty threats. | 11:37 | |
But I think in international trade there is a xenophobia, | 11:42 | |
and a paranoia that is even greater | 11:45 | |
than in domestic affairs. | 11:47 | |
And I think that that unhappy cataclysm | 11:49 | |
that I'm talking about would not be something unimportant. | 11:52 | |
I think it's something that would set us back | 11:55 | |
three or four or five years we look very painfully, | 11:58 | |
and very slowly climb back to an international | 12:00 | |
division of labor. | 12:04 | |
So what we have is something in the international finance, | 12:05 | |
like the stalemate on the Roman front. | 12:09 | |
We have a balance of terror. | 12:14 | |
The Americans can say to the common market countries, | 12:16 | |
"You upset the apple cart and you will bring down | 12:20 | |
the avalanche of chaos in exchange controls." | 12:23 | |
I think that we have that the blackmail power | 12:31 | |
but I think that that is not something | 12:34 | |
which will necessarily hold and I think | 12:36 | |
that there is a great deal to worry about | 12:39 | |
in connection with the balance of payments. | 12:42 | |
So, to our questioner I would say write this down | 12:45 | |
in your little black book, | 12:48 | |
as not one of those areas in which the experts | 12:49 | |
are all in agreement and this particular semi expert warns | 12:52 | |
you that the balance of payments situation of United States | 12:56 | |
still is a very serious one. | 13:00 | |
The trade fingers are very bad. | 13:03 | |
I am anticipating that sometime if it hasn't already | 13:06 | |
happened a lot of the hot and cool money | 13:10 | |
which has come so eagerly into Wall Street | 13:13 | |
will cease to come into Wall Street | 13:16 | |
as our Dow Jones averages languish and you might | 13:19 | |
even get an exodus outward. | 13:22 | |
And so we will not have cosmetically on capital account | 13:25 | |
disguise of what's been happening in uncurrent account | 13:30 | |
in the wave of deterioration. | 13:35 | |
- | Professor Samuelson, several of our listeners have written | 13:36 |
in asking that you comment on the present | 13:39 | |
stock market outlook. | 13:41 | |
- | I'm always reluctant to speak in my capacity | 13:43 |
as a PhD in economics on the subject as to what's going | 13:46 | |
to happen to the stock market. | 13:51 | |
I refuse to make any prophecies in this particular area, | 13:54 | |
if I had the confidence in my opinions, | 13:58 | |
I might stick my neck out | 14:01 | |
but I have no particular confidence. | 14:03 | |
Let me however comment on what seemed to me | 14:06 | |
to be four conflicting factors that are bearing | 14:10 | |
upon the present stock market in Wall Street. | 14:15 | |
There are as to my mind a couple of bearish factors. | 14:21 | |
And to my mind there are a couple of bullish factors. | 14:25 | |
I don't mean that you can just count factors up | 14:29 | |
and factors down and then take the net difference | 14:34 | |
between those integers. | 14:38 | |
You have to have to wait them and I'm not going to pretend | 14:40 | |
to give you a definitive way of waiting them. | 14:43 | |
What are the bearish factors? | 14:47 | |
The first bearish factor seems to me | 14:49 | |
is the hardness of money. | 14:51 | |
With interest rates at the eight and a half percent | 14:54 | |
on the prime rate, perhaps is going go up again, | 14:58 | |
with margin accounts having to pay well over 9%, | 15:01 | |
the in many cases over 10% with euro dollar rates, | 15:07 | |
having gone to 10, 11 and 12% and make no mistake about it, | 15:11 | |
people are paying these rates, you've got to be awfully good | 15:15 | |
in investing in equities. | 15:19 | |
To beat that kind of handicap. | 15:21 | |
There must be a lot of people in Wall Street | 15:24 | |
who haven't made any money on equities | 15:27 | |
in the last three or four years. | 15:31 | |
If you look at the principal indexes which are about | 15:32 | |
where they were two or three, four years ago. | 15:35 | |
And in the meantime, they have been paying out | 15:38 | |
a very high interest rates to carry their accounts. | 15:41 | |
In addition, there's a even larger group who don't borrow | 15:44 | |
in order to buy stocks, but who have the opportunity cost | 15:48 | |
or alternative of investing in short term | 15:52 | |
fixed interest securities. | 15:56 | |
I say short term because we've had a bear market | 15:59 | |
in long term bonds, because interest rates have been | 16:02 | |
rising and have not stabilized. | 16:04 | |
So that's the first factor. | 16:07 | |
The second factor is that they real economy is beginning | 16:09 | |
to slow down, I've commented enough on that. | 16:12 | |
Let me simply say that it means that profits | 16:14 | |
are in considerable danger of eroding away for some time, | 16:17 | |
and the market tries to look ahead | 16:22 | |
and the market has taken note of this. | 16:24 | |
Well, that explains it very well why the market | 16:26 | |
should wander downward. | 16:30 | |
Why shouldn't have done it faster and even more? | 16:32 | |
Well, a couple of bullish factors. | 16:36 | |
One, there is the problem of peace. | 16:38 | |
The market seems to be a dove. | 16:42 | |
A Time magazine picked up an image that I mentioned | 16:45 | |
to one of the interviewers of the bullish dove, | 16:50 | |
or devilish bull and showed a picture in a recent issue | 16:53 | |
of a bull with wings. | 16:57 | |
The prospect of peace has been a factor which has kept | 17:03 | |
the market up. | 17:06 | |
But of course you can form your own judgment | 17:07 | |
as to how much near we are two piece. | 17:10 | |
I think myself that president Nixon is smart enough | 17:12 | |
to realize that this is a losing war | 17:16 | |
and that he's going to cut his losses one way or the other | 17:18 | |
and that the market probably will keep | 17:21 | |
this in the back of its mind. | 17:25 | |
The second bullish factor is inflation itself. | 17:27 | |
If the country is going to the dogs | 17:34 | |
because inflation is snowballing, | 17:35 | |
that doesn't make cash very attractive. | 17:38 | |
And although equities are not all that lovely | 17:40 | |
under the circumstances that were describing, | 17:46 | |
they're better than cash. | 17:47 | |
Equities, of course, are great as an inflation hedge | 17:50 | |
if it's the old fashioned kind of demand pull inflation | 17:53 | |
but if you are getting cost push, | 17:56 | |
and I think that this year we're getting a good deal | 17:59 | |
of wage cost push, | 18:01 | |
We're getting way to settlements | 18:03 | |
of nine and 10% in some cases. | 18:05 | |
This is the inheritance of past demand pull inflation. | 18:06 | |
Such an inflation is not all that good for profits. | 18:10 | |
But what can you do | 18:14 | |
if you've got to put your money somewhere? | 18:15 | |
- | Professor Samuelson, another subscriber writes and asks, | 18:17 |
we enjoyed your first tape commenting | 18:20 | |
on what is scientifically known about the stock market | 18:22 | |
and look forward to its continuation. | 18:25 | |
Is there any chance that you would comment on the scientific | 18:27 | |
knowledge known about commodity markets | 18:30 | |
and commodity trading? | 18:32 | |
- | I haven't too much time left today. | 18:33 |
but let me begin on this matter. | 18:36 | |
Most of the large brokerage concerns belong | 18:40 | |
to the Board of Trade into various markets | 18:44 | |
and to exchanges and so your friendly customers man | 18:46 | |
will not only take an order from you to buy a stock | 18:50 | |
or to buy a bond, or to sell a stock short | 18:54 | |
but he will also take an order from you, | 18:57 | |
to buy a contract in pot bellies, or in the Platinum, | 19:01 | |
or in silver, or with equal equanimity, | 19:05 | |
he will take a contract from you to sell silver, | 19:09 | |
to sell soybean meal and so forth. | 19:13 | |
Now, obviously, most of the customers of these | 19:16 | |
brokerage houses have nothing to do with the milling | 19:20 | |
industry or the farming industry or the potato industry. | 19:25 | |
They are not grinders of wheat into flour, | 19:29 | |
rather, they are people with sporting blood, | 19:34 | |
who see that there's a lot of action up and down | 19:38 | |
in the commodities and for them, for many of them, | 19:41 | |
I think it can be said that it is a casino. | 19:43 | |
It's the a licensed way to gamble. | 19:48 | |
Now, I can't say this with complete certainty, | 19:53 | |
because we don't have a great deal of information | 19:57 | |
about these matters, | 20:00 | |
we don't have something like the SCC, | 20:01 | |
which gathers so much in the way of statistics | 20:04 | |
and requires so much in the way of reports | 20:07 | |
from the securities industry. | 20:09 | |
We do have regulation by various commodity agencies, | 20:11 | |
they will, for example, require you if you are a hedger | 20:16 | |
to make that clear. | 20:21 | |
If you take position of beyond a certain amount | 20:23 | |
that has to be reported, this is protection against coners. | 20:27 | |
Those of you who read Frank Norris's great novel, | 20:31 | |
The Pit, the story of a coner, | 20:37 | |
early in the century of the Chicago Board of Trade | 20:40 | |
that week market will know what the old fashioned | 20:43 | |
manipulation of commodity markets was like. | 20:46 | |
Well, there isn't too much of that today I think. | 20:50 | |
Well, as I say the little we know about this | 20:53 | |
scientifically is amazing. | 20:57 | |
I've seen a number of studies and where | 21:00 | |
do they get their raw material? | 21:04 | |
For example, is it true that little people losing | 21:05 | |
in the commodity market? | 21:08 | |
I think that the evidence points in that direction. | 21:09 | |
But we do not have comprehensive evidence, | 21:14 | |
we get evidence from samples of the following sort. | 21:17 | |
A particular large brokerage house failed | 21:21 | |
before World War II. | 21:25 | |
And so it's records became available to researchers. | 21:27 | |
I have seen and learned journals a number of articles | 21:31 | |
doing a post mortem on how the customers of that house did. | 21:34 | |
Now the economist who wrote these articles say in footnotes, | 21:38 | |
we are assuming that this sample from this brokerage house | 21:43 | |
is typical of the universe of all speculators. | 21:48 | |
And if that assumption is wrong, | 21:52 | |
you the reader must take into account | 21:54 | |
the bias that's been imparted by our selection. | 21:56 | |
Well, what are we to think? | 22:00 | |
I think it is a bias, because it is the experience | 22:02 | |
of anyone who has observed the brokerage business | 22:06 | |
that the customers man is more than a conduit. | 22:10 | |
He is more than an order boy who was conveying | 22:14 | |
the buy and sell orders of the customer | 22:17 | |
who is a sovereign customer. | 22:20 | |
Quite the contrary, most small people in the stock market | 22:23 | |
and most small people certainly in the commodity market, | 22:29 | |
are in fact taking their cue on whether to buy soybeans | 22:31 | |
or whether to sell soybeans from the customers man himself. | 22:35 | |
And so if this brokerage has failed, | 22:39 | |
I think it is a fair thing to assume | 22:42 | |
that its customers did not do as well as the customers | 22:45 | |
of houses that did not fail. | 22:50 | |
There was a so to speak a correlation between the fate | 22:52 | |
of the brokerage house and the fate of the customers | 22:56 | |
and you must take that into account. | 22:59 | |
Well, to go on to what is known scientifically, | 23:02 | |
there are lots of informed people as well | 23:06 | |
as uninformed people who are scrutinizing the weather | 23:09 | |
in Kansas when the wheat crop is being planted, | 23:12 | |
when the wheat crop is being harvested. | 23:15 | |
Every day, there is a change in the quotation | 23:18 | |
of Kansas City wheat. | 23:22 | |
There is a change every minute and the marketplace | 23:24 | |
brings together all these little bits of information. | 23:28 | |
Now, I think it's fair to say that there is a Darwinian | 23:31 | |
process of selection going on. | 23:35 | |
If you find a man who has been in the commodity market | 23:38 | |
speculating business steadily for 15 years, | 23:41 | |
you are looking at a very sturdy Tiger | 23:44 | |
who has survived in that jungle. | 23:48 | |
Where a brokers customers are concerned in connection | 23:52 | |
with stocks, if you take us an audit today, | 23:55 | |
and 10 years from now, go back to that same broker, | 24:01 | |
you will find a vast number of the same customers | 24:03 | |
at a 10 year interval. | 24:07 | |
Of course, some people change to other brokers, | 24:10 | |
some people move, some people die. | 24:12 | |
But there's a great continuity. | 24:13 | |
I am convinced if the same thing could be done, | 24:15 | |
although I can approve this, you will find that among | 24:18 | |
those brokers who specialize in commodities, | 24:21 | |
that it is a very changing group of customers | 24:24 | |
who form the clientele. | 24:28 | |
And that is because most of the people | 24:29 | |
come into the into the commodity speculating activity, | 24:33 | |
stay in for a little while, lose their $3,000 or 5000, | 24:36 | |
$7,000 have learned a lesson at least for the moment | 24:41 | |
and go out never to return. | 24:44 | |
So the first thing that we know scientifically | 24:47 | |
I believe about the commodities is, | 24:49 | |
stay away from it unless you have some special knowledge. | 24:51 | |
It is what economists call a zero sum game. | 24:55 | |
When Peter plays with Paul, | 25:01 | |
what Peter wins Paul loses. | 25:03 | |
The stock market is not a zero sum game. | 25:07 | |
Stupid suburban ladies who consult their horoscopes | 25:11 | |
before their investment club makes their decisions | 25:16 | |
can make money in the stock market. | 25:19 | |
Every fool can make money in the stock market, | 25:21 | |
if the country grows if the inflation takes place, | 25:24 | |
because the total value of stocks rise. | 25:27 | |
In fact, the proper way to appraise a person's performance | 25:30 | |
is not where they lost money or not, | 25:33 | |
but whether you made as much money as he should have made | 25:35 | |
on the average. | 25:38 | |
The stock market is not a zero sum game. | 25:39 | |
Commodity markets by and large are the smart takeaway | 25:42 | |
from the stupid and unless you are especially well informed, | 25:46 | |
it's something to stay away from. | 25:53 | |
Now in some future tape if I have a little more time | 25:55 | |
I'd like to go into what we know about the random mark | 25:58 | |
character of commodity prices. | 26:02 | |
I'd like to say a few things about technical methods | 26:04 | |
as against fundamental methods. | 26:07 | |
And who knows, I might even say what in my judgment | 26:10 | |
are the few ways that informed people | 26:15 | |
can make money on the average in the commodity market, | 26:18 | |
but certainly that's too tall in order for today. | 26:22 | |
- | Thank you Professor Samuelson. | 26:25 |
If you have comments, questions or suggestions | 26:28 | |
write Instructional Dynamics Incorporated | 26:30 | |
166 East superior Street, Chicago | 26:33 | |
six, O, six, one, one. | 26:36 |
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